Author: alaskaadmin

Americans are largely tolerant of scandals among politicians. But nobody is more willing to stick by an embattled candidate than a MAGA voter.

The POLITICO Poll finds President Donald Trump’s MAGA supporters are the most loyal of any group of voters — with majorities saying they would stick by GOP candidates confronted with an array of scandals, from a DUI conviction or accepting lobbyist gifts to more serious accusations including domestic violence, sexual assault and antisemitic social media posts.

Two-thirds of self-identified MAGA Trump voters say they would continue supporting a GOP candidate accused of sexual assault — 13 percentage points higher than the share of Trump 2024 voters writ large, which include those who do not identify as MAGA. By comparison, 40 percent of voters who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 would continue backing a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault.

Seventy-two percent of MAGA Trump voters say they would stick with a GOP candidate accused of domestic violence, more than 10 percentage points higher than the overall share of Trump 2024 voters who would back a GOP candidate (61 percent). Thirty-nine percent of Harris voters say they’d stick with a Democrat accused of domestic violence.

Scandal in American politics is not new, but the poll results help underscore how Trump has helped reshape partisan loyalty. Across every hypothetical scandal tested, MAGA Trump voters were more loyal than the rest of the electorate.

The president has displayed a remarkable ability to withstand controversy himself, from the Access Hollywood tape to his four criminal indictments, and a willingness to back other MAGA-aligned candidates, boosting them to victory even if they have past controversies. Three of four of Trump’s criminal cases were thrown out or dropped once he returned to the White House, while the fourth, his conviction in the Manhattan hush money case, is under appeal.

That’s true in some of the most pivotal races of the 2026 midterm cycle, which has been defined by scandal on both sides of the aisle: Democrats stood by Graham Platner in Maine’s Senate race throughout a series of scandals until abandoning him following a sexual assault allegation, which he denies. The GOP has rallied behind embattled Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. Republican voters in Arizona also recently selected former Arizona sheriff Mark Lamb as their nominee in a House race amid allegations of sexual misconduct and abuse of power. Lamb has denied the allegations.

In both cases, Trump was a decisive factor propelling them across the finish line.

“Scandal doesn’t mean what it did 15 years ago. The rules have changed, and Republican voters know it,” said longtime Republican strategist Ford O’Connell. “Republicans, particularly MAGA voters, have learned that Queensberry rules don’t win in modern politics. Today it’s a full-contact fight, more UFC than civics class, and anything goes.”

Americans on both sides are willing to tolerate scandals — up to a point.

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by independent U.K.-based polling firm Public First, tested a dozen hypothetical scandals and found near-majorities of voters across the political spectrum would stand by candidates with DUI convictions or accused of using tax loopholes, concealing a terminal illness or exaggerating their military service.

None of the hypothetical scandals caused MAGA voters to abandon a GOP candidate, with majorities across every scenario tested saying they would stick with the candidate, including through accusations of domestic violence or sexual assault. Trump’s 2024 voting coalition as a whole was also generally more likely to continue voting for the GOP candidate, even after a scandal, with the exception of when a candidate made antisemitic comments.

Harris 2024 voters, however, drew a line. Facing some scandals, such as a Democratic candidate accepting gifts from lobbyists or accused of domestic violence or sexual assault, more Harris voters would either stay home or vote Republican than stick with their party’s nominee.

That dynamic has played out on the campaign trail. In Maine, Platner weathered months of controversy, including over past Reddit posts and a tattoo that resembled a Nazi symbol, and only dropped out of the race after POLITICO’s report that a woman said he forced her to have sex with him, an allegation he denies.

“In hindsight, knowing what we know now, the Reddit posts alone probably should have been enough …. The tattoo should have been enough. The initial New York Times story on troubling behavior should have been enough,” former top Platner adviser Morris Katz recently told the New York Times.

The survey also found that principled opposition to scandal shifts when voters face practical realities.

To test those considerations, the survey presented respondents with candidates from different parties — and found a significant partisan gap. Democrats were slightly more willing to say that Republicans should drop out than Democratic candidates should, to the tune of about a five-point difference. But across nearly all scenarios, Republican voters were significantly more likely to say the Democrat should drop out over the same scandal than the Republican should.

For example, 71 percent of Republicans said a Democratic candidate accused of sexual assault should drop out of the race. Asked the same question about a Republican candidate, that fell to 52 percent.

“For most voters, scandal is one ingredient among many in a partisan calculation, it is no longer a standalone verdict,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a political science professor at the University of Houston who has researched political scandal.

​Politics

The Democratic Party’s fight over Israel is returning to where it began. Jewish Democrats are warning the results could push them out of the party entirely.

In Michigan, where grassroots anger over the Biden administration’s approach to the war in Gaza gave rise to the “uncommitted” movement in 2024, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee’s main super PAC, United Democracy Project, has spent a record $30 million — more than double its next-highest spend ever, according to AdImpact data — to keep progressive and staunch Israel critic Abdul El-Sayed from defeating pro-Israel Rep. Haley Stevens in the state’s hotly contested Democratic Senate primary.

