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Politics
Category: Politics
Michigan Democratic Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed is facing backlash from within his own party after using controversial rhetoric to describe the stakes of his victory in a recent donor meeting.
“If I win … well y’all came at me so now I get to come at you, and you know, primarying people like John Fetterman, I have no problem to do that,” he said, according to audio of a Zoom meeting obtained by POLITICO. “Ideally you put one ogre on a pike, and then everyone else gets the message, and all of a sudden starts to sound a lot different,” El-Sayed added later, referencing how he could help propel the progressive moment.
On Monday, several Democrats were quick to slam his comments.
“Violent, vulgar threats have no place in a democratic electoral contest,” said Rep. Hillary Scholten (D-Mich.). “With political violence on the rise, we need to be doing everything we can to lower the temperature — not raise it. It’s the American people who suffer most when we degrade the political process this way.”
Some took El-Sayed’s remarks as an attack on the party. Shannon Watts, founder of gun violence prevention group Moms Demand Action, said on X that El-Sayed “doesn’t mean Republicans.”
Another gun control activist, Fred Guttenberg, wrote: “That is what Abdul El-Sayed and his DSA movement think of Democrats and the party.” Guttenberg — whose daughter was killed in the Parkland, Florida, school shooting — urged Michiganders to support El-Sayed’s primary opponent, Rep. Haley Stevens, and “show AES the loss he deserves.”
An El-Sayed campaign spokesperson referred POLITICO back to an earlier statement that the candidate was “speaking metaphorically” about his intention to support a primary against Fetterman, a Pennsylvania senator. Fetterman and El-Sayed have clashed over support for Israel.
The senator, who possesses a towering stature, has been mocked for his physical appearance by political rivals, and the “ogre” moniker partly stems from an attack by Kari Lake, a failed Republican Arizona gubernatorial candidate and ally of President Donald Trump.
“I pick being Senator Shrek over being the Pontiac Platner any day,” Fetterman said in a statement, referencing former Senate Maine Democratic nominee Graham Platner, who ended his campaign following a sexual assault allegation against him.
El-Sayed’s leaked comments and the reaction to them amount to another flashpoint in a tense primary that is dividing the progressive and moderate wings of the party, and at times has been defined by accusations of racism and sexism.
A few Democrats assumed the candidate’s comments were a reference to Stevens, though El-Sayed had not explicitly mentioned his opponent in the portion of the call POLITICO reviewed.
“Calling your female opponent an ogre you want to put on a pike is not beating the rap that this race has some serious sexism,” Neera Tanden, a centrist Democrat and president of the Center for American Progress, posted on X. Melissa Byrne, a former staffer for Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), called the remark an “unforced error” that is “really bad and beneath the progressive project.” She later deleted the post.
“Abdul continues with personal insults and making this race about his personal political ambitions and the other 49 states,” said Arik Wolk, spokesperson for the Stevens campaign. “Haley is focused on getting things done for Michigan, and only Michigan.”
Republicans, too, jumped on the comment, with some leaning into stereotypes of El-Sayed’s religion as a Muslim. “Michigan Islamist discusses beheading his opponents,” said Steve Guest, a former staffer for Sen. Ted Cruz, on X.
This is not the first time El-Sayed has used — and defended — aggressive political rhetoric. “When they go low, we don’t go high,” the progressive said while speaking at a campaign rally earlier this year, riffing on a famous line from former first lady Michelle Obama. “We take them to the mud and choke them out.”
He and Stevens will face off in their final Democratic Senate debate Monday night, and the results of the Aug. 4 primary could have major consequences for the party as it grapples with its ideological tack ahead of the 2028 presidential election.
Politics
BANGOR, Maine — Republicans had months to research and rebuke Graham Platner. They now have exactly 100 days to sink his replacement.
Troy Jackson is like Platner but worse. He’s a socialist who’s flip-flopped on policy, a career politician who keeps losing, an insider who is also unknown. His nomination was illegitimate, he has anger issues, and he lacks “rizz.”
That’s just a sampling of the messaging the GOP plans to use to trounce Jackson, the former Maine Senate president who lost this year’s Democratic gubernatorial primary only to glide this weekend into the party’s nomination to challenge Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) in November.
