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Juneau Business get involved in ‘Safe Place Program’ for youth in crisis.

NOTN- A new program aimed at helping youth in crisis is launching in Juneau through a partnership between the Shéiyi Xaat Hít Youth Shelter, Tlingit and Haida, first responders and local businesses.

The Safe Place program provides immediate help for young people ages 10 to 17 who need safety or support. Participating businesses and organizations display a black-and-yellow Safe Place sign, letting youth know they can come inside and ask for help.

Employees will contact staff at the Shéiyi Xaat Hít Youth Shelter, who will respond within 30 minutes to provide crisis support and connect youth with needed resources.

Organizers say the program expands the safety net for vulnerable youth, including those who are homeless, have run away, or are at risk of doing so.

“Although we’ve served a record number of youth at the shelter over the last year, we know that there’s many more who need help. Safe Place is a great way for us to expand the safety net of support for youth in Juneau,” shares Hannah Jenkins, Outreach Coordinator at Shéiyi Xaat Hít.  

Initial Safe Place locations include Juneau fire stations, the Juneau Police Department, the Zach Gordon Youth Center, the Southeast Alaska Food Bank, Glacier Cinemas, Kindred Post, Dimond Park Aquatic Center, and Augustus Brown swimming pool. 

Youth can find a Safe Place by looking for the black and yellow signs on businesses, searching the list of current Safe Places at bit.ly/SheiyiXaatHit, or texting their location and the word “safe” to TXT-4-HELP (44357). 

A community launch party was held at the Zach Gordon Youth Center on Friday.

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City budget Passes, more cuts loom if revenue does not increase next year

City Hall packed with Juneau residents ready to testify on the FY27 budget, courtesy of CBJ

NOTN- The Juneau Assembly held an extensive meeting last night on the FY27 budget, it was also the last opportunity for public testimony.

During the meeting, city leaders moved ahead with a strained city budget that still trims popular services, including reduced funding for the Juneau Douglas City Museum, the closure of Mount Jumbo Gym, reduced funding for Travel Juneau and Jensen Olsen Arboretum.

It does however preserve both pools, the Diamond Park Fieldhouse and the Douglas Fire station.

Early in the evening officials approved a major change to the city’s sales tax code, raising the cap on single-item purchases to $50,000.

The final version also keeps a lower effective cap in place for most vehicle purchases.

“The situation that we find ourselves in is drastic.” Said Finance Chair Christine Woll, “If we pass the budget that we have put forward tonight, we will have passed a balanced budget, but only because we have eliminated all of our savings to do so. And next year we will look at a $7 million deficit that we will have not have savings to fill.”

Woll warned that without new revenue, the city could be forced to consider closing pools, Eaglecrest Ski Area, the city museum and other services next year.

The Assembly also passed separate measures to tax more onboard cruise ship sales, end a $30 online filing credit for businesses, and advanced debate on repealing a sales tax exemption for travel agent commissions, which small tour operators say would amount to double taxation.

Public testimony earlier in the meeting again targeted the planned $9 million demolition of Telephone Hill, with residents urging the Assembly to redirect that money to schools, housing and cultural institutions instead.

“I urge the assembly to take the $9 million that has been earmarked for the demolition and site work of Telephone Hill and diverted into something that the people want and need, that money belongs to the people of Juneau, and we should get a say in how it is used.” Said Joshua Adams.

Before passage of the FY 2027 budget, residents turned out in force to defend the Juneau‑Douglas City Museum.

“At a time when indigenous land acknowledgements are being removed from public places across the country, this assembly chooses to read one at the start of every meeting. By doing so, you honor a vital part of Juneau’s history, but we must ask ourselves, are we just talking the talk, or are we willing to walk the walk? Just as families cherish their history through heirlooms and photos, our community preserves our identity through the Juneau Douglas City Museum.” Said testifier Jean Mcbride.

Residents warned that deep staff cuts would “devastate” programs, erode public trust and jeopardize thousands of volunteer hours and donated artifacts.

