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Republican Mike Rogers backs Michigan data center moratorium

Republican Mike Rogers expressed support Thursday for a “pause” on data center construction as he runs against a progressive Democrat for Michigan’s open Senate seat.

Michigan is one of the top Senate battlegrounds this cycle, with Democrats hoping to hold on to the seat being vacated by retiring Sen. Gary Peters.

Asked during a news conference about his “policy on data centers,” Rogers said, “I think we need to take a pause, probably, and make sure that we’re answering all the questions that people have.”

Rogers specified to the Detroit News that he supports a one-year moratorium on data centers in Michigan — a proposal state policymakers would approve — not a national ban.

“While I don’t support a federal ban, Michigan needs stronger guardrails to protect community control, prevent utility price hikes, protect our water and stop pay-to-play schemes,” Rogers told the News.

“That is why I am calling for a one-year moratorium on new data centers until we establish a fair, transparent approval process that puts local communities first.”

The position is a massive shift for the former congressman and separates him from most of the Republican Party and even many Democrats. Rogers’ campaign did not immediately respond to POLITICO’s requests for comment or clarification.

Rogers’ opponent, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, has called for strict new standards to prevent data center impacts on the electric grid, water and local communities, but has not called for a large-scale moratorium, as other progressives have.

Data centers have become a pivotal issue in numerous midterm campaign as voters grow increasingly weary of the facilities and blame them for electricity costs and other impacts. The Data Center Coalition has said the facilities alone are not to blame for higher utility rates.

Data centers are also defining another major Senate campaign this year — the Ohio contest between Republican Sen. Jon Husted and former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown, who has accused Husted of being too tight with data centers.

This week, the National Republican Senatorial Committee sent a memo to the technology sector warning that data centers are proving toxic in the midterms, especially in the fight between Husted and Brown.

On Capitol Hill, House lawmakers are moving forward with legislation called the Ratepayer Protection Act, H.R. 9340, to shield Americans from the impact of data centers. Husted is sponsoring the Senate companion, S. 5028.

In the past, Rogers has been generally supportive of the data center build-out. In a July interview with ABC affiliate WXYZ, he said there should be electric grid and environmental rules for data centers, but communities that want them should be able to allow their construction.

“If the people are willing to put up with one of these things in their community, they ought to have direct benefit,” he said. “I think that’s a better way to get the community involved in the decision.”

El-Sayed, who focused a large portion of his primary campaign against Rep. Haley Stevens, seemed skeptical of Rogers’ change. He responded to the news on X with an emoji with its eyebrow raised.

“People really effing hate data centers,” the Democrat said in one campaign event.

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) called for a state data center moratorium during her race for governor. She lost the primary.

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#Resistance Democrats are flopping in primaries

During President Donald Trump’s first term, they were resistance stars. During his second term, they couldn’t survive primaries.

Alexander Vindman’s Senate primary loss in Florida on Tuesday is the latest stumble for Democrats who rose to prominence during the impeachment trials and accountability protests of Trump’s first term. Vindman, a former National Security Council aide who testified during the 2019 House impeachment inquiry, made standing up to Trump and other forms of corruption a centerpiece of his campaign.

His national profile helped haul in big money, but that wasn’t enough to stave off an upset loss to democratic socialist Angie Nixon, whose win showed the shifting politics of the Democratic base.

“Vindman is a hero, but memories fade and the focus of most folks is on the cost of living,” said longtime Democratic strategist David Axelrod. “She made those issues her focus.”

Democratic voters clearly want fighters who will stand up to the president and the GOP. But the string of losses for resistance candidates from the first Trump term illustrates a new era for the restive Democratic base, where vocal opposition to the president through official channels and public remonstrations no longer guarantees success.

The political graveyard of Trump-resistance-fighter campaigns is growing by the week.

Two of the 2021 House impeachment managers, Reps. Diana DeGette (D-Colo.) and Eric Swalwell (D-Calif.), are among them: DeGette lost her reelection bid to a democratic socialist this summer, while Swalwell dropped out of the California gubernatorial primary after a string of sexual assault allegations. Rep. Dan Goldman (D-N.Y.), the lead majority counsel in the first Trump impeachment inquiry, was ousted in his primary. Harry Dunn, a Capitol Police officer honored for his heroics on Jan. 6, 2021, lost a House bid in Maryland — his second unsuccessful run.

Other Democrats who built their profiles on Trump resistance flopped as well.

Tom Steyer, a prominent financier of the Trump resistance movement, failed to advance in the California gubernatorial primary. Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi (D-Ill.), a member of the Oversight and Intelligence committees during the 2021 impeachment, fell short in his Senate bid. Reps. Shri Thanedar (D-Mich.) and Al Green (D-Texas), both of whom led impeachment pushes against Trump, were ousted by younger challengers. And George Conway, a longtime Trump critic and Lincoln Project co-founder, won just six percent of the vote in a House primary in New York City.

“‘#Resistance’ was a very Trump 1.0 mood, and now we are in a different moment of anger,” said Lanae Erickson, senior vice president at center-left think tank Third Way. “They’re mad about the war. They’re mad about costs. They’re mad about the establishment not having delivered anything for them.”

Not all the races were defined by Trump accountability politics. Swalwell dropped his bid after multiple sexual assault allegations, several incumbents lost to DSA challengers in closed primaries, and in Goldman’s case, the debate over Israel was a major factor.

A Democratic operative who worked on one of the resistance races, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said the throughline is that those candidates are “institutionalists” who argued the justice system was going to hold Trump accountable. But voters have lost faith in those institutions after he returned to office, and were sold by other candidates’ messaging that relied more on railing against those very systems.

“The prescription isn’t what they were looking for anymore,” the operative said.

If Democrats retake control of the House, they will have to confront their base’s appetite for holding Trump accountable. Republicans have long warned that Democrats will immediately move to impeach Trump should they regain a House majority in 2027, which Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) — the top Democrat on the House Oversight Committee — has signaled openness to.

But some Democrats are more careful. “There are certain sections of people that definitely want Democrats to prioritize impeachment of the president. There are also other segments of people that want Democrats to prioritize bringing down the cost of living,” said Rep. Julie Johnson (D-Texas), who lost a runoff in a newly gerrymandered district. “You can’t just focus on one thing at the exclusion of the other.”