“Mainers already rejected Troy Jackson once this year after his failed campaign for governor. Now Democrats are asking voters to believe the politician they didn’t want leading Augusta belongs in the United States Senate,” the NRSC, Senate Republicans’ campaign arm, wrote in a “messaging guidance” document about Jackson, viewed by Playbook. “Jackson is a radical, ill-tempered career politician whose failed record and socialist agenda make him unfit to represent Maine.”
The stakes are high. Collins is the only Republican senator running for re-election this cycle in a state Kamala Harris won in 2024, and Democrats’ hopes of retaking the chamber track straight through Maine — a reality the NRSC admitted is possible in its new donor memo, shared first with Playbook, acknowledging that “Jackson is fully capable of winning this seat if we become complacent.”
Republicans’ first plan of attack is to link Jackson to Platner, with whom he campaigned and shares much of his populist platform. As soon as Jackson’s nomination became official yesterday, the Senate Leadership Fund, the Senate GOP’s super PAC, announced that it was launching asix-figure ad blitz that begins by depicting the two Democrats hugging on stage.
“Jackson is like Graham Platner but worse,” the ad says, citing reporting from WaPo, CNN and other outlets about Jackson’s alleged sharp temper and heated interactions with colleagues.
The NRSC yesterday posted a video on X depicting Platner literally transforming into Jackson — with the caption “No tattoo, same crazy,” a reference to Platner’s tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol. “Troy Jackson is all the baggage without the ‘rizz,” James Blair, who leads President Donald Trump’s outside political operation, said on X.
Jackson campaigned alongside Platner and stood by him through several scandals — until POLITICO reported earlier this month that a woman who dated Platner said he had sexually assaulted her, a claim Platner denies. In response, Jackson publicly disavowed Platner and said he had “lied to me.”
Jackson told reporters yesterday he has not spoken to Platner since then. Asked to respond to SLF’s ad, Jackson said “anyone that I may have argued with, that I might have went too far or got too passionate, I apologize to.”
The GOP’s second push is to brand Jackson as a “political insider” — a bid to undermine his populist bonafides at a time when voters from neither party trust establishment politicians. “We must act immediately to define him before national Democrats frame him as a populist outsider,” the NRSC memo said.
“Chuck Schumer forcefully removed Graham Platner from the ballot against the will of Maine voters, only to replace him with a deranged and scandal-plagued political insider,” SLF Communications Director Chris Gustafson said in a statement to POLITICO.
Part of that strategy is to not only label Jackson as a longserving member of the establishment (Collins, for what it’s worth, has held her seat for nearly three decades), but as a political insider who has failed when seeking higher office. As state Senate president, Jackson was the second-highest ranking official in Maine — but he ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination for Congress in 2014 and for governor earlier this year, a fresh wound Republicans are eager to pick at.
Compounding that insider image is the way Maine Democrats selected Jackson: While more than 200,000 Mainers voted for Platner in the primary, just 566 Democratic delegates actively chose Jackson at yesterday’s nominating convention — a fact Republicans hope to spin into a narrative that Jackson was coronated by party insiders. “Not one single vote was cast for Troy Jackson” in the Senate race, RNC Chair Joe Gruters said on X.
“Just one month ago, Troy came in third in the Democratic primary for Governor. Now he will run for Senate as the third choice of his party insiders,” Collins campaign spokesperson Shawn Roderick said in a statement to Playbook. He added, “in a process concocted by the Maine Democratic Party establishment, a 24-year Augusta insider was appointed to run for the Senate by fewer than three-tenths of one percent of its primary voters.”
Jackson, for his part, appears committed to maintaining his image as a populist who, as has become his campaign motto, comes neither from the left nor the right, but “from the bottom.” He’s more eager to bring up being a fifth-generation logger than his decades of experience in state politics — and at any mention of his relationship to Platner, he’s quick to pivot to his role as part of a broader pro-worker movement. And his campaign is staying laser-focused on attacking Collins.
“Only Susan Collins could spend nearly 30 years in Washington voting with Donald Trump 96 percent of the time and taking millions from corporate special interests, then call a fifth-generation logger from Allagash a ‘party insider,’” Jackson campaign adviser BJ McCollister said in a statement to Playbook. “Mainers know who Troy Jackson is—and they know exactly who Susan Collins works for.”
