Category: Politics

He’s eating barbecue. He’s winning over Joe Rogan. He’s challenging his opponent to mano-a-mano televised faceoffs.

James Talarico is determined not to let his GOP challenger Ken Paxton’s and Republicans’ attacks on his masculinity define him in what has emerged as one of the party’s loudest tactics in the crucial Senate race.

The Texas Democrat is working to position himself as a candidate focused on issues he says men actually care about instead of speculation about his diet, sexuality and religious beliefs.

“They’ve even called me a vegan, and those are fighting words in the state of Texas,” Talarico said at a San Antonio rally this summer.

“Nowadays our culture tells young men that greatness is tearing other people down, is trolling and owning and dominating. But my dad showed me what real greatness looks like. He inspired me to serve,” Talarico said at another rally in Houston, referencing how his dad often mowed the lawn of his elderly widowed neighbor without asking.

Talarico’s attempt to reclaim the masculinity narrative by confronting the issue head-on could help propel him to flip a seat Democrats haven’t held in nearly four decades, and which could determine control of the Senate next year.

It comes as both parties, in Texas and across the U.S., are fighting to win male voters — especially young, Black or Hispanic men — who in 2024 lurched to the right to help Republicans take control of the White House and Congress. The issue of masculinity has also been turbo-charged during Donald Trump’s second term, with the president hosting UFC fights on the White House lawn and his Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth pushing for testosterone testing in the military.

If Talarico prevails, he could ultimately serve as a model for other Democratic candidates to connect with male voters or fend off Republicans who try to use issues of masculinity as a cudgel.

“Democrats need to be prepared for more of these attacks to come and understand how to handle them,” Lucas Holtz, a senior political adviser at the centrist think tank Third Way, said in an interview.

Republicans think they’ve hit a nerve with Texas voters about Talarico’s manhood. Members of the party have targeted the 37-year-old public school teacher-turned-state legislator for past statements endorsing a vegan lifestyle, suggesting that “God is nonbinary” and opposing legislation that erodes transgender rights.

“If you look at him, this is a guy who’s publicly stated pretty bizarre things — that God is nonbinary,” said Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas) in an interview. “He’s a total weirdo, and I think Texas voters recognize that.”

Talaricosaid recently his comment on God’s gender was meant to be “deliberately provocative” and that he meant God is beyond gender.

Republicans are also seizing on Talarico’s unmarried status and smaller physical build to paint the Democratic candidate as weak and effeminate. Some have falsely called him gay or transgender. Paxton’s very first ad of the general election campaign implied Talarico has low testosterone levels. And a conservative PAC released an AI-generated video of Talarico as an actress from “The Sound of Music” singing about wanting to give hormones to children.

Talarico opposes gender affirming care for minors, his spokesperson JT Ennis said.

“In Texas, there’s a certain level of tough guy-ness that we all pretend to have in ourselves, and that we like in our elected officials,” said Vinny Minchillo, a Texas-based Republican admaker who is not involved in the race. “If you push that the right direction, that especially does not sit well with Hispanic men and Black men.”

Paxton’s campaign and his allies think Talarico’s previous comments on these issues put him out of touch with voters in both parties.

“Texans can spot an audition for a new identity and they know he is weak and woke on core Texas values,” Paxton adviser Nick Maddux said in a statement. Maddux pointed to moves Talarico has made during the campaign he said shows flip-flopping, such as wearing a Texas flag shirt after calling the American flag a “complicated symbol.”

“He is undoubtedly hurting Democrats,” Republican Texas Sen. Ted Cruz said in an interview about Talarico.

Some Hill Democrats say Republicans’ fixation on Talarico’s manhood is an attempt to distract from Paxton’s weaknesses.

“They fear his strength, especially since he’s running against the most notorious scumbag in American politics,” Sen. Jon Ossoff (D-Ga.) said.

Paxton has faced an ethics complaint that was later dropped, a Justice Department corruption investigation for which he was not charged and securities fraud charges which were ultimately dismissed in an agreement. He was also impeached by the Texas GOP-led House for bribery and abusing his public office, which he called a “sham” coordinated by liberals, and was later acquitted by the Texas Senate.

Paxton also has a history of using cultural issues to his advantage, such as stoking anti-Muslim fears through campaign messaging.

Meanwhile, Talarico’s campaign says they’re not seeing evidence that the masculinity barbs are gaining traction, pointing to robust Democratic gains among Hispanic voters while also arguing that polling shows a toss-up general election contest. The campaign did not share specific data to support that its messaging to male voters was lifting Talarico’s polling with that demographic.

Talarico has focused on issues he says affect many men — like lowering housing costs, stopping corporate landlord rent manipulation and curbing the influence of billionaire mega-donors in politics.

