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US ceasefire with Iran: What’s next? A former diplomat explains 3 possible scenarios

Iranians hold national flags in Tehran’s Revolution Square on April 8, 2026, after the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Atta Kenare/AFP via Getty Images

President Donald Trump on April 7, 2026, announced a ceasefire between the United States and Iran, after more than a month of war marked by U.S. and Israeli strikes against Iranian military leadership, Iranian retaliation against regional oil infrastructure and a global energy crisis.

As a former U.S. diplomat, I have found there are three ways that warring parties arrive at a ceasefire.

The first scenario happens when one party tires of war and asks for peace, as Hamas, the militant Palestinian organization, did when it pushed for a ceasefire with Israel in late 2023 and early 2024. But this strategy reveals weakness to the other side and thus seldom works. Israel ignored Hamas and continued the war in Gaza until October 2025.

Warring nations also reach ceasefires when a powerful third country insists the two parties stop fighting due to risks to world peace and regional stability. In the modern era, the U.S. has done this several times in the Mideast when it has leveraged influence over key players, such as Israel and Egypt. But with the Iran war, there is no country in a good position to do this.

The current U.S.-Iran ceasefire is a good example of the third way that agreements to stop fighting can happen. Both countries were tired of the costs and the ongoing risks of the war, and they sent signals to that effect.

Pakistan, which deserves praise for stepping in, picked up on this and offered to serve as an intermediary. For at least two weeks, assuming the ceasefire holds, the U.S., Iran and Israel can lick their wounds and consider their next moves, as they work out whether the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah is covered by the ceasefire.

US and Israel’s war with Iran

Why were the United States and Iran ready for a ceasefire?

For the U.S. and Israel, the war didn’t go as planned. There was no true regime change in Iran and no uprising of its people.

Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime channel between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, and maintained its ability to shoot down warplanes and attack its neighbors, including Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait.

For Iran, the war has cost the lives of thousands of its citizens and dozens of its leaders. It has also ruined key infrastructure, and it had the potential to get much worse.

A large ship passes through a strait.
A vessel passes through the Strait of Hormuz following the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the United States and Iran.
Shady Alassar/Anadolu via Getty Images

Key ceasefire demands

That’s how we got here. Now, where could the war go next?

One possibility is that the ceasefire lasts only two weeks, is shaky throughout – as seen with Israel’s bombing of Lebanon after the ceasefire was declared – and war resumes.

The world already knows what that looks like, with its impact on the global economy and the soaring financial costs to the U.S. military.

Another scenario is that the ceasefire is extended, either clearly or just de facto, with zero to minimal U.S. attacks or Iranian missile or drone launches. This is quite possible.

The third and best outcome would be if the two parties are able to use these two weeks, plus some extensions, to hammer out the key points of a peace deal.

What could this involve?

The two key U.S.-Israel demands are that Iran give up its nuclear weapons development and stop backing Hamas and Hezbollah, the Shiite militia with extensive influence in Lebanon.

At this point, I believe the Iranians should realize that nuclear weapons are not their best deterrence, and that their attempts to obtain them have led only to their isolation. Their true deterrence is their ability to close the Strait of Hormuz and choke off 20% of the world’s energy supply. For that, they need only drones and small speed boats.

Iran’s support of Hezbollah, which has contributed to the ruin of a once prosperous and democratic Lebanon since it launched military operations inside the country in 1982, is a liability to them as well.

Smoke rises from a city center.
Smoke billows from Beirut’s southern suburb, a stronghold of pro-Iranian Hezbollah, after a wave of airstrikes by Israel on April 8, 2026.
Marwan Naamani/picture alliance via Getty Images

Iran’s missile attacks during this war have made it clear that they would be able to deliver nuclear weapons if they had them. And their drone and missile strikes on their Muslim neighbors, including Qatar and Saudi Arabia, are only creating new enemies.

But what would the Iranians want in return?

First and foremost, an end to attacks by other countries attempting to topple their regime. Second, and just as important, a permanent lifting of sanctions so long as they end their support for terrorist groups and surrender their uranium. Unfortunately, such an agreement would do nothing for pro-human rights groups in Iran.