Asked yesterday to respond to the GOP messaging shortly after clinching the official nomination, Jackson told reporters that he attributes Republicans’ attacks to “Senator Collins trying to make sure that she can win re-election on a really bad record.”
“I’ve been in the legislature for 20 years,” he added. “I do believe I’ve been vetted. I’ve been tested. People know exactly what I’m fighting for. They know that I’ve had their back, and they know they can trust me.”
Andrew Howard contributed to this report.
Politics
McALLEN, Texas — Just miles from the U.S.-Mexico border, Ken Paxton is trying to inherit President Donald Trump’s historic gains with Hispanic voters.
The Texas GOP Senate nominee, speaking to hundreds of supporters last week at his first campaign rally in this region that’s almost entirely Latino, revealed how Republicans believe that’s possible: by touting Trump’s closure of the border and hitting Democrats over the head with the culture war — while ignoring the drag his mass deportations have had on the region.
The GOP faithful, clad in signature MAGA red and a few scattered Trump 2028 hats, gathered at a beer hall outdoors in 100-degree heat to greet the Republican Senate nominee and other candidates. Attendees ate up the Republicans’ constant jabs at Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico. Eric Flores, the challenger to Democratic Rep. Vicente Gonzalez, called Talarico a “gay vegan” and “low T.” Paxton belittled Talarico, a seminarian student and critic of Christian nationalism, for referring to himself as a “Christian who hates Christianity.”
It’s an approach key to Paxton’s strategy, as Republican Senate nominee, to slice into Talarico’s widening polling lead with Hispanic voters, who could prove decisive for who wins the competitive Senate seat and a litany of other races that will determine which party takes power in Washington come November.
“Once this community knows what [Talarico’s] views are on transitioning boys into girls, and girls into boys, and boys and girls sports, they’re not going to support it,” Paxton told reporters after the rally, in response to a question of how he intends to keep Hispanic voters in the fold after they swung toward Trump in 2024.
This has worked before for the Texas GOP. Sen. Ted Cruz blitzed the airways in the 2024 Senate race with attack ads against former Rep. Colin Allred about transgender youth participation in sports. Republicans branded Wendy Davis “abortion Barbie” following her successful protest against an anti-abortion law in the state legislature.
But outside the carefully choreographed event is a community getting pummelled by the president’s increasingly unpopular immigration agenda — a reality that’s given Democrats a strong opening with Latinos as they attempt to end a decades-long losing streak in statewide races. Interviews with local lawmakers, business leaders and voters on both sides of the aisle reveal that Democratic candidates like Talarico and gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa have so far been successful at appealing to Hispanic voters feeling the economic strain under Trump.
Talarico, who appeared in McAllen for an event 16 hours after Paxton’s, kept his pitch focused on the cost of living, handing out hot plates of food and calling for a reversal in health care cuts under the GOP budget bill enacted last year.
“He’s pretty steady and focused on the issues that matter to families,” said Democratic state Sen. Juan Hinojosa, whose district spans Corpus Christi to McAllen.
“Democrats get sidetracked on all these cultural issues, and they need to stay focused on what I call the bread butter issues, issues that impact families directly, the kitchen table issues,” he said. “Democrats need to stay away from biting the hook that’s being put out by Paxton.”
A community being squeezed
The Rio Grande Valley is buckling under the weight of Trump’s policies, and the economic strain is visible in McAllen.
Deportations have dried up workforces in critical industries like construction that drive the local economy, leaving cement slabs half-poured. A traffic chokehold at the border has slowed business in retail and restaurants as Mexicans have been deterred from hopping over to the U.S. for the day.
The entire border is being squeezed. Laredo, located more than 150 miles from McAllen, is one of the nation’s top trade hubs, and its leaders are warning that Trump’s tariffs and his threat to eliminate the USMCA trade agreement stands to devastate international commerce that flows through the city.
“When the U.S. doesn’t provide economic opportunity for the people at the border, it will create this situation,” said Laredo Mayor Victor D. Treviño, a Democrat, in an interview.