“We’ve all been to the City Museum, and we all love the City Museum. Why in the dickens are you cutting half of its operating budget?” One testifier, Chuck Cohen said, “It doesn’t make any sense. It’s a very small percentage of a very large budget, and we have to get rid of the main director of the museum and the person responsible for public participation, that’s public participation by our children and by ourselves. I think you folks are very short-sighted.”

An effort to fully restore museum funding failed.

“I know that it’s not a large amount. I don’t know how much of an impact it will have, but I don’t feel right asking the community to give up so much.” Said Assembly Member Nano Brooks.

Members “begrudgingly” as Woll put it, passed the roughly $545 million budget, but they still did not meet their goal to cut $2 million in costs.

“I don’t want to make this cut. I don’t, I believe everything everyone said about what the impact will be long term for the museum, even if we want to live in a world where we get to bring the City Museum back, the same thing’s going to happen with Travel Juneau and Eaglecrest, they are going to suffer for the cuts that we are, right now, planning on making to them.” Woll said, “Our fund balance right now is one bad sales tax quarter away from having no funds to deal with our expenses, let alone a major natural disaster or other disaster, and we live in an uncertain world, and that’s what our fund balance is for.”

In a separate 5-4 vote, the Assembly also rejected a to shift $360,000 in marine passenger fees away from security and restroom costs at two private cruise docks and into a seawalk expansion project.

Some members argued cruise companies already collect enough in dock fees to cover those services and said residents don’t understand why the city isn’t “getting more benefit from the industry”

The Assembly moved ahead with a lower property tax rate, the long-term capital improvement plan, and several flood and wastewater projects backed by state revolving fund loans.

“This ordinance sets the mill rate at 9.29” Said City Manager Katie Koester.

With flood season approaching, officials are inviting residents to a public flood preparedness open house tonight, as they weigh costly long‑term protections for riverfront neighborhoods.

Representatives from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, the City and Borough of Juneau, the National Weather Service and the Central Council of the Tlingit & Haida Indian Tribes of Alaska will meet with residents  at 6 p.m. at Thunder Mountain Middle School to discuss risks and answer questions.

Officials said they are moving ahead on a “midterm solution” while reinforcing existing defenses this year, but warned that conditions and plans continue to shift.

The city expects annual maintenance for temporary Hesco barriers could run $6 million to $12 million, a cost that could drop if sheet piling is installed as a stronger, permanent river reinforcement.

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Jackie Renninger Park taking shape at community ‘open house’

NOTN- City officials unveiled plans for the Jackie Renninger Park and invited the public to a Park Day over the weekend to review the design and give feedback.

Parks and Recreation Director Mark and Chris of Corvus Design say the plan fits many features into about five acres: eight pickleball courts, a covered street‑style skate park to replace an aging pipeline structure, the city’s first covered playground, a dog park, restrooms, a community gathering space for food carts and events, a loop fitness trail, a small multi‑use court, and disc golf.

“We’ve actually been working on the park design for about three years, starting off with a master planning effort and a pretty robust public involvement process. It’s a lot going into a five-acre park.” Said Chris.

Saturday’s open house, community barbecue and comment period aimed to explain the importance of recreation opportunities in what Mark called an underserved area of Juneau.

“It’s really big for quality of life for all of us here in Juneau to have those recreation spaces, those park spaces, but it’s also great for property values.” Mark said, “Getting people active and involved is better for health and better for the economy in lots of ways. When we look at the whole of Juneau, it’s pretty underserved in terms of parks, so we really want to spread parks all around our community.”

Pro skaters Kanten Russell and Brandon Turner also attended, leading an open skate and skate competition.

Chris and Mark say skilled concrete work and securing funding are the biggest challenges ahead.

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City budget will draw heavily on city savings, bond proposals discussed for ballot

NOTN- The city is weighing two proposed bonds and finalizing a budget that city leaders say will draw down nearly all available savings as they prepare for a difficult fiscal year.

Christine Woll, chair of the finance committee, said that the assembly has discussed placing two questions on the October ballot: a just under $10 million bond to bolster water and wastewater infrastructure and about a  $16 million bond to fund roof and heating system repairs at several schools.