These electoral results, along with a growing list of Trump-endorsed candidates who have lost their primaries, suggest Americans are ready to move past Trump, argued Mike Madrid, who co-founded (and later disaffiliated with) the anti-Trump GOP group Lincoln Project.

“People are just tired of him, broadly. They don’t want to deal with him and the fights and the exhaustion and the never-Trump model, but also the sycophantic MAGA support model either,” Madrid said, pointing to the string of Trump-endorsed candidates who lost primaries on Tuesday, from Florida to Wyoming. “It’s Trump fatigue.’”

Some candidates are taking note — and adjusting accordingly.

David Jolly, the Democratic gubernatorial nominee in Florida and a former GOP House member, left the Republican Party in 2018 over disagreements with Trump. He was an independent after that and a regular MSNBC talking-head criticizing the president. He registered as a Democrat more than a year ago, before launching his bid for governor.

Despite Trump’s role in his political evolution, Jolly hasn’t made Trump central to his race for governor. “I’m not running the race about Trump. I rarely talk about him. But I am going to tie Byron to Trump’s economy,” Jolly told POLITICO after winning the nomination on Tuesday night, referring to his Trump-endorsed opponent, GOP Rep. Byron Donalds.

Former Rep. Elaine Luria (D-Va.), who served on the House Jan. 6th Committee, is running for her old seat against Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-Va.). She said in a statement that she was “proud of the work I did in Congress to hold Donald Trump and his Administration accountable,” but quickly pivoted into an attack focused more on pocketbook issues.

Some of the candidates who lost primaries say their resistance bona fides did help — just not enough.

Dunn, the Capitol Police officer, earned the Presidential Citizens Medal from former President Joe Biden for his heroism on Jan. 6, 2021 and became well-known for his outspokenness about that day. He said that had little to do with his primary loss — although he acknowledged that Democratic voters’ top priority this cycle has shifted to affordability concerns.

“While name recognition got me to be a formidable challenger, it didn’t put me across the finish line,” said Dunn, who finished third in a crowded primary in Maryland’s 5th District. “I just think it’s too nuanced to just drill it down to ‘people just don’t care anymore.’” The Democratic nominee, Adrian Boafo, is “strongly about holding Donald Trump accountable,” Dunn added.

Goldman, similarly, lost to former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander, who often highlighted how he put his “body on the line” to push back against the administration’s immigration policies.

Steyer, the billionaire who ran for California governor, lost to Xavier Becerra — who campaigned hard on his court fights with the Trump administration as California’s attorney general, but also leaned into unrelated sections of his resume like his time as Biden’s health secretary.

Months before entering the race, Steyer reminded voters of the Need to Impeach campaign he once funded in an ad supporting last year’s Democratic gerrymander in California. But those credentials — which he later stressed on the campaign trail — were too dated and too intangible to push him over the top, according to his former campaign spokesperson Kevin Liao.

“Tom Steyer led an impeachment movement almost 10 years ago now, and I think it’s hard to expect the electorate to hold that long of a memory on anything that happened almost a decade ago,” he said.

Adam Wren, Kimberly Leonard, Riley Rogerson, Blake Jones and Madison Fernandez contributed reporting.

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Michael Cohen won’t say if he’ll use his Trump interview to seek a pardon

Michael Cohen and President Donald Trump have apparently patched up their differences in private. Now, they can do it in public.

The president is scheduled to do a phone interview Thursday with Cohen on the New York City radio show that Trump’s former lawyer and “fixer” began hosting last month.

Cohen said in an interview ahead of the broadcast that he and his former boss have met privately three times and reconciled since a bitter and very public falling out during the president’s first term.

“I suggest you listen to the show. You may find it extremely interesting,” he told POLITICO.

Cohen, who made a stunning conversion from pro-Trump bulldog to fierce critic, said he wasn’t sure if during the interview he and the president would discuss presidential clemency for the conviction that landed him a three-year prison sentence.

He isn’t sure he will even push for clemency from the president.

“We’ll see,” he said. “Will I make that request down the road? I don’t know. Maybe maybe not.”

That the president’s erstwhile attorney is even considering asking Trump for a pardon is somewhat remarkable.

Cohen was the star witness in New York prosecutors’ 2024 hush money case against Trump, which saw the then-candidate become the first ever former president to become a convicted felon when he was found guilty on 34 counts of falsifying business records to keep word of an affair with former porn star Stormy Daniels from public view.

Cohen, who testified that he lied and bullied for Trump during his years working for the Trump Organization, later turned on his former boss. He told POLITICO in an April 2024 interview, for example, that the Jan. 6 Capitol riot was “grotesque” and predicted “there will never be another election again in America” if he was reelected.

Cohen was sentenced to three years in prison in 2018 on charges related to hush money payments to help conceal his boss’ affair with a porn star.

He said he sent pardon applications to former President Joe Biden’s administration and the Trump White House but doesn’t consider clemency, which would enable him to recover his law license, critical to his life at this point.

“I’m turning 60 next week. What am I going to go start practicing law again?” he said. “What has the loss of my law license prevented me from actually doing? Though I do believe I’m deserving of it, that’s a whole nother story.”

Thursday’s interview will mark the culmination of a months-long effort by Cohen to get back in the president’s good graces. He told a New York radio station this summer that they had a text exchange that started their reconciliation.

Teasing the interview, Cohen said people will be “interested to hear two individuals that were friends for a decade and a half who have not publicly spoken in eight years” talk about their long shared past. “What could they talk about?” he said.

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The Freedom Caucus is having a brutal primary run

The hard-right Freedom Caucus is having a rough primary season.

Candidates with backing from the caucus and its allies flopped in primaries from Florida to Wyoming on Tuesday, adding to a string of recent losses for the group.

In Florida, Catalina Lauf lost in a House GOP primary to replace Freedom Caucus member and Florida Rep. Byron Donalds — despite backing from President Donald Trump as well as a late, small ad buy from the Freedom Caucus Fund and millions from other groups supporting her.