A lack of trust

All parties would need to be committed to working out the many details for a ceasefire to last. Pakistan would need to stay the course as an honest broker and not get discouraged. The governments involved would need to be able to persuade their people that such a deal is acceptable.

Sound impossible? It’s been done many times in history. Think of how intractable the conflicts in Northern Ireland or between Israel and Egypt once seemed. The key element is for both sides to fear a resumption of war more than they do the consequences of a compromise peace.

A major problem is the lack of trust on both sides. The U.S. has seen Iran go back on promises before. Israel was traumatized by Hamas attacks in 2023. And Iran can’t keep up with Trump’s constantly changing signals and his bombing Iran while negotiating with the government there.

But if the ceasefire holds and negotiations are successful, the world could see an Iran that, at least, is no longer a menace to its neighbors. And Iran would see itself being readmitted to the world economy, which it desperately needs.

If it doesn’t work, and we go back to how things were before the ceasefire, we’ll be back to the U.S. and Israel raining down hard-to-replace munitions on Iran, and Iran lashing out with drones and missile attacks against a dozen countries, with the world economy taking a beating.

The Conversation

Donald Heflin does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

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10 Things You’re Doing Wrong With Biscuits And Gravy

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Harris gives her clearest signal she is mounting a 2028 presidential bid

NEW YORK — Kamala Harris just gave the Democratic Party the most explicit sign yet she’ll run for president in 2028.

“Listen, I might, I might. I’m thinking about it,” Harris told the Rev. Al Sharpton at the National Action Network convention on Friday, when he asked her whether she will run again in 2028. “I’ll keep you posted,” she said as she walked off the stage, concluding a roughly 40-minute appearance that was peppered with cheers and a standing ovation from attendees.

The former vice presidenthas toyed with the idea before, but her comments Friday took on a new meaning in front of an audience full of Black lawmakers, influential power brokers and voters at what amounted to the first major cattle-call for the potential 2028 Democratic field.

“I know what the job is and what it requires,” she told Sharpton.

Harris was the sixth possible 2028 contender to take the stage at the conference for a fireside chat with Sharpton, a tacit acknowledgement that whether the hopefuls ultimately decide to run or not, they know they can’t skip this room. Black voters make up a huge chunk of the Democratic primary base and will play a major role in determining the party’s next presidential nominee.

Harris was received with the most enthusiasm from the audience compared to any of the Democrats who spoke earlier this week, including Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.).

At one point, the crowd in the packed ballroom repeatedly chanted, “Run again! Run again!”

Later, the cheers for Harris grew to such a tenor, Sharpton jokingly admonished the crowd: “This is a convention, not a revival.”

Harris repeatedly attacked President Donald Trump — on Iran, foreign policy and voting rights, among other topics — throughout her conversation with Sharpton.

But she also nodded to the influence Trump and the GOP had on certain voters of color in 2024, when a significant number of Black and Latino men decided to move away from the Democratic Party.

Democrats, she said, shouldn’t expect support because of longstanding relationships.

“I think we need to be transactional voters,” she said to scattered cheers in the room. “Here’s what I’m suggesting in addition: get yours. Vote and say, ‘I’m voting because I expect something out of this’…. I’m saying it’s okay to also give people permission to be transactional, and to say, if you will get my vote, this is what I expect. I expect to get something out of this.”

People close to Harris say she’s genuinely undecided and they’ve been urging her to take steps that preserve her ability to mount a campaign.

But her remarks before the packed convention hall mark one of several high-profile public appearances she’s planning as she reemerges — and tries to reintroduce herself — to voters. Harris said she’ll soon be traveling to South Carolina, North Carolina, Georgia and Arkansas.

Harris leads several very early polls of Democrats’ top picks for president heading into 2028, likely bolstered by her name recognition from her two previous runs for the White House and her four-year tenure as vice president under former President Joe Biden.

The early leg-up Harris holds in the shadow presidential primary was evident even before her remarks on Friday morning. Unlike the event’s first two days, attendees shuffled through a security checkpoint at the entrance to the ballroom, akin to Secret Service protocols usually afforded to former office holders (Trump stripped Harris of her USSS detail in 2025). And the cavernous Midtown event space reached capacity over an hour before Harris walked onstage.

In some ways, Harris’ conversation with Sharpton felt much like a 2024 campaign appearance.