“Ken Paxton is picking these fights no one cares about to distract from the fact that he has no solutions to lower the cost of gas, groceries, or healthcare,” Ennis said in a statement. “Real men serve others, weak men serve themselves.”

Talarico also has tried to appeal to young men and Hispanic voters by placing ads during World Cup and NBA Finals games. And he’s challenging Paxton to a series of televised debates, in which the two could spar on manhood and other issues. Paxton’s team said he’s agreed to the debates but they’re still negotiating logistics and terms.

The Democrat’s campaign also said it is trying to facilitate similar opportunities to Talarico’s pivotal appearance on Joe Rogan’s podcast last year, which boosted his national profile to millions of young men who make up Rogan’s core audience. The podcaster — who during the interview exclaimed “you need to run for president,” to Talarico — has continued to compliment the Texas Democrat and defend his views, including during a conversation with Vice President JD Vance last month.

Talarico has also fired back with his own jabs. He responded to Paxton calling him “Talafreako” by putting the phrase on T-shirts and selling them on his campaign website.

And Talarico turned on Paxton’s low-testosterone message by telling MS NOW “I don’t think guys my age are really concerned about that kind of thing,” adding, “You’ve got these old guys lathered up in their fake tans throwing cheesy nicknames at each other.”

Some public opinion research shows Talarico’s strategy fits the 2026 moment.

The growing cost-of-living crisis — exacerbated by the deeply unpopular military conflict in Iran — and Trump’s low approval ratings may mean the GOP’s masculinity attacks fall flat this cycle, Luke Warford, founder and director of Texas Public Opinion Research, a nonpartisan public opinion research firm, said in an interview.

The top issues for men and young men in Texas center on affordability, the cost of living, economic growth and job creation, according to an aggregate of data shared with POLITICO from the group’s latest surveys in May and June.

“We’ve got a really different scenario now where the Republicans are in power in Texas and nationally, so they own the things that are broken,” Warford said. “There is a deep anti-establishment sentiment in this country and a deep frustration with the status quo particularly among men, and that could be a much stronger political force than the cultural attacks.”

Matt Angle, founder of the Lone Star Project, a Democratic-aligned political action committee in Texas, said “there’s no attack that should be ignored,” but that Democrats are in a good position.

“Ken Paxton is no he-man. He’s a thin-chested, soft spoken, weak guy,” Angle said.

One warning sign for Talarico: a swath of male voters perceive him as too progressive, said Holtz, the Third Way adviser. Holtz noted a recent poll of men by the group in which 49 percent of respondents said the candidate was “too far left.”

In focus groups held by the centrist think tank last year and this year, young men overwhelmingly pointed to the Republican Party as the better representative of men’s priorities. Respondents in those groups associated Democrats with more social and cultural issues while tying Republicans with financial independence, finding a partner and starting a family.

On Capitol Hill, some Democrats are calling the conversation in Texas an opportunity to revisit the party’s historic avoidance of issues that are important to men, which have made them more susceptible to criticism.

Rep. Marc Veasey, a moderate Texas Democrat, said in an interview that “Democrats, overall, need to do a better job of expressing some of the concerns that young men have.”

“When we have people on our side who are attacking things like nuclear family structure and expecting everybody to fall in line, that’s pure insanity,” Veasey said. “There’s this expectation with Democrats that men are just going to follow along, and they’re not. We haven’t figured out how to talk to them.”

Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) said in an interview that Democrats tend to display examples of “traditional masculinity” rather than the “stereotypical masculinity” Republicans are attacking them for not adhering to. He pointed out he served in the Marines, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) played football and Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) was an astronaut.

“What voters know is truly masculine is a politician who is going to take care of their needs and be a protector and be a provider for the family,” Gallego added.

“When a man can’t support his family because inflation is so fucking high, they’re not going to care about who is on the ballot that is, quote unquote, ‘not masc enough.’”

​Politics

Michigan Republicans haven’t had a better shot to win the governorship in over a decade. Deciding who should take it is turning into an ugly, hyper-online brawl.

With widespread name recognition and an endorsement from President Donald Trump, Rep. John James appears poised to be the GOP nominee ahead of Michigan’s primary Tuesday.

But the West Point graduate once thought of as a rising star within the national GOP is facing stiff resistance from an outspoken grassroots wing of the state party, which is rallying around his sole remaining competitor.

“I think you’re gonna be surprised when this race comes down,” said Oakland County GOP Chair Vance Patrick, who endorsed businessperson-turned-outsider candidate Perry Johnson in the closing weeks of the race. “It’s getting really interesting.”

As James and Johnson careen toward a contest to decide who faces likely Democratic nominee and current Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, the campaigning is getting weird. Johnson has launched increasingly caustic and personal attacks against James, who has led the field since he entered the race.