Hours later, more than a dozen Wyoming Freedom Caucus candidates in the state’s legislature lost to moderates. The group’s chair, Rachel Rodriguez-Williams, lost to a moderate in the secretary of state race, as did Freedom Caucus candidates for state superintendent and treasurer.

Those losses followed Rep. Andy Ogles’ (R-Tenn.) ouster earlier this month, Rep. Chip Roy’s (R-Texas) defeat in his run for Attorney General and Rep. Ralph Norman’s third-place primary finish in the race for South Carolina governor — all candidates who the Freedom Caucus Fund, the federal campaign apparatus of the House Freedom Caucus, spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to boost.

The State Freedom Caucus Network, which backed the Wyoming legislative candidates, is not officially affiliated with the House Freedom Caucus, but its website says its mission is “building on the success of the House Freedom Caucus” to bring the fiscally conservative principles of the group to statehouses nationwide.

While there have been some wins for Freedom Caucus members this cycle, the combined pattern suggests that the ultra-conservative group’s name and influence is waning with GOP voters, and it comes as the factions of the party battle for relevancy when Trump’s presidency ends.

“They became largely an island of misfit toys: problematic in their party, and not for reasons that are necessarily popular with the public,” said GOP strategist Matthew Bartlett, who served in Trump’s first administration. “So you’ve seen diminished influence, and you’ve seen them losing seats, losing stature.”

In Wyoming, Robert Short, a moderate Republican, defeated Rodriguez-Williams by campaigning on a slogan of “make the secretary of state’s office boring again.”

“What Wyomingites were not and still are not is extremists,” Short told POLITICO, arguing that by pushing an “extremist agenda” in the state, the local Freedom Caucus tried to “usher in a national-driven agenda that really does not have a home in Wyoming.
And I think the voters of Wyoming responded resoundingly last night in saying, ‘not up in here.’”

The Wyoming losses were especially notable given how conservative that state is. Just two years ago, Freedom Caucus-aligned members took control of the state legislature and the state and gave Trump the highest vote share of any state in the nation. Two years before that, the state’s GOP primary voters resoundingly ousted former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.), who defied Trump over his false claims that the 2020 election was stolen. It’s still one of only a handful of states where Trump’s approval rating is still positive. So for the Freedom Caucus to get thumped there is particularly notable.

Wyoming’s Freedom Caucus members struggled to pass its priorities and tried to axe broadly popular programs, from public media funding to dismantling the state’s economic development agency. In proposing those changes, the caucus often sparred with more traditional conservatives.

The caucus aimed to secure a supermajority through Tuesday’s primaries to ram its agenda through the legislature. Instead, voters resoundingly rejected them.

“It was a butt-whoopin,” said Wyoming GOP state Rep. Andrew Byron, who ran unopposed on Tuesday and is not a member of the Freedom Caucus. “It was a huge statement by the Wyoming voters that shows that if you’re not willing to govern and listen to your constituents, they react.”

Multiple Republicans in the state, including Byron, pointed to big spending from national outside groups backing the Freedom Caucus that made Wyomingites feel like out-of-staters were trying to influence their politics as reason for the sweeping losses.

“Wyoming people live in Wyoming because we like our way of life,” Byron said. “We’re not good at getting told what to do, and we really appreciate the Wild West out here.”

In a statement posted to social media, the Wyoming Freedom Caucus said it “IS NOT GOING ANYWHERE.”

“Last night’s results will not undo the policy wins we’ve delivered on behalf of the people,” the group wrote.

Their struggles are part of a broader pattern. The Freedom Caucus Fund has failed to elevate its candidates in four of the five races it spent in this year, spending a combined $1.5 million dollars to boost Lauf (who got just $30,000 in support from the group), Ogles, Norman, Roy and Nevada Republican David Flippo (who is the only candidate the group spent for and won).

After publication, a Freedom Caucus Fund spokesperson pointed POLITICO to its 29-2 win-loss record in congressional primary endorsements this cycle. Most of those were for incumbents in uncontested races where the group did not spend.

These candidates didn’t all lose for the same reasons. Ogles had been plagued by various scandals, was running in a newly redrawn district with a number of new voters unfamiliar to him, and had limited campaign resources. Roy was hammered for his past support of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and criticism of Trump in the 2024 presidential primary. Norman was running in a crowded field in which Trump was backing another candidate (and he is again in the South Carolina special Senate primary). For her part, Lauf struggled to break out in a crowded 10-way primary in a ruby red seat.

But observers say there’s often a common through-line: The candidates have been mired in controversy.

“In a day and age where candidates matter, they tend to create their own headaches,” Bartlett said. “Sometimes behavioral, sometimes ideological.”

Neither the Freedom Caucus Fund nor a spokesperson for Freedom Caucus Chair Andy Harris (R-Md.) responded to a request for comment on Wednesday before publication. Multiple Wyoming Freedom Caucus members who lost on Tuesday also did not return calls.

The only victory for the group where it spent money this cycle was in Nevada’s 2nd District, where it elevated Flippo in the race to replace retiring Rep. Mark Amodei (R-Nevada), who has declined to support Flippo in the general election for the deep-red seat. In other races where the campaign arm didn’t spend, Donalds and Reps. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) and Tom Tiffany (R-Wis.) cruised to their states’ GOP nominations for governor, and Rep. Barry Moore (R-Ala.) won the primary to succeed Sen. Tommy Tuberville in the upper chamber.

Some of those candidates, like Biggs and Tiffany, will face tough general election bids in battleground states — providing another test for the Freedom Caucus among a broader swath of voters.

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‘Woefully underprepared’: Graham critics seize on her foreign policy misstep

South Carolina Sen. Darline Graham has given opponents fresh ammunition to attack her on her biggest vulnerability: her inexperience.

She revealed a major blindspot in her understanding of a critical foreign policy issue, U.S.-Taiwan relations, during Tuesday’s debate for the Aug. 25 snap Senate primary runoff to replace her late brother Lindsey Graham. Her response spread like wildfire on social media, with critics saying it proves she is “unprepared” to take office.

Asked whether Taiwan and the South China Sea are relevant national security priorities, Graham responded: “I’m just going to be honest here … I’m not that informed on national security, so.” She added that “national security is not my thing, not my area of expertise, but I do support the military.”