The Paxton campaign dismissed concerns of Democrats’ gains with Latinos, especially in the Rio Grande Valley — and once again emphasized the culture war, which Republicans say resonates with socially conservative Latinos.
“Look, Hispanic families aren’t voting for a woke vegan who says God is nonbinary and wants to Latinx our children,” said Alex Alarcon, director of Hispanic outreach for the Paxton campaign, in a statement. “We’re proud of our culture and our faith, and Ken Paxton has spent his career fighting for us: a secure border to protect our families, a cost of living we can actually afford, and the freedom to live by our values.”
Still, the tide seems to be turning toward Democrats.
A dozen residents along the border said in interviews that they are satisfied illegal border crossings have dropped to record lows, a realization of one of Trump’s top campaign promises and one of the reasons he won over Hispanic voters in the region. But they also believe the crackdown has gone too far. More than 60 percent of Hispanics said Trump’s mass deportations campaign — including his widespread deployment of ICE agents across the U.S. — has been too aggressive, according to a July POLITICO Poll.
In McAllen last week, the community was still aghast over a nun who was recently arrested by ICE while walking to church. She was later released after GOP Rep. Monica De La Cruz and Democrat Rep. Henry Cuellar intervened, but interviews with residents revealed they still live in fear: Even U.S. citizens are checking their pockets for ID before venturing out, and they try to steer clear of the border if possible.
Across Texas, one in five Hispanic business owners said they’ve had an employee deported in the past year and 70 percent have been impacted by Trump’s tariffs, according to a June survey commissioned by the U.S. Hispanic Business Council and shared first with POLITICO. Talarico holds a seven-point lead over Paxton among those surveyed — even though a plurality of them self-identified as Republican.
A national Republican close to the race, granted anonymity to speak freely, countered that Paxton stands to benefit from some of the most competitive House races taking place in South Texas — where Republican Tano Tijerina and Flores are trying to oust Reps. Henry Cuellar and Gonzalez, respectively, and Rep. Monica De La Cruz is fending off a challenge from Tejano music star Bobby Pulido. GOP campaigns have stood up multiple field centers in those districts drawn to favor Republicans under a new Congressional map, a ground game that is expected to boost Paxton at the top of the ticket, the person said.
They added that internal message testing shows some of the attacks on Talarico, specifically those regarding his past comments on gender, “is unlike anything we’ve ever seen with Hispanic men, just in terms of the amount that it moves them.”
Daniel Garza, president of the LIBRE Initiative, a grassroots conservative group based in South Texas, said Trump’s closure of the border has affirmed Hispanic’s support for him, and Democrats aren’t offering viable pro-growth economic plans.
“Democrats have failed to give Latino voters something to vote for, and that they’ve only focused solely on something you know for us to vote against. And that’s not good enough,” he said. “[Latinos] want less tax burden, less regulatory burden, more energy production.”
Talarico’s pitch to Hispanics
Talarico was also in McAllen, just one day after Paxon’s rally, to host a fundraising benefit — the final stop on a 750-mile bus tour hitting small towns along the border to deliver a message about lowering costs and creating jobs. In an attempt to cast himself as a tough-on-immigration Democrat, Talarico unveiled a border security plan that includes hiring more Border Patrol agents, a major employer in South Texas, and adding immigration judges to reduce the asylum backlog.
It’s part of his attempt to widen his current edge over Paxton with Hispanics, with a New York Times poll in June showing Talarico is winning the demographic by a 61 percent to 29 percent margin — a significant shift after Trump won 55 percent of Hispanic voters in Texas in 2024.
“You could drive a truck through the margin of error on the Times’ subsample,” Alarcon, Paxton’s Hispanic outreach director, said. “The fact is nobody is winning Hispanic voters by default this cycle. We’ll be in Spanish-language media from the Valley to Dallas, talking about groceries, gas, health care and a secure border.”
Still, Talarico’s lead has given Democratic party leaders hope amid their national tug-of-war with Republicans over Hispanic voters: If Talarico can hold onto Texas’ large Latino population by these margins through November, that would prove gradual gains over the past decade for Republicans were a temporary blip ahead of the 2028 presidential race.