“Freedom,” Beyoncé’s 2016 hit that became the soundtrack of Harris’ 2024 campaign, played over the loudspeaker as attendees filed in, and a sizzle reel of footage showing Sharpton and Harris together projected onto the two screens that frame the main stage, something no other possible 2028 presidential contender’s attendance featured.

“I just really want to hear her point of view of everything, about what’s happening now in the presidency, and maybe what she would have done if she was here instead of Trump,” said 27-year-old Justina Pena, a New Yorker.

Chris Cadelago contributed. 

​Politics

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Nick Lachey Admits 98 Degrees Kept Age-Of-Consent Guidebook on Tour

Reading Time: 4 minutes

Just days after Nick Lachey and Jessica Simpson’s unplanned reunion on a flight, he’s talking about old memories. Older memories.

In the ’90s, his boy band went on tour for the first time.

At the time, the record label gave them a guide to the age of consent laws in every state.

Lachey admits that, in retrospect, that sounds shady as heck. And he’s right!

Nick Lachey interviewed on Boy Band Confidential.
The ‘Boy Band Confidential’ doc interviews many, including Nick Lachey. (Image Credit: Investigation Discovery)

‘This is going to sound super shady’

Lachey is part of the new ID documentary, Boy Band Confidential.

Produced by Joey Fatone of *NSYNC fame, this is a retrospective look at what life was really like for members of the most famous boy bands — and some bands that the world has largely forgotten.

These days, most of us think of Lachey as Jessica Simpson’s ex. And he is!

But he, alongside Jeff Timmons, Justin Jeffre, and Drew Lachey (his brother), comprised the boy band, 98 Degrees.

And, when they first went on tour in 1999, they had a helpful yet “shady” guide. Just in case.

“This is going to sound super shady,” Lachey admits, “but when we first went out, I remember our first tour, someone at the label gave us a book.”

He continued: “And it was the age of consent in every state in the country.”

(As appalling as different laws in different countries already is in our world, different laws in different states is somehow even worse. And yes, age of consent laws vary widely.)

“And, like, we kept that book on the tour bus,” Lachey admitted.

He explained the safeguard, claiming: “Unfortunately, there were people out there looking to tear you down.”

Nick Lachey, Jeff Timmons, Justin Jeffre, and Drew Lachey.
98 Degrees included Nick Lachey, Jeff Timmons, Justin Jeffre, and Drew Lachey. (Image Credit: Investigation Discovery)

There’s a point where excessive familiarity with the law is … suspicious

Up until that line suggesting that people were out to get 98 Degrees in the ’90s, Lachey’s admission makes sense.

Yes, we know — having a creepy knowledge of age of consent from state to state is usually a red flag.

(Knowing the age of people you’re sleeping with is good and smart. Knowing the minimum age that someone can be for a legal hookup in 50 states and beyond is a predator’s mindset, even if no laws are broken.)

However, the boy band members ages were 21 at the youngest and 24 at the oldest in 1999.

Most of the time, 21-year-olds do not really end up socializing in person with anyone under 18. But, if they do, they should at least know whether or not they’re committing a crime.

Nick Lachey BTS.
This behind-the-scenes shot shows Nick Lachey on his phone. (Image Credit: Investigation Discovery)

Laws regarding age of consent should exist, because 18 as a hard cutoff creates nonsensical injustices.

To be blunt, two high school students should not have to break up just because one of them had a birthday.

At many high schools, it is common for students of different grades to share classes, to socialize, and to date. (And this applies to other situations, like workplaces, where minors and adults may share spaces.)

People who are just a few years apart dating, when one is an adult and another is a minor, is not inherently predatory. But someone who is predatory might take advantage of these laws in order to pursue inexperienced teens.

Something can be entirely legal and entirely creepy at the same time.

Nick Lachey interviewed on Boy Band Confidential, up close.
98 Degrees alum Nick Lachey marvels at how the industry worked — or didn’t work — back then. (Image Credit: Investigation Discovery)

Obviously, ‘Boy Band Confidential’ covers much more than that small anecdote

Boy Band Confidential premieres on Roku on Monday, April 13.

Obviously, the contents of the doc will range from the lighthearted to the very serious.

Many boy bands of that era were the targets for massive financial exploitation. People who earned tens of millions were left with scraps.