It was a notable acknowledgement from a sitting senator, as tensions rise between China and Taiwan — and as the U.S. preoccupation with the Iran war calls into question how reliable a supporter it might be amid fears of a possible future invasion of Taiwan.

The gaffe exposed the exact weakness that her runoff opponent, GOP Rep. Ralph Norman, has been eager to highlight: the senator’s lack of tenure.

His allies immediately piled on.

Norman supporter and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley wrote in a post on X that foreign policy experience is “not something you inherit” — a swipe at Graham’s appointment to fulfill her brother’s current term. Ken Cuccinelli, a former Trump administration official, expressed support for Norman, writing that Graham has “worked hard to hide any firm positions, and here she is at least being honest.”

“It very much confirmed many of our suspicions that while she might be a very nice lady, she is woefully underprepared or unprepared to be one of the 100 U.S. Senators in the Senate,” state Rep. Jordan Pace, who is supporting Norman in the runoff, said in an interview.

Norman said in a statement that South Carolinians deserve a senator with “know-how” on foreign policy: “Whether it’s spy balloons flying overhead or buying up land near South Carolina military bases, China continues to prove that it is a threat to the United States.”

Graham’s campaign, asked to clarify her response on U.S.-Taiwanese relations and her critics’ attacks over her misstep, pointed toward comments she made in the spin room after the debate: “What’s important are the people of South Carolina. They’re worried about their pocketbooks more than they’re worried about the South China Sea, quite honestly.”

Graham’s answer is also raising eyebrows among some of her own allies, with less than a week before next Tuesday’s election. And it increases the pressure on President Donald Trump, who had championed Graham’s appointment in July, encouraged her to run for a full term and is even planning to rally with her on Friday to boost her election chances.

“[Darline] just doesn’t have the experience of executing, you have to be able to deliver a story about herself and right now her story is that she’s Lindsey Graham’s sister,” said a former Trump administration official, granted anonymity to speak openly about private conversations.

The White House is still backing Graham, this person said, because the president had a close relationship with the late senator but also sees her as a better alternative to Norman, who endorsed Haley over Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primary.

A second person familiar with the White House’s thinking, granted anonymity to speak candidly, said, “POTUS is still all in on the endorsement.”

The White House declined to comment on Trump’s support for Graham.

Still, the flub highlighted the danger for Trump, as he seeks to propel a political novice into a six-year term in the Senate and avoid yet another stain on his endorsement record. His high-profile rally for Graham in Myrtle Beach later this week is a particularly notable step in a year otherwise marked by a decrease in his explicit campaign travel.

Norman, for his part, said during the debate that Taiwan is a “definite ally” and that Trump is right to enable them to “defend themselves against China.” He declined to take a swipe at Graham over her comment in real time, but that hasn’t stopped his supporters from hammering the newcomer for the embarrassing misstep.

Graham’s stumble was a far cry from her late brother’s hawkish defenses of Taiwan, in which Lindsey Graham had openly criticized the expansionist aims of Chinese President Xi Jinping, called allies of China “dirtbags” and stressed the need to maintain the status quo between Beijing and Taipei to protect U.S. national security interests.

“Anyone running for a seat in Congress should be able to explain to the American people why Taiwan is important to American interests. Taiwan is a vibrant democracy of 23 million people and the source of over 90 percent of the world’s advanced semiconductors,” said Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the German Marshall Fund’s Indo-Pacific program. “A Chinese takeover by force would shatter U.S. credibility with its allies across the Indo-Pacific.”

American intelligence has long suggested that China’s People’s Liberation Army will be sufficiently capable of seizing the island starting in 2027.

Trump in June said he was open to speaking with Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te, despite China’s warnings against doing so, in what would be the first direct dialogue between American and Taiwanese leaders in decades.

But the U.S.’ war with Iran is casting doubt on how effective an ally the Trump administration will be if China does invade Taiwan. Extended naval deployments to support airstrikes against Iran and a corresponding blockade of its ports have left the U.S. without a deployed aircraft carrier in the Indo-Pacific, as the USS George Washington steams toward the Middle East to relieve the extended Abraham Lincoln carrier, for instance.

The heightened risks and the rapid race to replace Lindsey Graham have left some in South Carolina’s GOP circles feeling less than optimistic about the choice they have to make to select a key proxy in Washington.

“It was shocking how we’re gonna give someone who was on stage last night six years in the U.S. Senate, and I think that’s the overall impression people are having today” said one South Carolina-based Republican operative who has stayed neutral in the Senate race and was granted anonymity to speak candidly. “One of these two is gonna get six years in the Senate? Like, big hanging question mark.”

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Trump tries to quiet his mass deportation campaign. Voters aren’t moving.

Republicans are struggling to reverse the damage President Donald Trump’s immigration agenda has done with voters.

With less than 90 days until the midterm election, the Trump administration has sought to keep Immigration and Customs Enforcement officials out of the headlines, pulling back on the high-profile, flashy raids in blue cities and minimizing public clashes with community members and protesters.

But new results from The POLITICO Poll show that half of Americans, including nearly a quarter of Trump’s 2024 voters, still say the president’s mass deportation campaign is too aggressive. That’s virtually unchanged from polling numbers in January and April, amid mounting political outrage over federal agents killing two U.S. citizens in Minneapolis.

Non-MAGA Trump voters are twice as likely as self-identified MAGA voters to say the president’s mass deportation campaign is too aggressive — 31 percent compared with 15 percent, according to the new poll, which was conducted Aug. 8 to Aug. 12.

The persistence of that negative voter sentiment underscores a vulnerability for Republicans heading into November, as the party grapples with its message and policy approach on an issue the GOP once dominated. Immigration was a reliable winner for Republicans, with the party rallying voters around border security and public safety. Now, they’re struggling not only to convince persuadable voters, but also hold together their own coalition as it splinters over deportations.

“Voters really did want border security, but they did not want to see abuelita taken away because she’s been here for 40 years but without documentation,” said Arizona-based GOP strategist Barrett Marson.