“We have, as a community, not been keeping up with with the long-term maintenance needs of our water and wastewater infrastructure, and so this would give that fund a bit of a boost so we can do some projects there, and ideally keep rates for utilities lower as a result.” Woll said, “Then the second bond we’re looking at would help make some needed repairs to some of our school infrastructure.”

The assembly has a short period of time to decide whether to present the measures to voters.

“We have about a month to finalize whether we’re going to put that on the ballot.” Woll said.

The final vote on the fiscal 2027 budget, which begins July 1, is scheduled for Monday night, which will also be the final opportunity for public testimony.

The draft budget already includes significant cuts and is expected to draw substantial community participation.

“The draft budget that we put together for this year does have some significant cuts, but it draws pretty much all of the money left in the city savings out to fund the next year.” Woll said, “So if things continue the way they are, we will be back here in about a year talking about even more cuts. Monday is a big milestone for getting this year’s budget done, but this conversation is going to have to continue if we want to balance the budget moving forward.”

The assembly’s decision will determine whether voters will be asked to fund the proposed bonds in October, and the outcome of Monday’s meeting will finalize next year’s fiscal path.

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Celebration, Canoe Landing and City Budget Discussion on the Docket in Juneau next week

NOTN- Juneau’s got a busy few weeks ahead as the city prepares for the arrival of the 2026 Canoe Journey and continues discussions on the Fiscal Year 2027 budget.

The Central Council of the Tlingit and Haida will welcome canoes ashore Tuesday, June 2, during the 2026 Canoe Journey Landing in Juneau ahead of Celebration.

Community members, families and visitors are invited to gather for the event.

One landing is scheduled for 1 p.m. at the Áak’w Kwáan Landing at the Auke Village Recreation Area. Parking at Auke Rec is limited, and shuttle service will run from the University of Alaska Southeast between 11 a.m. and 3 p.m.

A second landing is planned for 2 p.m. at the Huna Totem Corp. lot at Egan Drive and Whittier Street downtown.

Celebration begins June 3-6, held by Sealaska Heritage Institute, the theme this year is “Enduring Strength.”

Several city meetings are also scheduled Wednesday, June 3.

The Juneau Commission on Sustainability will hold a regular meeting at noon via Zoom. The Eaglecrest Board Sales and Communications Committee also meets at noon by Zoom.

Later in the day, The Assembly Finance Committee will meet at 5:30 p.m. in Assembly Chambers, with participation also available through Zoom and YouTube livestream, this is ahead of the June 8 Assembly meeting, which city officials say is the final opportunity for public input on the proposed Fiscal Year 2027 budget before adoption.

On May 20, the Assembly Finance Committee adopted nearly $4.7 million in proposed reductions to the budget. The reductions included cuts to partner agency grants, capital projects, city services and the restricted budget reserve.

The Assembly also introduced four ordinances May 27 that would amend the city’s Sales Tax code and generate additional tax revenue.

Those ordinances will also be discussed during the June 8 meeting.

The Assembly must adopt a final budget by June 15.

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Assembly Takes Next Steps to Finalize FY2027 Budget 

CBJ- The City and Borough of Juneau Assembly is nearing the end of the Fiscal Year 2027 budgeting process. Below is an update on the budget actions that took place last week, as well as the next steps required before the Assembly’s June 15 deadline to finalize the budget.  

What’s happened so far: 

Monday, May 18 – Regular Assembly Meeting 

The Assembly adopted the Juneau School District budget for inclusion in the overall CBJ budget.  

Wednesday, May 20 – Assembly Finance Committee Meeting 

The Assembly reviewed, discussed and took action on 21 proposed expenditure reductions to get to a final budget for FY2027.  