And Johnson cuts an odd figure for a leading contender: He is perhaps best known for his quixotic 2024 presidential bid, which came after a 2022 gubernatorial campaign fell apart amid a nominating petition scandal.

But state party officials and grassroots activists have also shared publicly and privately a litany of complaints about James: resentment over too many debates missed early on in the campaign, not enough visits to specific parts of the state, frustration over him giving away a battleground House seat Democrats are targeting this cycle to run for a new job after losing two previous statewide elections.

Nonetheless, even his detractors insist that Republican voters will rally around the eventual nominee. Patrick, whose county party — which includes parts of metro Detroit that fall within James’ district — received $13,350 from the Johnson campaign, said Republicans “will join lockstep behind the guy that wins the primary.”

The intra-party consternation comes at a pivotal moment for Michigan Republicans, who’ve watched eight years of Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer’s leadership — and yawning statewide victories — with disdain.

Meanwhile, Democrats appear ready to elevate Benson, who has built a $6.4 million war chest as of mid-July — albeit dwarfed by Johnson’s personal wealth — thanks to a prolific fundraising advantage. The secretary of state appears to be en route to easily beat Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson for the nomination.

And Trump winning the state in 2024 is no assurance for Republicans, who saw their Senate candidate falter to now-Sen. Elissa Slotkin in the same year. Now, the GOP is facing an uphill battle amid rising gas prices brought on by a deeply unpopular war in Iran that is causing headaches for the party nationwide.

Finding a nominee who can win over independents and compete in the mother of all swing states is paramount, some Republicans say, and they’re not sure James is it.

“There’s a large amount of Republicans that do not like him,” said Hassan Nehme, a former vice chair of the Michigan GOP and current candidate for state Legislature, referring to some voters’ hesitance about James’ voting record.

The Johnson campaign has launched vitriolic personal attacks at James throughout the race. Johnson, who is white, has referred to James, one of the few Black Republicans in Congress and the sole Black candidate in the race, as a “DEI candidate,” and accused him of playing the “race card” during a recent debate. James, in turn, has characterized Johnson as “desperate.”

The campaign has also turned to promoting an unsubstantiated rumor, while providing no evidence, about James’ personal life, reposting social media posts that attack James.

Tori Sachs, a senior adviser for the James campaign, characterized Johnson’s attacks in a statement as “lies” that are exposing “a desperate, career candidate who has no grasp on reality and no friends that he didn’t buy.”

“Never-Trumper Perry Johnson has burned through over $70 million attacking Trump and James with lies, only to crash toward his third loss in three cycles,” she said.

Such plays are emblematic of Johnson’s campaign strategy, which has leaned heavily online and embraced a constituency of right-leaning grassroots organizers. On social media, he’s employed artificial intelligence to construct sometimes bizarre ads, including a six-minute long odyssey in which he doggedly pursues James on foot, bus and helicopter in order to debate him.

Brian Szmytke, a campaign spokesperson for the Johnson campaign, reiterated in a statement that “John James is unelectable in a general election,” listing several attacks levied during the campaign.

The scrappy turn in the campaign intensified when former state Attorney General Mike Cox, who was also courting voters skeptical of the GOP establishment, dropped out of the race in mid-July. But even before then, Republican officials across the state had expressed doubts about James.

That the Johnson campaign has attacked James on such personal terms points to the campaign’s dire straits, said John Sellek, a Michigan-based Republican political consultant.

“We’ve turned a corner since Cox got out, where the Perry Johnson campaign has been throwing haymakers on what look like less than prime issues because they know the end is here,” Sellek said.

That’s all despite a huge spending advantage for the self-funding Johnson.

He has spent over $32 million getting on the airwaves, while James’ campaign has spent $2.4 million, according to advertising insight firm AdImpact.

“All the typical support mechanisms are moving toward James, even though he is being wildly outspent,” said Sellek.

Before appearing in a set of televised debates held in July, James had abstained from participating in several debates held earlier in the primary. James at the time defended skipping the events, saying he was more focused on uniting the party than bickering with candidates. But some voters took his absence as a sign of disengagement from the grassroots.

Daire Rendon — the Republican Party chair for Michigan’s 1st District, which covers the entire Upper Peninsula and swaths of northern Michigan — suggested that James doesn’t connect with voters in her rural region.

Rendon, a former state representative who was charged for her alleged involvement in a scheme to unlawfully access voting machines after the 2020 election, noted that “we don’t see John James much.”

“They are going to gravitate towards candidates who spend time learning about [the Upper Peninsula], and who show up,” said Rendon, who pleaded not guilty and whose case is ongoing.

Detractors have also criticized James for running for governor in the first place, viewing the contested House seat he’s leaving behind as more valuable amid the GOP’s slim majority and as Republicans stare down an unfavorable midterm cycle. Trump also initially took issue with his gubernatorial ambitions, grousing about it publicly, before endorsing him in June.