The poll, conducted by London-based polling firm Public First, found a notable share of Americans believe the administration has shifted how it is conducting deportations following the fatal shootings, but that has not been enough to reverse Americans’ views of the administration’s deportation strategy.

A 56 percent majority of Americans say there has been at least a small shift in the way the Trump administration has been conducting its deportation campaign. But a plurality of those respondents, 44 percent, say the shifts have made no difference in how much they trust the administration on immigration. Thirty percent say the shifts make them less willing to trust the administration on immigration.

Among the 71 percent of Trump voters who said they’ve observed at least a small shift from the administration, nearly half, 48 percent, say those shifts make “no difference” in how much they trust the administration on immigration. Nineteen percent said the shifts make them less likely to trust the administration, while 29 percent said they’d be more likely.

Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster in Washington, said that even with the lower-profile approach, the administration’s goal of increasing arrest and deportation numbers remains. That conflicts with what many voters broadly support: targeting immigrants in the country illegally who have committed crimes.

The lack of a change in voter sentiment is “not that surprising at all,” Ayres said. “It’s a lot easier just to go into an airport and find somebody who had overstayed a visa, had applied for an extension … and throw them into handcuffs and put them in a detention center. That’s the easy way to get the numbers up, and a great way to thoroughly antagonize public opinion.”

Another Republican strategist, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the landscape, said Trump “ran on border security, and he’s following through.”

“But the visuals of wins are unfortunately overshadowed by the visuals of chaos,” the strategist said. “There’s no question that the wall to wall coverage of the chaos that follows ICE makes voters squeamish.”

The White House pointed to polling from this spring that showed that 80 percent of Americans support deporting unauthorized immigrants who have committed crimes, as well as a Department of Homeland Security press release that highlighted arrests of immigrants who had been accused of sexual assault of a child, forcible sexual abuse and drug posession.

“Americans sent President Trump back to the White House with a clear mandate to deport criminal illegal aliens. Every single day the Trump Administration is delivering on his promise to the American people to remove murderers, pedophiles, rapists, and gang members from American communities,” said White House spokesperson Lauren Bis. “Americans are grateful to the President for removing these criminals from their neighborhoods and for Making America Safe Again.”

The GOP’s stronghold on immigration as a campaign issue eroded soon after the president’s return to the White House. Soon, robust enforcement efforts led to viral images of arrests inside courthouses, at airports and on neighborhood streets. The backlash brewed for months, and peaked this year amid the killings of Alex Pretti and Renée Good in Minnesota.

The White House moved quickly to contain the political fallout, sidelining then-Border Patrol commander Greg Bovino and deploying border czar Tom Homan to ease tensions. The administration has since sought to avoid controversy on immigration ahead of the midterms, emphasized criminal arrests and changed leadership at the Department of Homeland Security. Since Markwayne Mullin took the reins in March, he has reversed contentious policies, including a plan to turn massive warehouses into detention facilities.

Still, some Republicans are particularly worried that the hardline immigration stance was hurting the party with key voting blocs, such as young voters, moderate Republicans and Latino voters. The president won 46 percent of the Latino vote in 2024, the highest share of any GOP presidential candidate in modern history, but these voters have grown increasingly concerned with Trump’s deportations policy.

Democrats, meanwhile, are highlighting the Trump administration’s aggressive tactics on the trail, betting that more voters are repulsed than grateful for the increased presence of ICE and other federal agents in their communities. Minnesota Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, who won the Democratic primary for Senate last week, used her victory speech to rail against her opponent, GOP nominee Michele Tafoya.

“Michele Tafoya was all in with Trump when ICE was terrorizing our neighbors,” she said.

Republicans, for their part, are fractured over the path forward, as immigration hawks battle with wary moderates who are pushing for a targeted focus on criminals.

Not only are non-MAGA voters more likely than MAGA voters to say Trump’s mass deportations campaign is too aggressive, there’s also a stark divide in how each faction supports the goals and implementation of his immigration agenda, The POLITICO Poll found. Nearly two-thirds of MAGA Trump voters — 64 percent — say they support both the goals and implementation of his deportations campaign, compared to just 35 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters.

The president’s MAGA supporters and immigration hardliners have argued that the administration is going soft on the president’s mass deportation vow, potentially turning off the far right base at a time when the party can’t risk a lull in turnout.

The split flared up last month when Mullin temporarily paused some ICE vehicle stops — a tactic the agency was using to increase arrest statistics — after two ICE-involved shootings during vehicle stops in Texas and Maine. While some Republicans welcomed Mullin’s response, the president’s MAGA supporters portrayed it as weak.

“We are being betrayed in real time,” conservative commentator Tomi Lahren said on X at the time. “If you want Trump voters to stay home in November, keep this up Markwayne and co.”

The president, after online pushback, reversed the DHS order.

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Florida rejects Democratic establishment — and even snubs Trump

TALLAHASSEE, Florida — Million-dollar fundraising advantages and even endorsements from President Donald Trump did little to sway Florida voters Tuesday as they rattled the state’s parties by opposing candidates backed by the establishment.

Newly minted Democratic socialist Angie Nixon scored a massive upset — and notched a win for progressives — by beating retired Lt. Col. Alex Vindman, who had a huge fundraising edge. And, in another major development, two candidates endorsed by Trump, scandal-plagued Rep. Cory Mills and former administration official Catalina Lauf, lost their bids for Congress.

Taken together, the results show Democratic and Republican voters in solidly red Florida are hungry for change amid dissatisfaction with the economy, an ongoing war in Iran and restlessness over the status quo.

“People are frustrated, frankly, with both parties,” said Florida’s Chief Financial Officer Blaise Ingoglia, who is a former legislator and chair of the Republican Party of Florida. “They’re frustrated with people not delivering. … They want people to deliver for Floridians. They want people to deliver for Americans.”

National Democrats scrutinized states throughout the country during the primary season, looking for every opportunity they could find to pick up seats and flip the upper chamber come November. The one thing they may not have been betting on: A progressive who sorely lagged in fundraising scoring an upset in Florida. But that’s just what they got with Nixon’s win.