Additionally, some will touch upon heavy subjects — such as sexual misconduct when they were young stars.

Many of today’s music stars have much better situations, in their contracts and finances, than these boy band members did. They carved out part of the industry, and suffered for it, and paved the way for future singers.

Nick Lachey Admits 98 Degrees Kept Age-Of-Consent Guidebook on Tour was originally published on The Hollywood Gossip.

​The Hollywood Gossip

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Eva Longoria Divorced: Her History of Marriage, Explained

Reading Time: 3 minutes

Eva Longoria has been married and divorced over the course of her acting career.

The actress, mother, model, and philanthropist was not always famous. Or lucky in love.

Her husbands have included an alleged cheating athlete, a wealthy businessman, and a fellow actor who tragically died.

Here’s a run-down of her marital history, what went wrong, and where things stand today.

Eva Longoria in July 2025.
Eva Longoria attends the Global Gift Gala at Hotel Don Pepe Gran Meliá on July 20, 2025. (Photo Credit: Daniel Perez/Getty Images)

Eva Longoria & Tyler Christopher (2002-2004)

In 2000, Eva Longoria appeared on the soap opera, General Hospital.

Though she memorably disparaged soap opera work in recent years, she acted on several earlier in her career.

That role, as “Brenda Barrett Lookalike,” spanned only a single episode. however, it was where Longoria met actor Tyler Christopher.

Eva Longoria and Tyler Christopher in 2002.
”The Young and the Restless” actress Eva Longoria and husband Tyler Christopher arrive on May 17, 2002. (Photo Credit: Lawrence Lucier/Getty Images)

The two went on to marry in 2002. At this time, she was starring on The Young & The Restless.

In 2004, they divorced with little fanfare. Notably, this was the year that Desperate Housewives began. Her role as Gabrielle Solis catapulted Longoria to stardom.

Tragically, Christopher passed away in 2023 following a lengthy battle with alcoholism and a related brain injury, which in turn preceded a period of homelessness.

Eva Longoria in May of 2025.
Eva Longoria attends the “Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning” red carpet at the 78th annual Cannes Film Festival at Palais des Festivals on May 14, 2025. (Photo Credit: Andreas Rentz/Getty Images)

Eva Longoria & Tony Parker (2007-2010)

In November of 2004, having been fully divorced since January of that year, Eva Longoria met Tony Parker, an athlete playing for a team called the San Antonio Spurs.

Two years later, in November of 2006, the two became engaged. They would go on to marry in 2007.

Following a civil service at city hall, they married in a Catholic wedding on July 7, 2007.

Eva Longoria and Tony Parker in 2009.
Actress Eva Longoria and Tony Parker pose as they arrive to attend the “Par Coeur Gala” dinner at the Hotel Meurice on September 21, 2009. (Photo Credit: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty Images)

According to Longoria in 2010, she ended up discovering hundreds of texts between Parker and another woman.

(That woman, the world later learned, was allegedly Erin Barry, who was married to Parker’s former teammate at the time)

So, six years after they met, Longoria filed to divorce Parker in November 2010. The contentious divorce involved a battle over jurisdictions, a prenup, and more. However, they managed to finalize the divorce in January of 2011.

Eva Longoria and husband José Bastón in 2024.
Eva Longoria and José Bastón during the Haute Living Celebrates Eva Longoria Together With The EBH Group, Aroma 360 And Navier Together With Casa Del Sol Tequila on April 30, 2024. (Photo Credit: Gonzalo Marroquin/Getty Images for Haute Living)

She married José Antonio “Pepe” Bastón Patiño in 2016

In December of 2015, the several-years-divorced Eva Longoria announced that she and José Antonio “Pepe” Bastón Patiño were engaged.

The Mexican businessman was the president of Televisa, a sprawling media company. As it turns out, they had met on a blind date through a mutual friend, with Bastón having initially not even known who she was. (Incidentally, she is reportedly by far the wealthier partner)

Longoria and Bastón married on May 21, 2016. In 2018, Longoria welcomed their son. As of late 2024, the two divide their time between Mexico and Spain.

Eva Longoria Divorced: Her History of Marriage, Explained was originally published on The Hollywood Gossip.

​The Hollywood Gossip

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