“You don’t blow off 80 million in an investment to get you elected to Congress, and in one term leave,” said Muskegon County GOP Chair Tim Cross. (James was first elected to the House in 2022.)

James, however, also appears to have a slew of grassroots support himself. Several Michigan Republicans touted James in interviews with POLITICO, including former state legislator and Macomb County Prosecutor Peter Lucido, who said James is “a proven leader, and he’s gonna continue to go ahead and govern and lead.”

Public and private polling appears to indicate that James remains comfortably in the lead. An internal poll, shared with POLITICO, of more than 700 likely primary voters conducted for the Cox campaign in the days before he dropped out in mid-July showed James leading with 36 percent points, with Johnson trailing at 23 percent and Cox at 21 percent.

Likely Cox voters split for Johnson over James as their second choice, 44 percent to 38 percent respectively.

James, the Cox campaign wrote in a memo to donors and supporters attached to the polling, “benefited by hundreds of millions of dollars targeted toward voters, specifically in Southeast Michigan, over the past several election cycles, coupled with the endorsement of President Donald Trump, creating a scenario where James’ lead is largely insulated.”

Now, the James campaign is rolling out its line of endorsements ranging from state representatives, senators and conservative activists, with Trump’s endorsement as a crown jewel.

The president brought James on stage at a late July rally outside Detroit, where the candidate asserted, falsely, for the first time that Trump won Michigan in 2020. James had previously said that Joe Biden won the 2020 election, though he said earlier this cycle that he was “screwed” that year when he lost his Senate bid.

“You have to win,” the president told James onstage Monday. “You have to win.”

​Politics

The fight over data centers has suddenly become a defining battle in the race to run Kansas — on both sides of the aisle.

Gubernatorial hopefuls are trying to leverage the issue to weaken their rivals in the final stretch before Tuesday’s primaries, with attack ads, dark money and accusations of flip-flopping roiling the race. Democratic state Sen. Cindy Holscher and GOP state Sen. Ty Masterson, two of the top contenders in their respective fields, are bearing the brunt of the criticism.

Republican businessman Philip Sarnecki has spent more than $300,000 on ads attacking Masterson for voting for a bill last year to expand data center construction and give 20-year tax breaks to developers, accusing him of being beholden to big tech.

On the Democratic side, Holscher voted for the same bill but has now staked out a populist stance calling for a moratorium on data centers — an appeal to the same grassroots base that has put her in a strong position to win. Her primary opponents are attacking her as a flip-flopper, and social media ads fueled by anonymous backers keep highlighting her past vote in support of data centers. She’s up against state Sen. Ethan Corson, whom Gov. Laura Kelly endorsed, and Overland Park Mayor Kurt Skoog.

The brawl shows just how divisive and complicated the politics of data centers has become, as politicians in both parties struggle to define a clear winning position on the mass hubs amid growing voter backlash. A July POLITICO Poll found that Americans are increasingly souring on data centers, a trend that’s especially evident among Democrats but crosses partisan lines.

Republican and Democratic candidates are harnessing that opposition to gain an edge in crowded primaries, a rare moment of partisan crossover that speaks to its potency. 

In Kansas, a state with nearly 40 data centers and many pending proposals, local opposition to the industry has animated city council meetings from Wichita to Kansas City. Several towns, like Topeka, have chosen to pass one-year moratoriums to give leaders more time to study the proposals.

Now, the state’s top race is getting caught in the crossfire, as Democrats look for a way to hold onto the governor’s mansion after eight years under Kelly — and Republicans grow bullish about taking back the seat in a red state that voted for President Donald Trump by 16 points in 2024.

“It’s bleeding across both primaries and it’s blurring traditional party stances,” said Bob Beatty, a political science professor at Washburn University in Topeka, who said the rapidly shifting politics speak to a growing “fear around AI.”

Tuesday’s Kansas primaries will help show the party bases’ appetite for data centers — signaling whether voters are looking for a leader who takes a strong position against new developments or a middle-of-the-road approach aimed at bringing in more tax revenue.

Both Masterson’s and Holscher’s campaigns are dismissive that the attack ads will work.

“It’s a very kind of kitchen sink approach here at the end,” said a Masterson campaign adviser, granted anonymity to speak freely about the race. The aide argued that the attacks have been ineffective against the state Senate president, especially given he’s the Trump-endorsed candidate in a state the president won three times.

Holscher, who said in an interview she regrets her vote, argued her new position reflects where people across the state stand now: “This is a unifying issue in terms of where people are on it, urban and rural as well as young and old,” she said in an interview. “I’m the only Democrat in this race to call for a moratorium on data centers because we have to get these guardrails in place. We are having our people and our resources exploited.”