The nearly $4.7M in reductions includes a combination of one-time and recurring reductions to partner agency grants, capital projects and CBJ services and programming, including: 

  • $770,000 in cuts to Partner Agency Grants 
  • Reductions to Travel Juneau, Juneau Economic Development Council, the Alaska Committee and Alaska Heat Smart 
  • $1M in cuts to Capital Projects 
  • The Gastineau Avenue Widening & Turnaround project 
  • $507,1000 in cuts to CBJ Services, Operations and Programming 
  • Operational reductions to the City Museum, Parks & Recreation’s Landscaping division and Arboretum, and Administration.  
  • $2.7M in cuts to the Restricted Budget Reserve 
  • $247,000 added as a one-time subsidy to Gastineau Human Services through Bartlett Regional Hospital 

These reductions are not final. They were included in the amended FY2027 budget and moved to the June 8 Assembly Meeting. The public can provide testimony at the June 8 meeting before the Assembly adopts the final budget.  

The Assembly Finance Committee also took action on the following: 

Wednesday, May 27 – Special Assembly Meeting 

The Assembly introduced four ordinances that would amend the CBJ Uniform Sales Tax Code which, if adopted, would result in additional revenue: 

  • Ordinance removing the $30 compensation to sellers that opt to use the online sales tax reporting portal. 
  • Ordinance repealing the sales taxes exemption on commission charged by travel and tour agents 
  • Ordinance expanding the geographic boundaries for which CBJ sales tax must be collected aboard cruise ships while in CBJ waters 
  • Ordinance increasing the sales tax cap on the purchase of a single good or service from $14,300 to $30,000. 

Following introduction, the Assembly set all four ordinances for public hearing at the next regular Assembly meeting on June 8.  

What’s happening next: 

Wednesday, June 3 at 5:30 p.m. – Assembly Finance Committee Meeting 

CBJ’s independent auditors will provide the FY25 Audit Presentation, including their findings and recommendations. The Assembly will also discuss the proposed sales tax ordinances and general obligation bonds on schools and utilities. There will be an update on the Cost Allocation Plan.  

Monday, June 8 at 6 p.m. – Regular Assembly Meeting 

The Assembly will host its final public hearing on the FY 2027 budget. To testify, participants can come to the Assembly Chambers and sign-up. For remote participation, testifiers will need to call the Clerk’s Office at 907-586-5278 by 4 p.m. on the day of the meeting and indicate the topic they will speak on.  

The Assembly will make any needed amendments and adopt a CBJ Budget Ordinance, Mill Levy Ordinance and Capital Improvement Project Resolution (as amended). 

For more information, visit the Civic Clerk website. To share written comment, email boroughassembly@juneau.gov.  

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Douglas Fire Station, Arts Funding survive as Juneau Assembly tightens budget ahead of final passage

Juneau’s Assembly Finance Committee is staring down a major budget deficit for fiscal year 2027.

They inched their way through a long night of budget cutting at a work session last night, trimming around the edges while sparing some of the city’s most debated programs.

Finance Director Angie Flick warned the city cannot afford to end the year in the red.

“You should be projected to be at zero at worst case scenario,”
Flick told the committee, “I think my predecessor and the prior city manager had some conversations with the assembly at the time and suggested $5 or $7 million as a fund balance, and that was based on the spending and the projects that the assembly liked to do. When I went back and looked over the last three years, I would, if I were making a recommendation based on your past to predict your future, I would say you would want $11 to $12 million in your fund balance. There were some significant general fund dollars that went to support the school district when it was in need, there’s been significant one-time dollars that have gone to flood fighting, and then there have been other community priorities that the body has decided to fund, and so you know, based on how the body has approached spending in the past, that would be the kind of fund balance that I would suggest. I think the real pressing concern that’s going to be hard to get around, would be flood fighting as we move forward, and that’s just going to be a tricky one to deal with.”

The current draft budget uses about $8 million in fund balance to cover operating costs, leaving Juneau projected at negative $1.7 million in unrestricted fund balance. Even if a package of fast‑tracked sales tax changes passes, that only improves the outlook modestly.

Members were split over strategy.

Some pushed for deeper cuts now and said they were aiming to leave roughly $5 million in fund balance. Others favored relying more on one‑time project cuts until they know whether new revenue measures or fall ballot initiatives will pass.