Under the midday sweltering sun in McAllen, Talarico handed out hot plates of food to a line of people who had donated to a local woman struggling to pay for cancer treatment. The Democratic Senate nominee, while speaking to reporters later, dismissed Paxton’s attempts to appeal to Hispanic voters by making personal attacks against him.
Republicans are attempting to divide people, Talarico said, “so we don’t notice that they’re picking our pockets, that they’re closing our public schools, that they’re gutting our health care, that they’re raising taxes on working people while they cut taxes for billionaires. It’s the oldest strategy in the world.”
Talarico’s campaign is leaning hard into its outreach to the Hispanic community, including efforts like running a Spanish-language ad during the World Cup talking about his background as a teacher, plans to defend Medicaid and social security, and push to raise taxes on billionaires. He also ran an ad during the Mexico vs. Panama soccer match and launched a Spanish-language social media channel.
Local Democratic party officials have begun targeted organizing efforts to turn out Hispanic voters throughout the Rio Grande Valley. But the challenge, they say, is convincing Hispanics running away from Republicans to instead run toward Democrats and not stay home in November.
Democrats are heartened by an uptick in primary turnout in the region, which in March saw more than double the number of primary voters than in 2024. Trump carried all four counties in the RGV that year, the first time in history a Republican has won them at the presidential level, but Democrats won at every level down ballot.
“We’re hoping to carry that momentum,” said Hidalgo County Democratic chair Richard Gonzales, referring to the high primary turnout. “Republicans beat us because they made it seem like they could solve the problems. They got in and then they just created more problems.”
Politics
Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer endorsed Rep. Haley Stevens in her state’s contentious Democratic Senate primary on Friday, wading into one of the highest-profile ideological battles within the Democratic Party.
“As governor, I have one strategy: Get things done. And that strategy informs everything that I do, and that’s why I’m endorsing Haley Stevens for the U.S. Senate,” Whitmer said in a video posted to Stevens’ account.
Stevens is hosting a meet-and-greet alongside the governor and Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) in Detroit Friday afternoon.
Stevens and former public health official Abdul El-Sayed are the two major Democratic candidates competing in the Aug. 4 primary to replace retiring Sen. Gary Peters.
El-Sayed’s candidacy has galvanized progressives, while Stevens has backing from more mainstream Democrats and the tacit support of Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.
“I am absolutely thrilled to have Gov @GretchenWhitmer’s endorsement for U.S. Senate,” Stevens said in a post on social media. “She is a champion for our state, she understands the stakes of this race and why it’s so important we elect the strongest Dem in this primary, and she gets stuff done for Michigan. Let’s go win!”
The race has gained national attention as Democrats aim to keep the seat blue and Republicans vie to flip the seat.
Whoever wins the Democratic nomination will face GOP candidate and former Rep. Mike Rogers, who has been endorsed by President Donald Trump, in November.
Stevens and El-Sayed represent the party’s ideological split, with Stevens representing the more moderate lane of the party and El-Sayed the progressive wing. That’s also evident in who endorsed them. Stevens received an additional endorsement from outgoing Sen. Gary Peters and El-Sayed has been endorsed by more progressive lawmakers such as Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.), Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) and Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).
In Warren’s endorsement video, she praised El-Sayed’s vow to not take corporate money while taking a jab at Stevens, who has benefitted from a slew of outside donations — including nearly $30 million from the AIPAC-aligned United Democracy Project.
Politics
Democrats voted to make South Carolina their first presidential primary state for 2028 — a significant shift from past election cycles, and one that prioritizes a state with a significant Black voting bloc.
The Democratic National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee on Friday scheduled the Palmetto State’s primary for Jan. 22 and tentatively set the rest of its early-voting calendar in a surprisingly tense voting session. It will be followed by Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan and Virginia.
The decision to choose South Carolina over Nevada, another historic early state in contention for first place, came down in part to concerns about Nevada’s ability to process election results quickly. Democrats said they were also looking to strengthen Black voting power in the South after the Supreme Court significantly restricted the Voting Rights Act earlier this year, which triggered redistricting efforts.
Michigan bested Iowa in the vote to be the Midwest’s early state — a notable departure, as Iowa led the calendar for decades through 2020. New Hampshire, which has gone second on the nominating calendar in most past cycles, got bumped back to third place.
Then, things got tense.