Data center construction — and hostility towards them — exploded after passage of the 2025 legislation backed by Holscher and Masterson, which saw widestrong bipartisan support and was signed by Kelly, a pro-business Democrat.

Masterson has said that “folks build here on our terms, or they don’t build here,” and that local communities should be in charge of deciding whether they want the infrastructure. He supports a Kansas version of the White House’s position on data centers — a voluntary commitment designed to prevent them from driving up utility bills.

But several of his Republican opponents take a more hardline approach by calling for an outright moratorium, like Sarnecki and Insurance Commissioner Vicki Schmidt, another candidate in the top tier of the field.

The Kansas Comeback PAC, linked to Sarnecki, has challenged Masterson’s vote for the 2025 bill. “After 20 years in politics, Ty Masterson has mastered the game,” the TV ad by Kansas Comeback PAC says. “Thousands from big tech. Rewarded them with tax breaks.”

On the Democratic side, it’s difficult to tell who’s leading the field given limited public polling. Holscher’s supporters have cast the race as a choice between a populist fighter and a safe establishment figure, and they believe she will be boosted by the national tailwinds propelling leftwing candidates in states like Colorado, New York and Michigan. One survey from June, conducted before the candidates began running ads, had Holscher up by 27 points.

Corson is also backed by former Gov. Kathleen Sebelius and Lt. Gov. David Toland, and supporters believe he has the necessary crossparty appeal to win the general election in conservative Kansas. Kelly cut a TV ad on his behalf that started to run in major media markets last week.

While Holscher now wants to pause construction to give time to develop regulations, Corson supports construction moving forward with data center development, with guardrails around energy costs and water usage.

“Cindy seems to think that we should just go along with her flip-flopping and not making up her mind and doing what’s politically convenient for her race, and that’s not what we’re going to do.” said Ty Dragoo, chair of the Working Kansas Alliance, a group of more than 23 unions. Corson has raked in endorsements from trades unions like those represented by Dragoo’s group.

“Our north star is to get jobs, to get high-paying jobs, and to get sustaining jobs, and we’re not going to deviate from that.”

Holscher says her experience holding town halls throughout the state, including in deep red areas, opened her eyes to the depth of the opposition to the developments, which have sparked concerns about human health and environmental harms like water usage.

“She’s been listening, and people just want to be heard,” said Democratic state Rep. Linda Featherston, a Holscher supporter. “You have to be out amongst the people listening to what they have to say and not just brushing them off.”

But Holscher’s push for a moratorium has alienated some county, state and labor leaders who see an opportunity for data centers to boost the state’s economy. Corson is advocating for a local-first approach where communities get to decide whether they want to welcome the industry, while at the same time instituting statewide regulations so that the facilities pay energy costs, minimize water usage and ease the tax burden on residents nearby.

“Ultimately, these decisions should be made by communities, not by politicians in Topeka,” Corson said in a statement. “I believe some communities will look at a potential project and decide to move forward, and when they do, my Department of Commerce will work side-by-side with them to make it as beneficial for the community as possible. But other communities will decide that a data center is not a good fit, and as governor, I will absolutely respect that decision.”

Corson’s war chest also puts him in a good position to face off against likely opponent Masterson, who will bring the force of the national GOP’s deep pockets. The Republican Governors Association has already placed a nearly $7 million TV ad reservation in major Kansas media markets starting immediately after the primary.

​Politics

Democrats vying for a pair of deep-red Senate seats are facing increasingly desperate calls from within their party to step aside for more promising independent candidates.

But they say they won’t drop out — unless there’s divine intervention.

Democrats Alani Bankhead of Montana and Julian Beaudion of South Dakota both told POLITICO they have no plans to exit the race, despite pressure from national — and even some state — Democrats to step aside. Numerouspolls, coupled with strongerfundraising and campaign operations, show independents Seth Bodnar and Brian Bengs have a stronger — if still muddied — path to victory in November.

If the Democrats stay on the ballot, it will be almost impossible to claw these seats away from Republicans in Mountain West states that President Donald Trump dominated in 2024.

“I’m a person of faith. If a lightning bolt from God struck me and was like, ‘Alani, get out of the race,’ sure,” Bankhead told POLITICO when asked if anything would change her mind. Otherwise, she said there’s “absolutely nothing.”

Beaudion has a similar resolve: “To be clear, we are not considering dropping out of the race,” he told POLITICO.

By digging in, the Democrats could imperil their party’s hopes of regaining Senate control in an already uphill cycle. There’s broad agreement across the many factions of the Democratic Party that a crowded race relinquishes any hope of victory. Bengs has argued that Beaudion remaining on the ballot jeopardizes his chance of winning this fall against GOP Sen. Mike Rounds. Bodnar has maintained he has a viable path either way, and he could be helped out if the Libertarian candidate in the race pulls votes from Republican Kurt Alme.