A state lawmaker and Jacksonville community organizer who recently joined the Democratic Socialists of America — but notably did not have DSA’s endorsement — Nixon ended up handily winning with more than 55 percent of the vote, surprising the state as she’s now positioned to campaign against GOP Sen. Ashley Moody, the former state attorney general appointed to the Senate by Gov. Ron DeSantis to replace Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

On Tuesday night, Nixon told supporters who gathered to hear her victory speech in Jacksonville that her win sent “shockwaves” to the Washington establishment.

“And they better get ready,” Nixon said. “When we realize that we are each other, we are not each other’s enemies, and that we are all struggling.”

In the state Legislature, Nixon was an adversary of DeSantis and his fellow Republicans, as she notably opposed Florida’s rare mid-decade redistricting push by railing on the newly drawn maps on the House floor in a pink jumpsuit and shouting through a pink megaphone. Nixon campaigned on progressive policies like free childcare and freezing rent nationally, helping her score support from national progressives like Democratic Reps. Maxwell Frost of Florida, Ilhan Omar of Minnesota, Rashida Tlaib of Michigan and Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.

FILE - National Security Council aide Lt. Col. Alexander Vindman departs after testifying before the House Intelligence Committee on Capitol Hill in Washington, Nov. 19, 2019, during a public impeachment hearing of President Donald Trump's efforts to tie U.S. aid for Ukraine to investigations of his political opponents. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, File)

Vindman had a prominent profile as a National Security Council whistleblower who testified in Trump’s first impeachment trial and secured a massive fundraising advantage surpassing $20 million largely from small-dollar donors. Nixon, meanwhile, didn’t scratch $1 million. But being outgunned proved not to be a factor for Nixon.

State Rep. Anna Eskamani, a progressive Democrat from Orlando, said Nixon’s campaign centered around the needs of the working class, from affordability to health care. Those concerns generated enough momentum for Nixon’s campaign to overcome the millions of dollars spent by Vindman.

“It really just speaks to saying that money doesn’t determine everything,” Eskamani said. “They’re tired of health care not being affordable and one job not being enough.”

Some Florida Republicans celebrated Nixon’s victory, believing a progressive will be easier for the GOP to overcome in November.

“It was a wild night in Florida politics,” GOP Rep. Randy Fine said at the victory party for Rep. Byron Donalds after he won his own crowded primary. “I mean, the Nixon win is the greatest gift ever. She’s crazy and should be in jail for the stuff she pulled on the House floor.”

But Fernand Amandi, a Democratic strategist for both David Jolly, who won the Democratic primary for governor, said that Nixon’s win shows frustration with longtime GOP control in Florida.

“It tells me that Democrats are uniting behind a message that holds a Republican Party that has total control over Florida government for 30 years responsible for the cost-of-living crisis that Floridians from all walks of life are suffering through,” Amandi said. “It doesn’t matter which wing of the party — they are uniting behind the message.”

On the Republican side, Trump’s endorsement didn’t prove to be the deciding factor in two races. In Florida’s 19th District, Trump’s endorsed candidate, Lauf, a former adviser at the U.S. Department of Commerce during the president’s first term, lost to Jim Schwartzel, a media executive and owner of a conservative talk radio station, by about 7 points.

It was a crowded field, with several former congressmen, including former North Carolina Rep. Madison Cawthorn and New York Rep. Chris Collins also running.

Rep. Cory Mills (R-Fla.) holds a phone to his ear as he walks to a vote at the U.S. Capitol on April 15, 2026. (Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images)

In Florida’s 7th District, Mills fell short of his bid to hold on to his seat, even with the president’s early backing. Instead, former television anchor Ryan Elijah defeated him by about 12 percentage points.

Under investigation by the House and shunned by some of his GOP colleagues in Congress, pressure has been building on Mills for weeks and only intensified recently as Republicans like DeSantis and Rep. Anna Paulina Luna came out against him. Mills has remained adamant that he has done nothing wrong amid a long line of incidents — including a restraining order placed on him at the request of a former girlfriend — and had defied calls from other Republicans to step down from his central Florida congressional seat.

Mills hoped Trump’s endorsement would put him over the line with voters, but it wasn’t enough. Elijah, who outraised Mills and other GOP contenders, tried to make the case during the campaign that a Mills win would make the seat an easier target for Democrats.

During his victory speech Tuesday night, Elijah highlighted the support he got from rank-and-file House Republicans, particularly Rep. Mike Haridopolos, with whom he said he has had a long relationship. And he noted the risk those GOP members took in balking against a Trump-endorsed candidate.

“To have those leaders jump on board with us a couple weeks ago, against an incumbent and against a presidential endorsement, and they did that anyway.” Elijah said. “That is courage right there, and I applaud them for that.”

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Trump’s pick for Wyoming governor is the latest endorsee to lose primary

President Donald Trump just suffered another endorsement loss, this time in deep-red Wyoming.

Republican state Sen. Eric Barlow defeated Trump-backed Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder in the gubernatorial primary on Tuesday.

It’s another blow to Trump’s once-stellar primary endorsement record, which has shown vulnerabilities in recent weeks. Former MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell lost his primary for governor in Minnesota last week, as did a Trump-endorsed Michigan congressional candidate who fell to an opponent who had already dropped out. Two other Trump-backed candidates fell in Florida Tuesday: Rep. Cory Mills and House candidate Catalina Lauf.

Trump’s endorsement power has seemed to particularly wane in governor’s races. Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones, Iowa Rep. Randy Feenstra and South Carolina Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette all fell in their primaries this year despite the president’s support.

Barlow, a fourth generation Wyomingite rancher, centered his campaign on protecting public lands, funding public schools and expanding rural health care access. Degenfelder leaned heavily on her Trump endorsement, and her campaign as well as outside groups supporting her ran repeated attack ads casting Barlow as too liberal to lead the state.

But Barlow was able to overcome those attacks and Trump’s endorsement on Tuesday.

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Ossoff just went viral again. That was probably the point.

Some battleground candidates are going viral for shooting from the hip. Jon Ossoff is doing it from a carefully controlled script.

Ossoff drew attention Sunday for calling out a little-known aide to President Donald Trump by first name on a Midtown Atlanta rally stage. It was part of a larger prepared speech that hammered Trump over the war in Iran — and part of a larger strategy to raise his profile in a critical Senate race, all while some national Democrats openly question whether he will mount a 2028 presidential run.

