Democratic Maine Senate nominee Graham Platner’s team quietly fielded a poll Tuesday gauging the strength of people who could replace him on the ballot, as pressure mounts for him to drop out of the race.
The flash poll, obtained by POLITICO, was conducted by Public Policy Polling and commissioned by Platner’s campaign, according to a person with knowledge of the survey who was granted anonymity to discuss it. It tested head-to-head matchups between Republican Sen. Susan Collins and Platner, along with five possible Democratic replacements for Platner, including former Maine state Senate President Troy Jackson and Secretary of State Shenna Bellows.
The poll was conducted one day after POLITICO reported that a woman who Platner dated said he forced her to have sex with him, which he has denied. The move comes after his campaign dramatically lost support and financial backing across the Democratic Party, and suggests that his campaign is weighing alternatives should he leave the race.
On Tuesday, Platner’s campaign also canceled all its planned fundraisers and took down online ads, further indicating that his candidacy is on the brink of collapse.
Additionally, Platner’s team contacted Maine Democratic Party officials to discuss the process for replacing the embattled candidate on the November ballot — a conversation that turned contentious.
Platner hasn’t appeared in public since the latest scandal erupted. He is expected to speak later Wednesday, though it’s not clear when and whether it will be to staff directly or public, and his campaign is surveying volunteers about next steps, according to one person familiar with the campaign’s internal conversations and a survey obtained by POLITICO.
Platner has denied the sexual assault allegation and said swiftly after the report published that he is “taking the time to reflect” on his candidacy. His campaign has canceled at least a half-dozen planned events that had been scheduled over the coming days, in addition to putting holds on its ads on Facebook and Instagram.
The Platner campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
As pressure builds on Platner to abandon his bid — more than three dozen Democratic senators have called on him to drop out of the race — thejockeying for his replacement has already begun.
Jackson, a former Platner ally, has already filed paperwork exploring a run, while a number of other unsuccessful gubernatorial candidates have signaled they are considering a bid.
The Tuesday poll of 785 Maine voters showed Platner trailing Collins 47 percent to 42 percent. Eleven percent said they were undecided. It also tested Jackson, Bellows, former Senate candidate Jordan Wood, former public health official Nirav Shah and Democratic Gov. Janet Mills — who ended her Senate bid before the primary — in head-to-head match-ups with Collins.
The flash poll was conducted over a 24-hour period, according to the person with knowledge of the survey, and it should be viewed as an early snapshot of the evolving race. The survey document did not list a margin of error.
Of the Democrats tested, Jackson performed the best, leading Collins 49 percent to 44 percent, with 7 percent of voters undecided. Bellows and Shah both essentially tied Collins at 47 percent and 45 percent, respectively. Mills, who has not weighed in publicly on the POLITICO report, trailed Collins 48 percent to 37 percent, while Wood trailed 47 percent to 38 percent. Fifteen percent were undecided in both the Wood and Mills matchups.
The poll included crosstabs examining each candidates’ strength among 2024 voter blocs. Platner performed the best among voters who did not vote in 2024 or voted for someone other than President Donald Trump or former Vice President Kamala Harris, followed by Jackson. Among this group, 40 percent supported Platner and 38 percent supported Jackson, compared with 33 percent for Bellows, 26 percent for Shah, 22 percent for Wood and 21 percent for Mills.
Under state law, if Platner were to withdraw from the race by 5 p.m. on Monday, the Maine Democratic Party would have to pick his replacement by July 27. Party officials have said they are committed to an “open, transparent and inclusive” process to select a nominee if Platner suspends his campaign, adding that “in no scenario is there a legal possibility for a nominee to be selected by an individual campaign.”
On Wednesday, campaign manager Ben Chin sent a text message to volunteers — obtained by POLITICO — accusing the state party of bringing in the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and cutting the Platner campaign out of the process. Platner’s team wants to ensure that an establishment-picked candidate does not take his place if he drops out, a person close to the candidate said Tuesday.
The state party quickly fired back.
“While the Platner campaign remains focused on distracting from the job of defeating Susan Collins in November with false accusations against us, the Maine Democratic Party remains hyper focused on developing a representative, transparent and inclusive process to select a new nominee when he chooses to withdraw from the race,” MDP Executive Director Devon Murphy-Anderson said in a Wednesday afternoon statement.
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