The committee voted to add Virginia and New Mexico to host early-state primaries for the first time. But Democrats also proposed having New Mexico vote on Feb. 15, before Michigan, because Democrats there can’t move their primary unilaterally.
That’s a major departure from a monthslong, widely agreed upon plan from the DNC members to give one of the first four early states to the South, Northeast, West and Midwest. The adopted calendar leaves the Midwest, a crucial region for Democrats’ path to victory in 2028, represented fifth, and sparked frustration from a number of Midwestern members of the DNC.
“We had four regions for a reason, and we should be respecting that,” Rep. Debbie Dingell (D-Mich.) said during the meeting. “For too long, Democrats flew over the Midwest.”
The proposed calendar will be voted on by the full DNC at its August meeting in Austin.
The slate of early nominating states — and their specific order — will significantly shape the path to victory for the field of Democrats eyeing the 2028 presidential nomination. It elevates the South and Southwest, which boasts large populations of Black and Latino voters, and weakens the voices of Democrats from the Northeast and Midwest.
And it happened partly by accident.
Jane Kleeb, chair of the Nebraska Democratic Party, said the mid-September deadline to move a state’s primary date caught her and other members by surprise – and ultimately ended up costing Michigan an even more prominent placement.
“The rule was passed last year. A lot of us, because we deal with a lot of things, just forgot about it,” Kleeb said. “We all thought we had until Jan. 15, which would have given more time to do it.”
Dennis Speight, a DNC member from Texas who supported New Mexico getting moved into the early round of states, argued it would have gotten lost if it had been stuck between two larger states.
“We wanted to do mostly smaller states first, and did not want New Mexico, which we spent a lot of time adding to the mix to get to that sixth state, to get lost in that shock,” Speight said after the vote. “If we had sandwiched New Mexico in between Michigan and Virginia, given their number of delegates, New Mexico might have gotten lost.”
DNC chair Ken Martin, who previously led the Minnesota Democratic Party, said he believes Michigan will still play a big role in selecting the next nominee.
“As a proud Midwesterner, I want to make sure that Michigan does not get overlooked,” Martin said after the meeting. “When you think of all the other states and the number of delegates that will come out of Michigan and Virginia compared to the other states, there’s no way they’re going to be overlooked in that process.”
And Dingell said after the vote that Michigan’s role as the first large state on the calendar would prevent it from being overshadowed, adding that presidential candidates “are going to be there, they’re going to have to talk about the issues.”
Friday’s vote was the culmination of months of intense lobbying by some of the top politicians and operatives across the nation’s battlegrounds, a furious effort that played out in public letters and over private drinks and included handwritten notes from New Mexico Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham and literal sweeteners in swag bags of local goods.
South Carolina and Nevada, which in recent years had been third and fourth in the process, emerged as frontrunners as Democrats who’ve long bemoaned the lack of diversity in Iowa and New Hampshire looked for ways to make increased overtures to Black and Latino voters. That desire only grew in the wake of the Supreme Court’s Callais ruling — and prompted Virginia to elevate a second southern state into the early window.
Some Democrats additionally pointed to South Carolina’s role in propelling former President Joe Biden to the nomination in 2020. Biden won the state resoundingly, boosting his then-floundering campaign after underwhelming performances in Iowa and New Hampshire, before racking up huge victories across the Black-heavy South on Super Tuesday that launched him to victory.
“They saved our entire country from Donald Trump,” said Kleeb. “They didn’t just do it in 2020. They’ve done it over and over and over again.”
“Our party must acknowledge this now with actions,” she continued.
A number of potential 2028ers have already visited South Carolina well in advance of the DNC’s meetings. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.), Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.), and former ambassador Rahm Emanuel have all traveled to the state this year. California Gov. Gavin Newsom, Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear and Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) visited the state last summer.
Nevada, a union-heavy battleground state with a diverse electorate and large Latino population, argued it was better positioned for the leadoff spot than reliably red South Carolina — a push backed by the Congressional Hispanic Caucus and Xavier Becerra, who is running to be the first Latino governor of neighboring California. But some RBC members worried Nevada’s grace period for counting late-arriving mail ballots could delay results and inject chaos into the nominating process from the jump if it was the first state.