The deadline to withdraw in South Dakota is Tuesday, and Montana’s is shortly after, on Aug. 10. Democrats across the ideological spectrum in Washington and their home states are calling on Bankhead and Beaudion to step down to help their party bank-shot a Senate majority, with the idea that a victorious independent candidate could caucus with a future Democratic majority — or at least not party up with Republicans.

“The math is inescapable. If it’s impossible for a Democrat to win, it is vital that the Democrats step aside and give the independent at least a shot of beating the Republican,” said Matt Bennett, a co-founder of the centrist Democratic think tank Third Way. “Beating the MAGA Republicans is priorities one, two and three. Who we beat them with is pretty far down the list.”

Democrats have already had some luck setting up one-on-one independent vs. Republican matchups in other Trump-won states. The Democratic candidate in Nebraska withdrew to pave the way for independent Dan Osborn — though an ongoing court case from a Democratic anti-abortion pastor could complicate things. And Idaho’s Democratic nominee recently dropped out in favor of independent Todd Achilles.

“Knowing that your campaign is not gonna break through, and just being able to recognize that is probably the hardest thing of all,” Achilles said of Democrat David Roth’s decision to step down. “I do appreciate what David did in Idaho.”

Bankhead and Beaudion insist they can win, even despite the headwinds. Bankhead expects to ride the anti-incumbency and pro-outsider wave into office, and Beaudion credits his relationships with voters throughout the state.

“Nobody ever knows what’s actually going to happen in an election,” Bankhead said. “The people decide on November 3.”

But Idaho and Nebraska Democrats reached a conclusion that Bankhead and Beaudion did not: The party’s brand is so tarnished in their states that the “D” label on the ballot line provides no viable path to victory.

“I am a professional partisan Democrat, and I have every incentive to be on the Democrat’s side here,” said Pat Dennis, president of American Bridge 21st Century, an opposition-research firm. “But ultimately, the priority is to take the Senate majority away from Republicans. In some states, that path is very difficult to impossible for a Democrat. In those cases, it is both strategically and morally correct to take the path that is most likely to achieve the goal we’re going for.”

Faiz Shakir, a longtime adviser to Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), did not go as far as to call for Bankhead and Beaudion to step aside. But he agreed that there’s real opportunity for independents who aren’t stuck with the Democratic brand’s baggage.

“Being someone who’s not associated with the two-party system right now helps you greatly in many parts of this country, particularly those that have much more rural and conservative tendencies,” said Shakir. “There’s frustration and anger with Trump, and there’s not as much of a love and appreciation for the Democratic Party.”

Shakir also said that competitive races in these red areas — even if the independents can’t pull off a win — could force Republicans to pull much-needed resources out of battleground races in order to defend their turf.

But he also offered a warning to his party: Talking too much about the independents’ strong fundraising and establishment backing risks tying them to the “donor class” and turning them “into a worse version of what people assumed of a Democrat.”

“You gotta give them the space to be both independent in mind and in spirit,” he said. “The argument for them is truly that they are building a movement in the state that people are hungry for, and that in the support of those people, they’re finding resonance. And that would be the argument for a Democrat to step aside.”

Republicans, meanwhile, are working to paint the independents and Democrats as one and the same. They’re also trying to elevate the Democrats in an attempt to stop the independents from gaining more traction: Trump on social media attacked Bankhead in July, ignoring Bodnar entirely.

“Democrat-backed independents all support the same socialist policies and middle-class tax hikes that made Democrats toxic across the country,” Joanna Rodriguez, the communications director for the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said in a statement. “Republicans will defeat them in November.”

The inside calls for Beaudion and Bankhead to step aside aren’t just coming from Washington. Many local Democrats in Montana and South Dakota have said publicly they should not continue their campaigns. Nancy Keenan, the former executive director of the Montana Democratic Party who has endorsed Bodnar, wrote in a June op-ed that “there is not a viable path for a Democratic victory in this race.”

Bennett, the Third Way co-founder, went further, saying if Democrats fail to flip the Senate in November, the blame would lie at the hands of Bankhead and Beaudion.

“If we fumble away a majority because these no hope candidates are too vain to get out of the race, that’ll be a political calamity,” he said. “These people need to understand that they will become pariahs.”

Bankhead doesn’t see it that way.

“I’m not swayed by it because I’m not here for power and money,” she said. “It’s still the old, rich D.C. powerful political circles that are trying to keep more progressive candidates out of the fight so they can maintain the status quo.”

​Politics

FCC chair Brendan Carr on Trump, free speech and his threats against broadcasters

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​Politics

Americans are largely tolerant of scandals among politicians. But nobody is more willing to stick by an embattled candidate than a MAGA voter.

