By: Yereth Rosen, Alaska Beacon
Alaska’s statewide commercial salmon harvest this year is expected to total 125.5 million fish, less than two thirds of the total landed by commercial harvesters in 2025, according to the annual forecast released last week by state biologists.
The anticipated 2026 total, detailed in Alaska Department of Fish and Game 2026 forecast and 2025 review, is lower than annual statewide harvests in all but four years since 2000, according to department records.
The lowered expectations for the statewide salmon harvest are driven mostly by anticipated declines in runs of pink salmon, also known as humpback salmon, according to the forecast.
Pink salmon are the most plentiful, smallest and cheapest of Alaska’s five salmon species. They have two-year life cycles, the shortest of all of Alaska’s salmon species. Although there are regional variations, the general pattern for the recent past is alternating big-run and smaller-run years, with 2025 as one of the big-run years.
The year-to-year difference has been significant, said Forrest Bowers, who heads the department’s commercial fishing division.
“We have been seeing a pronounced even-odd year difference in pink salmon returns, with much larger returns in odd-numbered years,” Bowers said by email.
In all, about 197.4 million salmon were harvested commercially last year, 120 million of which were pink salmon, the forecast said. This year, about 60 million pink salmon are expected to be harvested commercially, according to the forecast.
For Alaska’s other four salmon species, the forecast is for a lower total catches as well, with a combined reduction of 11% below the 2025 non-pink salmon total harvest, Bowers siad..
That is not considered a precise prediction. There are estimate ranges for different species and locations, which put the anticipated 2026 harvest in the general ballpark of last year’s harvest, except for pink salmon.
“When we consider forecast uncertainty and the distribution of harvests across the state, the forecast for non-pink salmon is fairly similar to the 2025 actual harvest,” Bowers said.
Sockeye salmon, also known as red salmon, is the second-most plentiful of Alaska’s five species, and the statewide harvest is dominated by Southwestern Alaska’s Bristol Bay, site of the world’s largest sockeye salmon runs.
That status will continue this year, according to the forest. Bristol Bay’s estimated 2026 harvest for this year is 33.5 million fish, a little over the average over the last 20 years — but smaller than in some recent years, when harvests in that region hit or approached records. Last year’s Bristol Bay sockeye harvest was about 41.2 million fish, a little more than three quarters of the statewide sockeye harvest.
This year, the statewide sockeye salmon harvest is forecasted to total 49.7 million fish, of which about two thirds are expected to come from Bristol Bay.
The forecasted chum salmon commercial harvest this year is 17.2 million fish, compared to 21.7 million last year. This year’s forecasted harvest of coho salmon, also known as silver salmon, is 2.4 million fish, compared to 2.7 million harvested last year. This year’s forecasted harvest of Chinook salmon, also known as king salmon, is 197,000 fish, compared to last year’s total harvest of 201,000 fish.
The department’s forecast details regional differences along with species differences.
In the Yukon and Kuskokwim river systems, salmon runs are expected to continue to be weak, as they have been for the past several years, according to the forecast. There is no commercial fishing anticipated on either of those river systems. The only commercial fishing in the Arctic-Yukon-Kuskokwim region is expected to be in Norton Sound and in the Kotzebue area, as was the case last year and in other recent years.
The newly released forecast is for commercial harvesting alone. It does not include subsistence or sports harvests. Reports detailing last year’s subsistence harvests are expected to be released in the future, the forecast said.