New Hampshire and Iowa Democrats decried the proposed calendar, which overturns their premium positions from past cycles.
“The Democratic National Committee’s decision today is wrong for Democrats, wrong for New Hampshire, and wrong for the country,” said New Hampshire Sens. Jeanne Shaheen and Maggie Hassan, and Reps. Chris Pappas and Maggie Goodlander in a statement.
“This is just another example that National Democrats are truly out of touch with voters. Iowa is the center of the political universe right now,” Iowa Democratic Party chair Rita Hart said.
The DNC unsuccessfully attempted to add Georgia to its early window in 2024. Peach State Democrats were candid that their ability to fill a top slot would hinge on whether they were able to flip the governor’s and secretary of state’s offices in November — a gamble RBC members seemed unwilling to make. North Carolina also faced logistical hurdles.
Politics
Gas prices are high. Americans think they’re even higher.
Three in five Americans believe gas prices in their area have risen by more than they actually have, according to an analysis of new results from The POLITICO Poll. It’s those perceptions that candidates will be running against this fall.
Voters’ anxieties about fuel prices could give Democrats a boost ahead of the midterms, further strengthening the Democratic voting base and putting strains on the MAGA coalition as the increasingly unpopular war in Iran drags on. A plurality of Americans — 46 percent — say the change in gas prices will impact how they plan to vote come November.
Most voters overestimated the change in gas prices in their area, according to the analysis of polling and granular pricing data provided by OPIS, a Dow Jones company that tracks gas prices. That includes majorities of voters who supported President Donald Trump and also those who supported former Vice President Kamala Harris.
Roughly one in four Americans say gas in their local area has risen by $3.00 or more. But no zip code has actually seen that degree of change on average in the year and a half since Trump took office, as of early July.
Frustrations over cost of living could be reinforcing existing negative views of the Trump administration: Harris voters are far more likely to overshoot the cost jumps than Trump voters, making it harder for Republicans to peel off Democratic voters.
And the analysis shows a fracture among Trump voters. Self-identified MAGA Republicans were more likely to underestimate cost increases than non-MAGA Republicans — another crack in the president’s winning coalition as Republicans scramble to hold it together for the midterms.
“It is a particularly tough dance that many Republican candidates will have to endure for the next three months,” said Arizona GOP strategist Barrett Marson. “How do you feel the pain of your voters without feeling the wrath of Donald Trump?”
What’s more, American’s perceptions do not quickly change even when prices do. The POLITICO Poll asked about gas prices in both May, when they were near their peak, and July, when they had dipped.
The results were the same in both.
“President Trump and his energy team anticipated these temporary market disruptions, communicated them openly to the American people, and implemented an aggressive plan to mitigate any impacts,” said White House spokesperson Taylor Rogers. “As the U.S. military degrades the terrorist Iranian regime’s ability to attack commercial vessels and disrupt the free flow of energy through the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices will plummet back to pre-conflict levels.”
Gas prices could swing votes
Americans’ frustrations with prices and the economy overall are changing how they say they will vote in the fall.
Of the 46 percent of Americans who said gas prices will have an impact on their vote, just under 40 percent said they are considering voting for a different party than they normally would, including 49 percent of MAGA Republicans and 57 percent of non-MAGA Republicans.
“Three quarters of the country is confronting higher gas prices and feeling it,” said longtime Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson. “That leaves them … very vulnerable to the economic pain and very vulnerable to the economic argument the Democrats are going to make.”
To better understand public perception of gas prices, The POLITICO Poll asked Americans how the price of gas in their area had changed since Trump took office. Respondents could choose between buckets like “$1 to $2 higher per gallon,” “$1 to $2 lower per gallon,” or say prices had stayed roughly the same.
More than three-fourths said gas prices in their area have gone up.
Using OPIS data, POLITICO compared each respondent’s answer against the actual average cost of regular gas in their zip code during the first week Trump was in office and the week prior to the July poll, which was conducted by the independent polling organization Public First from July 12 to July 15.
That comparison revealed the difference between the pain the American public is feeling and where actual gas prices stand — and, in particular, how that pain is expressed differently among Democrats and Republicans. Roughly 70 percent of Harris voters and 54 percent of Trump voters overestimated the increase in gas prices in their area, according to POLITICO’s analysis.
