Alex Palou didn’t finish first in Sunday’s INDYCAR race at Arlington. But he couldn’t help but praise winner Kyle Kirkwood for his clean racing in the Java House Grand Prix of Arlington, the series’ debut on the streets adjacent to the Dallas Cowboys’ AT&T Stadium. While Kirkwood took the checkered flag for his first win of the 2026 INDYCAR season, Palou finished second and Will Power finished third to complete the podium. All three drivers led the race for 16 laps. Midway through the 70-lap race on the 2.73-mile street course, Power took the lead and held on for about 10 laps, until he had to pit and Palou took control on Lap 46. But less than 10 laps later, Kirkwood started eyeing the lead. [INDYCAR RESULTS: Kyle Kirkwood Outlasts Alex Palou at Arlington] Kirkwood, driver of the No. 27 Andretti Global Honda, passed Palou in Turn 13, led the rest of the race and held on for a caution-plagued victory. And while Palou probably would have preferred a different finish, he lauded Kirkwood’s racing, particularly his “awesome pass” for the lead. “Hats off to him,” Palou said of Kirkwood during his INDYCAR on FOX post-race interview. “It was super clean, and it was pretty impressive.” Palou — who started second behind pole-winner Marcus Ericsson, Sunday’s fourth-place finisher — acknowledged he and his No. 10 Chip Ganassi Racing Honda just didn’t have the speed to catch Kirkwood on the final restart. At one point late in the race, Kirkwood had a nearly a six-second lead over Palou and everyone else, and with a late caution leading into a last-lap shootout, there was always a chance Palou could pass for the lead. But he said his car just didn’t have it Sunday at Arlington. “We’ll get them in a couple weeks,” Palou added, referencing INDYCAR’s next race, the Children’s of Alabama Indy Grand Prix on March 29 at 1 p.m. ET on FOX and FOX One.Latest Sports News from FOX Sports
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The bad news is, this is one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory, so we wouldn’t go betting the rent money on any of these picks.
Jessie Buckley attends “The Bride!” New York Premiere at Rose Theater, Jazz at Lincoln Center on March 03, 2026 in New York City. (Photo by Jamie McCarthy/Getty Images)
With that said, here are our best guesses for tonight’s biggest categories.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If there’s one acting category that seems close to settled, it’s this one.
Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet has been generating raves for months, and many awards experts believe she’s headed straight for the Dolby Theatre podium tonight.
The Academy loves emotionally devastating performances.
And Buckley delivered one of the year’s best.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
The Best Actor race has been described as “unpredictable” all season long, with Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio both looking like the favorites at various points.
But if momentum means anything in Hollywood, Michael B. Jordan appears to have it.
His performance in Sinners has been widely praised, and his upset win at the 2026 BAFTAs makes him the odds-on favorite in the category.
In fact, his win is starting to feel inevitable.
Michael B. Jordan attends the 2026 EE BAFTA Film Awards at The Royal Festival Hall on February 22, 2026. (Photo Credit: Dominic Lipinski/Getty Images)
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
If you had predicted a year ago that Teyana Taylor might end up holding an Oscar in 2026, some people probably would have raised an eyebrow.
Now? It seems not only plausible but downright probable.
Taylor’s performance in One Battle After Another has been widely praised throughout award season, with critics applauding the emotional depth she brought to the morally complex role of Perfidia Beverly Hills.
And while this category has been highly competitive, the momentum appears to be swinging in her direction at exactly the right moment.
Teyana Taylor attends the 83rd annual Golden Globe Awards at the Beverly Hilton hotel in Beverly Hills, California, on January 11, 2026. (Photo by Michael Tran / AFP via Getty Images)
The Academy loves a breakout performance.
And if the votes fall the way many observers expect, Taylor may be adding “Oscar winner” to her resume before the night is over.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
If there’s one thing the Academy has always loved, it’s a legendary actor delivering a performance that reminds everyone why he’s been famous for decades.
Enter Sean Penn.
Penn’s turn in One Battle After Another has been generating serious awards buzz for months now, and it feels like the kind of performance that Oscar voters simply can’t resist.
Yes, the category includes several strong contenders.
But Penn has the narrative advantage: a respected industry veteran, a high-profile film, and the sort of intense yet comedic performance that tends to play very well with Academy voters.
In other words?
Don’t be surprised if we see Penn walking onstage tonight with that familiar smirk … and yet another golden statue.
Sean Penn attends the “Daddio” premiere during the 2023 Toronto International Film Festival at TIFF Bell Lightbox on September 10, 2023 in Toronto, Ontario. (Photo by Frazer Harrison/Getty Images)
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
This is where things get interesting.
While Sinners might dominate several of the major categories, director Paul Thomas Anderson appears poised to take home Best Director for One Battle After Another.
And frankly, it would be a long-overdue moment.
Anderson has been nominated multiple times without winning — the kind of narrative that tends to motivate Academy voters.
Which means tonight might finally be his night.
Benicio del Toro, Chase Infiniti, Leonardo DiCaprio, Teyana Taylor and Sean Penn attend the “One Battle After Another” Premiere at Odeon Luxe Leicester Square on September 16, 2025 in London, England. (Photo by Joe Maher/Getty Images)
Best Picture:One Battle After Another
Usually, by this point in award season, the Best Picture race has a clear frontrunner. That’s not really the case this year.
One Battle After Another got out to an early lead, but with just hours remaining until the big announcement, many prognosticators now have Sinners pulling out an upset win.
Honestly, it could go either way. And while it’s unlikely, there’s even a possibility that the two favorites will split the vote and enable a dark horse like Hamnet to steal the night’s top prize.
This is the Oscars, which means anything could happen. And we’ve seen some wild upsets in recent years.
That said, Best Picture will likely go to either Sinners or OBAA, and both films are certainly deserving.
But given the Academy’s historic disdain for genre fare, we’re giving the slight edge to PTA’s madcap comic masterpiece.
Of course, it’s sure to be a big evening for Sinners, as well. Both films are poised to earn an armload of statuettes on the most unpredictable Oscar night we’ve seen in years.
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