And in Missouri, AIPAC is spending $2 million to block Israel-critical Cori Bush’s comeback bid. This comes after the group uncorked $9 million last cycle to unseat her.

“There’s a high level of discomfort in the Jewish community,” said Sam Lauter, founding member of Democratic Majority for Israel, which has endorsed Stevens and Bush’s opponent, Rep. Wesley Bell (D-Mo.), but hasn’t spent money on advertising.

If El-Sayed and Bush score victories, he said, “it does mean that my community is going to have to reassess how we’re approaching this battle, reassess our role in the party itself.”

Tuesday’s primaries represent a fork-in-the-road moment for pro-Israel Democrats. Groups like AIPAC and DMFI have waded into Democratic primaries this cycle with mixed results. Progressives have scored wins in New York, New Jersey, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Illinois in part by capitalizing on voters’ negative attitudes toward Israel, in some cases toppling longtime incumbents who were more Israel-friendly, while also falling short in some races.

Michigan and Missouri mark one of progressives’ last opportunities to cement a foothold in the party ahead of November. If Stevens and Bell lose on Tuesday, some Jewish Democrats worry their defeats could represent a tipping point for the Democratic Party, completely reshuffling the political landscape ahead of a general-election fight in which both chambers of Congress hang in the balance — and rendering many pro-Israel Democrats politically orphaned.

“It makes it very uncomfortable for elected Jewish Democrats like myself to wonder, when every other thing is about, you know, Israel and Jews, what’s my place in this party?” said Michigan state Rep. Noah Arbit, founder of the Michigan Democratic Jewish Caucus. “Can I see myself in this party? Can I continue to feel comfortable being elected on the Democratic Party line?”

Patrick Dorton, a spokesperson for United Democracy Project, insisted pro-Israel Democrats “are here to stay.”

“We are not going to let pro-Israel voices in the Democratic Party be silenced,” he said. “We are going to make sure that pro-Israel voices are heard in the primary process, this year and in the future.”

The race for Michigan Senate and Missouri’s 1st District quickly turned into referendums on the party’s once unwavering support for the longtime U.S. ally and AIPAC’s highly controversial interventions in Democratic primaries. Bush’s campaign has accused Bell of “abandoning” Missourians and “jetting off to Israel with AIPAC,” while El-Sayed has attacked Stevens for aligning herself“with AIPAC and Republicans to continue to fund a war machine.”

Bush’s campaign did not respond to a request for comment. In a statement, El-Sayed campaign spokesperson Roxie Richner said the campaign has sought to unify Michigan residents “from all walks of life — across ages, races and faiths — around getting money out of politics, money back in pockets, and Medicare for All.”

Both races are a callback to earlier fights over Israel that have divided the Democratic Party and that accelerated in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. Nearly 60 percent of Democrats believe the party is too supportive of Israel, an AP-NORC survey from June found, an increase from 45 percent of Democrats who felt similarly in January 2024.

Bell’s primary win over Bush in 2024 was one of AIPAC’s biggest wins last cycle. Israel-critical Democrats in Michigan, meanwhile, hammered Biden and later Vice President Kamala Harris for not prioritizing Gaza in their campaigns.

“That felt like people were upset with the war in Gaza,” Andy Schor, mayor of Lansing, Michigan, and one of the highest-ranking Jewish elected officials in the state. “Now it feels like these candidates are anti-Israel.”

Richner countered that El-Sayed “has continuously emphasized the importance of differentiating between criticisms of the Israeli government and Judaism and the Jewish people.”

“He understands that the fights against antisemitism and islamophobia are intertwined, and as Michigan’s next U.S. Senator, will work to stamp both out,” she said in a statement.

The Michigan race also marks a unique litmus test for pro-Israel Democrats in a purple state that is poised to have an outsized role in selecting the party’s next presidential nominee and, eventually, the next occupant of the White House. The Democratic National Committee put forward a proposal earlier this month to make Michigan one of six early contests in 2028.

Dennis Bernard, the Jewish Federation of North America’s national chair of government relations, said an El-Sayed victory would be the most compelling evidence yet that “there is a strong anti-Israel, antisemitic streak within the Democratic Party, and it’s growing, and it’s growing outside of just hard blue states.” Bernard, who has historically supported politicians on both sides of the aisle, is backing Stevens in Tuesday’s primary.

Still, Michigan’s Senate race has divided the Jewish community. Some leading Jewish activists are backing El-Sayed — including progressive former Rep. Andy Levin, who lost a primary to Stevens in 2022 that was a proxy war between rival pro-Israel groups J Street and AIPAC.

“I think that Abdul El-Sayed feels that he has an opportunity and a responsibility to be a leader in the United States of the movement for Palestinian rights, and so he modulates his politics around this very carefully,” Levin said.

Arbit, the Michigan state representative, said he’s resigned to Israel’s diminishing relevance in the party ahead of the next presidential primary, regardless of how Tuesday’s primaries play out.

“I find it very hard to imagine that we’re going to have a candidate who is quote-unquote pro-Israel. I don’t know how that works,” he said of the 2028 presidential primary. “I just think the party grassroots is so poisoned against the state of Israel.”

Shia Kapos contributed reporting.

​Politics