In terms of action taken, prior to the June 8 public hearing, members voted 5-4 to cut $75,000 a year from the city’s landscape budget.

Assembly member Neil Steininger was one of those who objected to the cuts saying, “I feel like when we just call this the landscaping budget, it’s kind of a misnomer, because so many other things fit in there. This is a parks maintenance budget, it’s not the flowers downtown, it is not beautification landscape, it is safety considerations, it is cleanliness, it is all of those things. I don’t think when people hear landscape budget they think about trail maintenance. I think it’s an important thing that we spend money on to keep Juneau safe.”

Supporters, said the cut will make residents more aware of what those services cost.

The Assembly also approved a $261,000 recurring cut to the Juneau City Museum, staff said this will mean two layoffs and reduced public access.

Members also voted 5-4 for a one‑time $300,000 cut to the city’s grant for the Juneau Economic Development Council.

A $300,000 cut to staff travel and training was rejected.

Assembly members rejected a deeper, one‑time $250,000 cut to the Affordable Housing Fund, but later agreed to a smaller $150,000 reduction. Several members argued this is the wrong time to pull back on housing dollars.

“It is very hard for me to look at our actions and look at our process and look at where we are trying to go, and the things that people have said no to for cuts, speaking to the importance of their value to the community, and then turn around and say that we can afford a cut like this to the affordable housing fund.” Said Assembly member Alicia Hughes-Skandijs, “It does not make sense to me that rationale.”

The Assembly also kept a subsidy in place for Bartlett Regional Hospital’s home health and hospice program, while directing Bartlett to cover a separate, one‑time $247,000 substance use treatment grant for Gastineau Human Services.

They also approved a $20,000 one‑time cut to the city’s accessory dwelling unit grant program and voted to eliminate general fund support for the Jensen‑Olson Arboretum.

The Assembly declined to reduce funding for the Juneau Arts and Humanities Council or the Small Business Development Center.

A proposal to lease out the Douglas Fire Station failed after the fire chief warned it would worsen the island’s insurance rating and emergency response.

Committee members repeatedly emphasized that none of the reductions are final.

“These are not final decisions, what we are trying to do tonight is come to a holistic budget that we can pass to the full Assembly so that the public can get one more opportunity to give us feedback on it.” Said Finance Director Christine Woll, “Nothing is set in stone until we vote as a full Assembly on June 8.”

A complete budget, including any service cuts and use of savings is expected to go to the full Assembly and the public for a final vote June 8.

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Juneau assembly votes on Eaglecrest and View Drive Buyout program

NOTN- The Juneau Assembly has voted to unwind its controversial gondola deal at Eaglecrest at tonight’s assembly meeting.

Members approved the ordinance to enter negotiations to terminate the revised revenue sharing agreement with Goldbelt and stop the mounting 7% interest charges on the gondola investment.

A follow-up measure, appropriates $12.2 million to repay Goldbelt’s $10 million, plus interest. Both votes passed 8-1, with Assembly Member Nano Brooks in opposition.

Finance Director Christine Woll argued that continuing to delay would only add nearly another $1 million in interest.

“I think we’ve been over where we are with the project and why we can no longer afford to move forward.” She said, “I think we should continue to talk to Goldbelt about the future of Eaglecrest. I think there’s plenty of things that we’ve discussed that could be mutually beneficial in a future partnership, but there is a lot to figure out if that goes forward, and I don’t know why we would do that while there is interest continuing to accumulate. By my math, it would be almost another million dollars if we were to spend a year going down that road, and we would be doing it under duress, because we want to do it quickly.”

The Assembly also took a major step toward buying out the repeatedly flooded homes along View Drive in the Mendenhall Valley.

Members approved $558,000 from the general fund to plan a buyout program with the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Natural Resources Conservation Service. The money will pay for backdated appraisals and cost estimates to demolish homes and restore the land to a natural state.