The POLITICO Poll finds President Donald Trump’s MAGA supporters are the most loyal of any group of voters — with majorities saying they would stick by GOP candidates confronted with an array of scandals, from a DUI conviction or accepting lobbyist gifts to more serious accusations including domestic violence, sexual assault and antisemitic social media posts.

Two-thirds of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say they would continue supporting a GOP candidate accused of sexual assault — 13 percentage points higher than the share of Trump 2024 voters writ large, which include those who do not identify as MAGA. By comparison, 40 percent of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 would continue backing a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault.

Seventy-two percent of MAGA Trump voters say they would stick with a GOP candidate accused of domestic violence, more than 10 percentage points higher than the overall share of Trump 2024 voters who would back a GOP candidate (61 percent). Thirty-nine percent of Harris voters say they’d stick with a Democrat accused of domestic violence.

Scandal in American politics is not new, but the poll results help underscore how Trump has helped reshape partisan loyalty. Across every hypothetical scandal tested, MAGA Trump voters were more loyal than the rest of the electorate.

The president has displayed a remarkable ability to withstand controversy himself, from the Access Hollywood tape to his four criminal indictments, and a willingness to back other MAGA-aligned candidates, boosting them to victory even if they have past controversies. Three of four of Trump’s criminal cases were thrown out or dropped once he returned to the White House, while the fourth, his conviction in the Manhattan hush money case, is under appeal.

That’s true in some of the most pivotal races of the 2026 midterm cycle, which has been defined by scandal on both sides of the aisle: Democrats stood by Graham Platner in Maine’s Senate race throughout a series of scandals until abandoning him following a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. The GOP has rallied behind embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Republican voters in Arizona also recently selected former Arizona sheriff Mark Lamb as their nominee in a House race amid allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse of power. Lamb has denied the allegations.

In both cases, Trump was a decisive factor propelling them across the finish line.

“Scandal doesn’t mean what it did 15 years ago. The rules have changed, and Republican voters know it,” said longtime Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Republicans, particularly MAGA voters, have learned that Queensberry rules don’t win in modern politics. Today it’s a full-contact fight, more UFC than civics class, and anything goes.”

Americans on both sides are willing to tolerate scandals — up to a point.

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by independent U.K.-based polling firm Public First, tested a dozen hypothetical scandals and found near-majorities of voters across the political spectrum would stand by candidates with DUI convictions or accused of using tax loopholes, concealing a terminal illness or exaggerating their military service.

None of the hypothetical scandals caused MAGA voters to abandon a GOP candidate, with majorities across every scenario tested saying they would stick with the candidate, including through accusations of domestic violence or sexual assault. Trump’s 2024 voting coalition as a whole was also generally more likely to continue voting for the GOP candidate, even after a scandal, with the exception of when a candidate made antisemitic comments.

Harris 2024 voters, however, drew a line. Facing some scandals, such as a Democratic candidate accepting gifts from lobbyists or accused of domestic violence or sexual assault, more Harris voters would either stay home or vote Republican than stick with their party’s nominee.

That dynamic has played out on the campaign trail. In Maine, Platner weathered months of controversy, including over past Reddit posts and a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol, and only dropped out of the race after POLITICO’s report that a woman said he forced her to have sex with him, an allegation he denies.

“In hindsight, knowing what we know now, the Reddit posts alone probably should have been enough …. The tattoo should have been enough. The initial New York Times story on troubling behavior should have been enough,” former top Platner adviser Morris Katz recently told the New York Times.

The survey also found that principled opposition to scandal shifts when voters face practical realities.

To test those considerations, the survey presented respondents with candidates from different parties — and found a significant partisan gap. Democrats were slightly more willing to say that Republicans should drop out than Democratic candidates should, to the tune of about a five-point difference. But across nearly all scenarios, Republican voters were significantly more likely to say the Democrat should drop out over the same scandal than the Republican should.

For example, 71 percent of Republicans said a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault should drop out of the race. Asked the same question about a Republican candidate, that fell to 52 percent.

“For most voters, scandal is one ingredient among many in a partisan calculation, it is no longer a standalone verdict,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston who has researched political scandal.

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The Democratic Party’s fight over Israel is returning to where it began. Jewish Democrats are warning the results could push them out of the party entirely.

In Michigan, where grassroots anger over the Biden administration’s approach to the war in Gaza gave rise to the “uncommitted” movement in 2024, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent a record $30 million — more than double its next-highest spend ever, according to AdImpact data — to keep progressive and staunch Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed from defeating pro-Israel Rep. Haley Stevens in the state’s hotly contested Democratic Senate primary.

And in Missouri, AIPAC is spending $2 million to block Israel-critical Cori Bush’s comeback bid. This comes after the group uncorked $9 million last cycle to unseat her.