“Democrats are highly motivated,” as a voting base, Marson said. “The longer the war goes on, probably the less motivated Republicans will be.”
The perception of higher gas prices is linked to how people see the economy — and who they blame for it.
Across the country, 57 percent of Americans say the cost of living is worse than they “can ever remember it being.” Those who overestimate gas price increases had more than twice the odds of agreeing with that statement, even after controlling for demographics and their 2024 vote.
Similarly, a plurality of Americans — 43 percent — blame Trump more than former President Joe Biden for the state of the economy overall. Those who overestimated their local increase in gas prices had nearly twice the odds of saying the same, compared with those who perceived the change in gas prices correctly or who underestimated the change.
It’s already affecting the battlegrounds
In the country’s most competitive races, Republicans will have to answer for the perceived cost pressures of rising gas prices more often than Democrats.
Thirteen of the most competitive districts have experienced gas price increases higher than the national average, according to POLITICO’s analysis. Of those, nine are currently represented by Republicans.
In California’s 22nd District, where Republican incumbent Rep. David Valadao will face off against progressive political newcomer Randy Villegas, average prices across the district had gone up $1.17 by early July — the third highest increase of any district, according to POLITICO’s analysis.
Villegas said in an interview that he thought frustration over gas prices would mobilize turnout in the fall, driven by how the cost of gas is “tied to every other thing.”
“It’s the cost of gas when you’re driving to the grocery store, when you’re driving to, you know, see a doctor,” he said. Or, the cost of gas when driving 7 to 8 hours away to “go get cheaper health care.”
Valadao did not respond to requests for comment.
In Colorado’s 8th District, where gas prices have risen by $0.73 on average since Trump took office, Republican incumbent Rep. Gabe Evans blamed local Democratic policies for increased costs more than the Iran war.
While “what’s happening halfway around the globe has some impact on global energy prices,” Evans said, high gas prices in the district are “a direct result of the local economic policies — the anti-energy policies — of the state Democrats who run the state of Colorado.”
But The POLITICO Poll results from this month show voters don’t necessarily feel the same. Roughly 63 percent of Americans selected “the war with Iran” as the primary reason why gas prices have increased since Trump took office, including 59 percent of Trump voters and 70 percent of Harris voters.
By the middle of May, the average price of gas across the country reached its highest point of the Trump administration to date: $4.50 per gallon, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. In July, average prices dipped to $3.78 per gallon, the lowest average price since March.
Still, in both months, more than 75 percent of Americans said gas prices had gone up, POLITICO’s polls show. And in both months, roughly 23 percent said prices had gone up by $3.00 or more.
This week, Trump said the upcoming midterms would not impact how he goes about fighting the war with Iran. “I can’t think about that having to do with this,” he said, referring to the elections. “I think people are very impressed.”
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Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here’s an offering of the best of this week’s crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.Politics
Rob Bonta on blocking the Paramount merger, CNN concerns and Trump’s DOJ
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Former state Rep. Amish Shah won the crowded Democratic primary for Arizona’s 1st District on Wednesday, defeating an establishment pick and other well-funded candidates for the battleground seat.
The district, which President Donald Trump carried by just three points in 2024, is one of Democrats’ top pickup opportunities this cycle — and the tight primary evolved into a test of party leaders, after the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee backed former broadcast journalist Marlene Galán-Woods.
In the end, voters rejected Galán-Woods, the latest example of an establishment-backed candidate losing as Democrats continue to show frustration with leaders in Washington.
This year marks the second consecutive time Shah won the district’s Democratic primary: He won it in 2024, before losing to Rep. David Schweikert (R-Ariz.) by four points in the general election.
The seat became open when Schweikert, an eight-term Republican lawmaker, decided to take on another member of the Arizona House delegation, Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.), in the GOP primary for governor.
Shah will take on Jay Feely in the general election. The Trump-endorsed former NFL kicker who spent four seasons with the Arizona Cardinals bested former state Rep. Joseph Chaplik in the Republican primary on Tuesday.
The 1st District surrounds Phoenix in central Arizona, and encompasses wealthy Scottsdale and Paradise Valley as well as large swaths of land to the northeast of the city.
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