“He doesn’t want to do the job. He wants to build his ballroom and travel with Natalie on their apparently defenseless flying palace, gifted by the Emir of Qatar,” Ossoff said, referencing Natalie Harp, the president’s executive assistant. The comment, though just a brief remark in a 30-minute speech, drew over 5 million views on X and swift backlash from Republicans — including the president himself, who shot back Monday calling Ossoff a “Pee Wee Herman lookalike.”

It was just the latest time footage from an Ossoff campaign speech went viral.

Ossoff’s campaign appearances are marked by pithy stump lines that are prone to catch fire online and aggressive jabs at Trump and his Republican opponent that appeal to Democrats’ desire for fighter candidates. But behind his bold persona on the trail is a senator who is hands-on in all aspects of his campaign, including messaging.

Democrats in Georgia and beyond who have worked with Ossoff or seen him behind-the-scenes say he is meticulous about how he communicates and the details of his campaign’s work.

“He’s very, very involved in almost anything that kind of has his name on it or comes out of him,” said Seth Clark, a Georgia Democrat who has worked with Ossoff on statewide legislative priorities.

Clark recalled working with Ossoff on a letter to the Department of Interior last Congress, and “when it came back, you could tell he’d gone through every word himself.” That cautiousness has become a common part of his approach to politics, one that has carried through to his 2026 reelection battle.

Georgia’s is one of the most consequential Senate races in the country, and a misstep could carry enormous consequences. Democrats must defend a state that Trump won by just over two percentage points in 2024 in their uphill battle to flip the Senate.

“There are no decisions that get made that he doesn’t sign off on,” said a Georgia Democratic operative close to the Ossoff campaign, who like others in this article was granted anonymity to speak candidly about their private interactions. “He’s very focused, very intentional, always on message but always on the right message. He doesn’t want complacency because this could slip away from us. He’s seen Georgia’s Democrats lose elections they should have won.”

Ossoff’s campaign declined to comment. In an interview with MS NOW on Monday evening, when asked why he chose to invoke the president’s aide Harp by name, Ossoff said that Trump has “mired” the country in a “geopolitical disaster” and “retreats into this bubble of West Wing aides who are his security blanket to make him feel good about himself.”

Public polling shows Ossoff ahead of his Republican opponent, Rep. Mike Collins. But his profile has extended far beyond Georgia, fueled in large part by the series of viral clips and moments — even if he and his allies privately and publicly insist his focus is strictly on winning reelection and has no White House ambitions.

“The moment the national political organization gets a whiff that Jon Ossoff is thinking about running for president is the moment that [the] Senate campaign falls from under him,” said a longtime Democratic strategist.

However: “That doesn’t take away from the fact that … national leaders, national supporters are paying close attention to a guy who should be ahead by, you know, by one point at the most in a state like Georgia.”

Ossoff, for his part, has repeatedly dismissed the idea that he is entertaining a 2028 presidential bid, and is instead focused on the Senate race before him.

Ossoff’s team has also placed nearly $20 million in digital fundraising ads, according to an AdImpact analysis, which have blanketed Georgia along with cities with sizable Democratic bases like New York City based on their likelihood to donate.

And while Ossoff’s viral moments can appear off-the-cuff, people who have worked with him describe a candidate who is anything but casual in his public presentation.

A national Democratic pollster who has worked with Ossoff on a prior campaign said his “team understands how to put him and clip him … but I also think that he’s the type of guy, from knowing him, who’s in control of his message.”

“His speeches are just really optimized for clipping,” said Michael Vainisi, a content strategist who has worked with a number of past Democratic presidents and senators. “Really any speech should be, because at the end of the day you’re talking about maximizing clippable sound bites. It’s almost what a cable news hit was, except now you can control a lot more of the scene and what you’re saying.”

National Democrats who have watched Ossoff’s recent rise say the combination of careful message control and ability to go viral has made him stand out at a moment when the party is looking for candidates who can break through.

“Democrats want to fight back, they want to stand for something, and they want to show that they can govern,” said a New York-based Democratic donor who is planning to attend an Ossoff fundraiser in the Hamptons this weekend. “And he embodies that.”

Alex Gangitano contributed to this report. 

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Class act: The working-class game binding London and Canberra

CANBERRA — When a new British prime minister speaks to their Australian counterpart for the first time, it’s a reset of Australia’s oldest and deepest relationship.

The agenda seems obvious: Intelligence sharing. Tariffs. Hot war and simmering conflict.

If the conversation turns to sport, cricket has often been the obvious choice.

But as Andy Burnham began his introductory calls to world leaders, he and Anthony Albanese got to rugby league.

On their July 23 leader-to-leader call, the two men talked animatedly about the sport they have each spent a lifetime inside.

Albanese told Burnham he would love to see the Kangaroos, the Australian national side, tour the United Kingdom soon.

“I used to love watching the old Kangaroo Tours to the U.K.,” Albanese told POLITICO, reminiscing about “Mal Meninga’s try at Old Trafford in the green and gold” in 1990, in Burnham’s home town of Manchester, one of “those small grounds where the fans are right there on the tiny dead ball lines.”

By the end of the call, according to Burnham’s office, he agreed to support Albanese’s team, the South Sydney Rabbitohs. “I’m happy to barrack for Prime Minister Burnham’s Leopards in return,” Albanese said.

It wasn’t just small talk.

The AUKUS military alliance requires London and Canberra to operate at a level of trust that treaties and memorandums can’t manufacture. Delivering nuclear-powered submarines to Australia to ward off Chinese aggression will take decades of shared industrial secrets, shipyard schedules and nuclear technology.

Personal chemistry between leaders is not a substitute for institutional machinery, but it is the lubricant.

Burnham and Albanese have a shared, unfakeable claim to a working-class sport at exactly the moment both left-wing leaders are trying to hold onto working-class voters in the face of a right-wing populist challenge.

Burnham told POLITICO that deep love of the sport is “one of the many reasons the friendship between our two countries runs as deep as it does.”