“There’s a high level of discomfort in the Jewish community,” said Sam Lauter, founding member of Democratic Majority for Israel, which has endorsed Stevens and Bush’s opponent, Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), but hasn’t spent money on advertising.

If El-Sayed and Bush score victories, he said, “it does mean that my community is going to have to reassess how we’re approaching this battle, reassess our role in the party itself.”

Tuesday’s primaries represent a fork-in-the-road moment for pro-Israel Democrats. Groups like AIPAC and DMFI have waded into Democratic primaries this cycle with mixed results. Progressives have scored wins in New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois in part by capitalizing on voters’ negative attitudes toward Israel, in some cases toppling longtime incumbents who were more Israel-friendly, while also falling short in some races.

Michigan and Missouri mark one of progressives’ last opportunities to cement a foothold in the party ahead of November. If Stevens and Bell lose on Tuesday, some Jewish Democrats worry their defeats could represent a tipping point for the Democratic Party, completely reshuffling the political landscape ahead of a general-election fight in which both chambers of Congress hang in the balance — and rendering many pro-Israel Democrats politically orphaned.

“It makes it very uncomfortable for elected Jewish Democrats like myself to wonder, when every other thing is about, you know, Israel and Jews, what’s my place in this party?” said Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit, founder of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus. “Can I see myself in this party? Can I continue to feel comfortable being elected on the Democratic Party line?”

Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for United Democracy Project, insisted pro-Israel Democrats “are here to stay.”

“We are not going to let pro-Israel voices in the Democratic Party be silenced,” he said. “We are going to make sure that pro-Israel voices are heard in the primary process, this year and in the future.”

The race for Michigan Senate and Missouri’s 1st District quickly turned into referendums on the party’s once unwavering support for the longtime U.S. ally and AIPAC’s highly controversial interventions in Democratic primaries. Bush’s campaign has accused Bell of “abandoning” Missourians and “jetting off to Israel with AIPAC,” while El-Sayed has attacked Stevens for aligning herself“with AIPAC and Republicans to continue to fund a war machine.”

Bush’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. In a statement, El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said the campaign has sought to unify Michigan residents “from all walks of life — across ages, races and faiths — around getting money out of politics, money back in pockets, and Medicare for All.”

Both races are a callback to earlier fights over Israel that have divided the Democratic Party and that accelerated in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. Nearly 60 percent of Democrats believe the party is too supportive of Israel, an AP-NORC survey from June found, an increase from 45 percent of Democrats who felt similarly in January 2024.

Bell’s primary win over Bush in 2024 was one of AIPAC’s biggest wins last cycle. Israel-critical Democrats in Michigan, meanwhile, hammered Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris for not prioritizing Gaza in their campaigns.

“That felt like people were upset with the war in Gaza,” Andy Schor, mayor of Lansing, Michigan, and one of the highest-ranking Jewish elected officials in the state. “Now it feels like these candidates are anti-Israel.”

Richner countered that El-Sayed “has continuously emphasized the importance of differentiating between criticisms of the Israeli government and Judaism and the Jewish people.”

“He understands that the fights against antisemitism and islamophobia are intertwined, and as Michigan’s next U.S. Senator, will work to stamp both out,” she said in a statement.

The Michigan race also marks a unique litmus test for pro-Israel Democrats in a purple state that is poised to have an outsized role in selecting the party’s next presidential nominee and, eventually, the next occupant of the White House. The Democratic National Committee put forward a proposal earlier this month to make Michigan one of six early contests in 2028.

Dennis Bernard, the Jewish Federation of North America’s national chair of government relations, said an El-Sayed victory would be the most compelling evidence yet that “there is a strong anti-Israel, antisemitic streak within the Democratic Party, and it’s growing, and it’s growing outside of just hard blue states.” Bernard, who has historically supported politicians on both sides of the aisle, is backing Stevens in Tuesday’s primary.

Still, Michigan’s Senate race has divided the Jewish community. Some leading Jewish activists are backing El-Sayed — including progressive former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost a primary to Stevens in 2022 that was a proxy war between rival pro-Israel groups J Street and AIPAC.

“I think that Abdul El-Sayed feels that he has an opportunity and a responsibility to be a leader in the United States of the movement for Palestinian rights, and so he modulates his politics around this very carefully,” Levin said.

Arbit, the Michigan state representative, said he’s resigned to Israel’s diminishing relevance in the party ahead of the next presidential primary, regardless of how Tuesday’s primaries play out.

“I find it very hard to imagine that we’re going to have a candidate who is quote-unquote pro-Israel. I don’t know how that works,” he said of the 2028 presidential primary. “I just think the party grassroots is so poisoned against the state of Israel.”

Shia Kapos contributed reporting.

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