“Each individual homeowner would have a decision to make as to whether or not they would participate in the buyout program.” Said Deputy City Manager Robert Barr, “There would be a real estate transaction that would occur, NRCs would pay 75% of that appraised value of the house. They will also pay 75% It’s a little bit more complicated than that, but in general, they would also pay 75% of the project costs to demolish and return those properties to that natural state.”

Residents could also publicly testify, using their time to warn city leaders against deep cuts to recreation and to question the future of Telephone Hill development.

Public testimony in the hour prior to the passage of terminating the gondola deal, focused on Eaglecrest and the city’s budget shortfall. Supporters called Eaglecrest a cornerstone of Juneau’s livability and a key reason families stay.

“I came to Juneau in 1971 when I was 23. I learned to ski and met my husband at Third Cabin before Eaglecrest. When we had children, skiing became something of a family thing we did on Sundays, because it was much cheaper on Sundays. And Eaglecrest has always been more affordable than any area down south. Our kids grew up skiing, and I really attribute those years at Eaglecrest with helping our children grow up with grit, a love for the outdoors, learning time management when they started traveling with the ski team, and having a sport that helped to create healthy adults.” Said longtime skier and testifier Sharon Denton, “I honestly can’t imagine a winter in Juneau without Eaglecrest. I thank you for funding to keep it going next year, but we have to look further.”

Several speakers also challenged the city’s approach to Telephone Hill.

Larry Talley and Mary Alice McKeen cited the city’s own market analysis, arguing the proposed housing project would require tens of millions in subsidies and a per-unit funding gap far above Juneau’s normal affordable housing support.

“From what I know, the proposed development on Telephone Hill of 155 units with 25 affordable is not financially feasible. The first question in the City Manager’s Telephone FAQ was, ‘why is CBJ moving forward with evictions and building demolition without a developer in place?’ And the answer was, quote, ‘Telephone Hill has been carefully analyzed through the market analysis, and the Assembly has chosen to develop the property.’ She did not cite any specific numbers or pages from that market analysis.” Said McKeen, asking of the RFQ, “How many units will be built if the development plan goes forward as proposed? How many units will be affordable? And the most important question, How much public subsidy will be required? The maximum subsidy in the Juneau Affordable Housing Fund is $50,000 If the gap for this project is greater than $50,000 the project should not go forward.”

Separately, the city is actively working to craft next year’s budget, as well as Eaglcrest’s budget.

The city must finalize the budget by June 15, there will be another opportunity for public testimony on June 8.

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CBJ looks to savings, tax shifts and bonds to avoid recreation service cuts

NOTN- Juneau’s city officials are still weighing cuts to city services, new debt for infrastructure and a major change to sales tax rules as they work to close a nearly $12 million dollar budget deficit.

After a nearly five-hour finance committee meeting last night, officials began prioritizing a list of possible reductions. The work will shape the budget the Assembly expects to pass by the deadline on June 15.

Still under consideration are cuts to destination marketing through Travel Juneau, economic development funding for the Juneau Economic Development Council, potential closure of Mount Jumbo Gym, reduced hours or closure of the City Museum, and cuts to arts and culture funding through the Juneau Arts and Humanities Council.

Some of the most controversial ideas have been taken off the table for this year, including closing one of the city’s pools, the field house and the Treadwell arena. Those facilities will instead be supported with city savings which will be a short-term solution.

“Those were the ones that we had heard lots of public feedback on.” Said Finance Director Christine Woll, “Closure of the ice rink is no longer in consideration. I will say, everyone on the assembly acknowledged we can get away with not making those cuts this year, but that’s because we have a lot of money in savings, and so using our savings to fund those facilities will not work much for longer than a year.”

The Assembly is also considering up to two bond proposals for the ballot, Woll said, one for improvements to aging school facilities and another for water and wastewater infrastructure. She said general obligation bonds are appropriate only for capital projects and must be approved by voters.

