By: James Brooks, Alaska Beacon
On Tuesday, Alaska could elect its first Democratic governor since 2002, roll back the clock on the way it conducts elections, help decide control of the U.S. House and Senate for the final two years of President Donald Trump’s second term and possibly elect the first Indigenous woman to the Senate.
Here’s what to consider when voting and what to watch for as the results come in:
U.S. Senate
In a four-person race, incumbent Republican Dan S. Sullivan is being challenged by Democratic candidate Mary Peltola, independent Dan J. Sullivan and Republican Gerald Heikes.
Polling throughout the race has indicated Peltola has a small lead over Sen. Sullivan, but the difference has been consistently within the margin of error, indicating that either could win. Dan J. Sullivan and Heikes are each expected to get less than 3% of the vote.
As a result, Alaska’s Senate race is one of a relative handful of toss-up seats that could decide whether Republicans or Democrats control the Senate.2026 Voter Guide
The candidates, the ballot measures, and the tools you need to cast your vote.
Sen. Sullivan has been a reliable supporter of President Donald Trump and the Senate’s Republicans; if Peltola were to win, it would increase the chances of a Democratic takeover. Peltola has campaigned on an anticorruption platform and appears likely to support Democratic efforts to investigate the Trump administration.
While both Peltola and Sullivan support oil and gas drilling on federal land in Alaska, other Senate Democrats oppose such drilling and could override Peltola.
In addition, Peltola has said she would support restrictions or a ban on deepwater trawling in federal waters near Alaska, but Democratic control of the Senate could put Sen. Patty Murray, D-Washington, in control of the Senate committee that handles fisheries, and Murray has supported the trawl industry.
During his latest term, Sullivan has successfully advocated for a vast expansion of the U.S. Coast Guard and military in Alaska, bringing hundreds of millions of dollars in construction projects to the state.
The Trump administration and other Republicans have indicated that they may seek to dispute the legitimacy of a Peltola victory, citing a New York Times article that reported Democratic campaigners recruited Dan J. Sullivan as a spoiler who could siphon votes away from Sen. Sullivan.
The chance of a successful challenge would fall if Peltola defeats Sen. Sullivan by a margin that is larger than the number of votes received by Dan J. Sullivan.
In addition, if Sen. Sullivan is re-elected, there would be no challenge.
Governor
Democratic candidate Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins and three Republicans — Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson and Treg Taylor — are seeking to succeed Gov. Mike Dunleavy, a Republican who is term-limited and unable to run again this year.
While ranked choice voting could allow Republican votes to transfer from a lower-finishing Republican to a higher-finishing one, historical trends show many Republicans are unwilling to rank more than one or two candidates, and polling indicates Kreiss-Tomkins has high odds of becoming the first Democratic governor of Alaska since Tony Knowles left office in 2002.GET THE MORNING HEADLINES.SUBSCRIBE
Kreiss-Tomkins has campaigned on an ambitious series of policy goals, including the restoration of a pension plan for teachers and state employees, advance funding for public schools, a multimillion-dollar bond issue for electrical improvements across the state, a temporary ban on new large-scale computing data centers, changes to the way the state conducts elections and restrictions on trawl fisheries.
The election of a Democrat could cause ripple effects in the state’s relationship with the Trump administration, which has withheld federal payments to Democratic-led states, including disaster relief money.
Wilson, who President Donald Trump has endorsed and polls have indicated is the leading Republican candidate, has advocated a more aggressive push toward policies pursued by Dunleavy during his eight years in office, including more funding for the Permanent Fund dividend, even if it means breaking an eight-year-old limit on the size of transfers from the Alaska Permanent Fund.
Taylor, attorney general under Dunleavy, has proposed policies mostly in line with Dunleavy, as has Bronson. Both men have advocated a harder limit on spending from the Alaska Permanent Fund, as has Kreiss-Tomkins.
Ballot Measure 2
The general election ballot includes two ballot measures, but Ballot Measure 3 is a largely inconsequential revision to the state’s existing ban on noncitizen voting.
Ballot Measure 2, conversely, would have major impacts in the state. If passed, it would repeal the state’s current system of elections, in which all candidates for an office run together and the top four vote-getters advance from the primary to the general election, which uses ranked-choice voting.
In place of that system, Alaska would return to party-run primaries, where political parties set the rules for who may participate. One candidate from each party would advance to the general election, and ranked choice voting would not be used.
In addition, the state would no longer have a law requiring third-party political donors to disclose the source of their money; contributors would be able to give money anonymously.
Because of a conflict with Ballot Measure 1, passed during the August primary election, enacting Ballot Measure 2 likely also would eliminate a limit on direct financial donations to governor candidates, allowing donors to give unlimited amounts of money in governor races. A final ruling on that elimination would take place after the election.
U.S. House
Unlike in the Senate, Alaska’s U.S. House race is unlikely to be decisive in determining control of one half of Congress. National polling indicates Democrats are likely to take control of the chamber.
Incumbent Republican Rep. Nick Begich III is being challenged by independent candidate Bill Hill, federally-imprisoned Democratic candidate Eric Hafner and Libertarian Jim McDermott.
The Alaska Democratic Party opposes Hafner and is urging party members to back Hill instead. Nevertheless, pre-election polling indicates Hafner could get 5% or more of Alaskans’ first-choice votes, and analysts believe that helps Begich’s re-election chances.
Begich, first elected in 2024, has been a reliable vote for President Donald Trump and Republicans in the House.
Hill has not said whether he would join Republicans or Democrats in the House but has said he would not serve under current Speaker of the House Mike Johnson, R-Louisiana.
Alaska Legislature
Both the Alaska Senate and Alaska House are currently controlled by coalition majorities; the majority in the Senate includes Republicans and Democrats, while the one in the House includes Democrats, independents and Republicans.
Over the past two years, the coalitions have been in conflict with Dunleavy, who vetoed more than 25% of all legislation passed by the House and Senate, a record since statehood.
If the coalitions continue and Kreiss-Tomkins is elected governor, the state’s legislative and executive branches would be aligned on major issues including school pensions and funding.
If the coalitions continue but a Republican is elected governor, or if Kreiss-Tomkins is elected but enough Republicans are elected to the Legislature to form a majority, some kind of discord is likely to continue.
Milo Ventimiglia has been out on the road for a long time. 