“In the North of England, rugby league is in our blood. It is played and watched week in, week out, rain or shine, and I know that is a feeling shared in communities right across Australia too,” he said.

The code of collective action

Burnham’s urgent political mission is to stem the flow of working-class voters who have switched from Labour to Nigel Farage’s hard-right Reform UK, in many post-industrial Northern towns of Lancashire and Yorkshire, and nearby Cumbria and Cheshire, where rugby league is played.

Reconnecting with these communities is critical for Burnham’s hopes of saving Labour from defeat at the next U.K. general election, which is not due until 2029 but could potentially come sooner.

And the culture of rugby league is one that aligns closely with Labour’s left-wing history and its mission in these very same parts of the country: The sport only exists because of a fight about money and class

In 1895, clubs in the north of England broke from Rugby Union over the refusal of the sport’s authorities to compensate players for wages lost to injury or time away from work.

Wealthy players didn’t need the support, while working-class players decided their only option was to quit, and set up a rival code that allowed them to receive a wage for their efforts.

Players in Australia — formed out of British colonies and still firmly in the British Empire — soon followed suit, and the split never healed. Neither did the class coding.

Union, which was devised in a historic, prestigious private school, remains a fixture of British and Australian fee-paying schools.

Australia’s opposition leader, Angus Taylor, a Rhodes Scholar and former McKinsey consultant, plays Rugby Union. Albanese, who grew up with a single mother in social housing, played league.

Burnham’s Northern assets

League “has a very particular culture,” said Tony Collins, emeritus professor of history at De Montfort University and the author of several books on the sport. It understands itself, he said, as working-class, democratic and inclusive — and reflexively anti-establishment.

That is a useful thing for a politician like Burnham to be fluent in. Their League connections present them, he said, as ordinary blokes voters could have a pint with. “It’s the man in the pub thing,” Collins said.

Burnham’s northern identity is one of the few assets his party has that Farage cannot replicate.

The British leader has decades of involvement in the sport, serving as honorary chair of Leigh Centurions (Now Leigh Leopards), a team dating back to 1895. In 2018 he served as president of Rugby Football League, the sport’s governing body, an appointment he described as “one of the greatest honors I’ve ever been given.”

Burnham’s advocacy for greater investment in community-driven sport mirrors Albanese’s passion.

“Rugby league is about community. It’s about local identity,” Albanese said, and those who see the sport, its teams and its players as commodities to be traded or cut “don’t understand the sense of belonging it fosters.”

The pair talk about rugby league in the way Labor leaders were once able to talk about their own parties: mass movements marked by their sense of tightly-knit community.

Albanese’s 118-year grudge

Named for hawkers who walked Sydney’s streets selling wild rabbits to those too poor to afford other meat, Albanese’s Rabbitohs were founded in 1908 by working men from the city’s factory belt.

The club went on to win 20 premierships between 1908 and 1971 — still a record — the year Albanese’s mother took her starry-eyed 8-year-old son to watch the sport’s Grand Final.

Albanese played the sport for practical reasons: he could reach the training ground at inner Sydney’s Redfern Oval by bus — his family could not afford a car.

His days ended after school as he climbed the Labor ranks, becoming one of its youngest officials and an MP from his early 30s. Then came Rupert Murdoch.

In 1996, the newly-elected Albanese rose in the House to condemn a Federal Court decision clearing the establishment of Super League, a breakaway Murdoch-funded competition.

Calling it a battle between the community history of the game and the “private domination of this game by an individual,” Albanese risked his political career in labeling Murdoch’s venture “un-Australian”.

Famous for brow-beating Labor politicians, Murdoch’s newspapers controlled more than 70 percent of Australian news print circulation and set the daily agenda.

While Super League eventually collapsed back into the non-profit National Rugby League, the Rabbitohs did not survive the wreckage. Administrators cut the club in 1999, seeking a leaner competition and clubs with bigger fan bases and deeper pockets.

Albanese used his office to cultivate a backlash that became the largest sustained sports protest in Australian history.

As a Rabbitohs board member, Albanese tabled motions in Parliament, helped organize rallies and joined nearly 100,000 people marching through Sydney demanding their team back.

“This debate goes to the very heart of the alienation which people are feeling about our society,” he told the House in Nov. 1999. He was in the Federal Court in 2001 when it ordered the Rabbitohs readmitted to the competition, finding their exclusion breached the Trade Practices Act.

Authenticity dividend

While many would find it hard to outdo life membership of their favorite team — an honor Albanese received in 2013 — he took his fandom a step further: marrying a Rabbitohs fan who shouted the club’s battle cry from the audience during a speech by Albanese.

A first date with pension fund executive Jodie Haydon followed just before Covid lockdowns, and the pair married in 2025.

Businessperson Peter Holmes à Court in 2006 bought a 75 percent stake in the Rabbitohs with actor Russell Crowe, with Albanese’s blessing. He argues the prime minister’s obsession is the rare kind voters detect as genuine.

“His love for the Rabbitohs is absolutely authentic,” Holmes à Court told POLITICO. Instead of seeing a politician looking for photo opportunities, with Albanese his team pride is “like an organ, another arm.”

Albanese’s fandom occasionally overwhelms his official role.

In March 2026 he joined an on-field invasion draped in club colors after the Rabbitohs’ Alex Johnston broke the NRL’s all-time try record, telling Nine Television “it was worth it to be part of history.” In July he told comedian podcaster Nikki Osborne that a Souths win is “always a good aphrodisiac.”

“Anti-snobbery is the new movement, right? You can’t be too woke, but you also can’t be too elite in a populist revolutionary world,” Holmes à Court said.

Albanese rallies to the defense of his sport at the dispatch box on the floor of Parliament, and promises to use his relationship with Burnham to “discuss getting more kids off screens and onto sporting fields in our two great countries.”

Burnham keeps it similarly practical: “Together we are delivering good jobs through our AUKUS programme, ensuring young people get a good start in life, and driving down the cost of living. I know as two progressive Labour leaders we have a close friendship ahead of us.”

Albanese won’t be getting his desired Kangaroos tour of the U.K. this year.

England’s team is headed Down Under instead, for the Rugby League World Cup, beginning Oct. 15.

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