“With approval from the taxpayers, the city does have a good amount of debt capacity and one piece I’ll add to that is, we would only use debt for Capital Projects, right? So the idea is you would borrow money so you can improve something or build something, and then pay it back over time, as opposed to taking on debt to operate something into the future.” Woll said, “So the Assembly is looking at putting up to two bond proposals on the ballot. We haven’t decided yet, but basically we’re looking at taking on debt for some improvements to our aging school facilities, as well as our water and wastewater infrastructure. So those in my opinion, good projects for debt.”

The Assembly plans a public hearing June 8, the same day many budget decisions are expected, and is accepting email comments at boroughassembly@juneau.gov. Woll urged residents to weigh in on the tax cap and potential service cuts as soon as possible.

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Modeling shows rising long-term flood risk in Mendenhall Valley as HESCO barrier work continues

A drone image shows widespread flooding in the Mendenhall Valley on Tuesday morning. (Image courtesy of Rich Ross)
A drone image shows widespread flooding in the Mendenhall Valley in 2024. (Image courtesy of Rich Ross)

NOTN- City officials and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers representatives outlined ongoing and proposed flood-mitigation work last night.

The Committee of the Whole work session focused on HESCO barriers and river armoring installed after the series of glacial lake outburst floods in recent years.

Mike Records, the Technical Lead for the Army Corp of Engineers, outlined the hydrology of the system, how the flood water moves.

His presentation estimated flood risk. those estimations will be used to design short, medium and long-term protections.

Engineers discussed “Annual Exceedance Probability” or AEP, which was once referred to as “100 Year Flood.”

This means the chance that a flood of a certain size will happen in any given year. For example, a “1% AEP” flood has a 1% chance of happening each year.

But according to officials, those odds add up over time. Even a rare flood becomes much more likely if you look over many years. A flood with a 1% yearly chance has about a 40% chance of happening at least once over 50 years.

“A 1% annual exceedance probability event would be the equivalent of a 100-year event, there is a low chance of that happening, but over time, those chances compound.” Records said, “The annual exceedance probability events that we developed are peak discharge events that we then used in hydraulic modeling to inform decision making on design. You’ll see that a lot of these events are significantly larger in magnitude than anything that’s been experienced at this point.”

In most places, engineers rely on decades of historical data to estimate flood risk, but in this case, there are only about three years of major data available.

“There’s flooding all over the country, it’s rare that it develops so suddenly like this.” Records said, “So normally, you might have like a 60 year period of record of flood events that you could use to develop your AEPS. In this case, there’s basically three years of full drainage events.”

Because of limited data and a changing environment, there is a lot of uncertainty in these estimates, so engineers are planning for the worst-case scenario.

According to officials, Suicide Basin is expanding. This is because the glacier is melting and retreating, which opens up more space for water to collect. Ice is breaking off (calving), melting, and adding to the lake, so overall the basin can hold more water than it used to. On the other side, the spillway,, the pathway where water drains out beneath or around the glacier, is also changing. As the glacier thins and melts, the outlet is getting lower, which can allow water to start draining sooner.

Cubic-feet-per-second or CFS, is the rate at which water flows. Last year’s flood reached about 50,000 CFS. Officials said work aims to reach a 63,500 CFS flood scenario threshold by mid-July.

Assembly Member Nano Brooks asked Records about the service life of the HESCO barriers, to which Records responded, “They have a warranty of five years. I think that’s primarily for fabric degradation. Of course, those parts can be replaced, but that is kind of the maximum expectation without significant ongoing maintenance.”

Three options were presented for the coming season: the status-quo-plus build, upgrades to protect to 63,500 CFS (the staff recommendation), or a larger, more costly build to protect to 90,000 CFS. According to officials, that type of flood has an 18% chance of occurring in the next 10 years. 

Officials said the 63,500-CFS option would leave an estimated $3 million funding gap and the 90,000-CFS option about $8 million short of current funding. 

The city is pursuing State Revolving Fund assistance that would forgive half the loan and could cover much of the cost if approved.

Ultimately The City and Borough Assembly voted 7-2  to authorize work to reinforce and raise HESCO flood barriers to protect against a 63,500 CFS event ahead of the 2026 flood season .

An ordinance to formalize the appropriation is expected for introduction May 18.