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The POLITICO Poll – Affordability

The POLITICO Poll, conducted by Public First, finds that Americans are struggling with affordability pressures that are squeezing everything from their everyday necessities to their biggest-ticket expenses.

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6 myths about rural America: How conventional wisdom gets it wrong

Dusk in downtown Lumberton, county seat in Robeson County, N.C., the most diverse rural county in America. AP Photo/David Goldman

Roughly 1 in 5 Americans live in rural areas – places the federal government defines based on small populations and low housing density.

Yet many people understand rural America through stereotypes. Media and political conversations often use words or terms such as “fading,” “white,” “farming,” “traditional” and “politically uniform” to describe rural communities.

In reality, rural communities are far more varied. Getting these facts right matters because public debates, policies and resources – including money for programs – often rely on these assumptions, and misunderstandings can leave real needs neglected.

We are rural demographers at Louisiana State University and Syracuse University who study the causes and consequences of well-being in rural America. Here we outline six myths about rural America – a few among many – highlighted in our recent book “Rural and Small-Town America: Context, Composition, and Complexities.”

Myth 1: Rural America is disappearing due to depopulation

Many people think rural America is emptying out. The story is more complicated. It’s true that from 2010 to 2020 most rural counties lost population. But about one-third grew, especially those near cities or those with lakes, mountains and other natural attractions. And there have been times, like in the 1970s and 1990s, when rural populations grew faster than cities – periods called “rural rebounds.

An important thing to know about rural population change is that the places defined as “rural” change over time. When a rural town grows enough, the U.S. Office of Management and Budget reclassifies it as “urban.” In other words, rural America isn’t disappearing – it’s changing and sometimes urbanizing.

Myth 2: Most rural Americans live on farms

Farming is still important in many rural places, but it’s no longer the way most rural Americans make a living. Today, roughly 6% of rural jobs are in agriculture. And most farm families also have members who work off-farm jobs, often for access to health insurance and retirement benefits.

A bigger source of employment in rural America is manufacturing. In fact, manufacturing plays a larger role as a share of jobs and earnings in rural areas than in cities. That also means that deindustrialization – steady job losses in manufacturing over the decades – has been especially painful in rural America. Unlike large cities with lots of employers, rural communities rely on just a few. When a rural plant or factory closes, the local impacts are often devastating.

The largest share of rural jobs today is in service-sector work, such as retail, food service, home health care and hospitality. These jobs often pay low wages, offer few benefits and have unstable hours, making it harder for many rural families to stay financially secure.

Myth 3: Only white people live in rural America

People often picture rural America as mostly white, but that’s not the full story. About 1 in 4 rural residents are nonwhite. Hispanic and Black people make up the largest shares, and Indigenous people have a greater portion of their population living in rural areas than any other racial group.

Rural America is also getting more racially and ethnically diverse every year. Young people are leading that change: About 1 in 3 rural children are nonwhite. The future of rural America is racially diverse, even if popular images don’t always show it.

Myth 4: Rural America is healthier than urban America

Many people imagine rural life as healthier than city life. But the opposite is true. People in rural areas die younger and at higher rates than people in cities. Scholars call this the “rural mortality penalty,” and it has been widening for years. The COVID-19 pandemic made the gap even larger due to higher death rates in rural communities.

This isn’t just because rural areas have more older people. Rural working-age people, ages 25 to 64, are dying younger than their urban peers, and the gap is growing. This trend is being driven by nearly all major causes of death. Rural residents have higher rates of early death from cancers, heart disease, COVID-19, motor vehicle crashes, suicide, alcohol misuse, diabetes, stroke and pregnancy-related complications.

Myth 5: Rural families are more traditional than urban families

Images of rural life often evoke households in which married couples are raising children in traditional family structures. Historically, rural children were more likely to live with married parents. But that’s no longer the case.

Today, rural children are less likely than urban children to live with married parents and are more likely to live with cohabiting unmarried parents or in the care of grandparents or other relatives. Partly as a result, rural child poverty rates are higher than urban rates, and many rural families rely on safety-net supports such as the food aid program SNAP. Rural families are diverse, and many are economically vulnerable.

Myth 6: A new ‘rural revolt’ gave Donald Trump his presidential victories

Many rural voters have supported Donald Trump, but this didn’t happen overnight.

For much of the 20th century, Democrats drew major support from rural areas due to the party’s alignment with the working class and 100 years of single-party rule in the South spanning Reconstruction to the civil rights era.

However, social class and regional flips in voting patterns have meant rural voters have been shifting toward Republicans for nearly 50 years. The last time rural and urban residents voted within 1 percentage point of each other was in 1976, when Georgia peanut farmer and former governor Jimmy Carter was elected.

The partisan gap between rural and urban voters averaged 3 percentage points in the 1980s and 1990s, before growing to 10 percentage points in the 2000s and 20 percentage points in recent cycles. So, Trump’s support in rural America was not a new “revolt” but part of a long-term trend.

And in 2024, the key geographic story wasn’t rural voters at all – it was the sharp drop in turnout in big cities. Both candidates got fewer urban votes than in 2020, with Kamala Harris capturing over 10 million fewer votes in major and medium-sized cities than Joe Biden had four years earlier.

The Conversation

Tim Slack has received funding from the NSF, USDA, NIH, U.S. Department of the Interior, U.S. Department of Energy, Louisiana Department of Energy and Natural Resources, and Gulf of Mexico Research Initiative.

Shannon M. Monnat receives funding from the National Institutes of Health and the Lerner Center for Public Health Promotion and Population Health at Syracuse University.

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Shapiro shreds Trump’s economy

Ahead of President Donald Trump’s remarks on the economy in a swing district in Northeastern Pennsylvania on Tuesday night, his self-grading of an “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus” on a key midterm issue is roiling the campaign trail.

Pennsylvania Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro said in an exclusive statement to POLITICO that Trump’s remark — delivered during his sitdown with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns for a special episode of “The Conversation” released this morning — is out of touch with reality.

“The President’s statement does not reflect the reality on the ground here in a community where many Pennsylvanians voted for him in the last election,” Shapiro said in the statement. “The record is clear: his policies have hurt the very communities that propelled him to the White House. Trump’s tariffs and economic policies have raised prices at the grocery store, shuttered markets for our farmers, hurt our manufacturers, and dramatically increased the cost of living for Pennsylvanians.”

During the interview with POLITICO, Trump was asked what grade he would give his economy, to which he responded: “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus.” That remark comes despite consistent polling, including a recent POLITICO Poll, that shows voters are feeling pinched. According to the most recent Consumer Price Index, prices rose 3 percent over the 12 months ending in September. Trump’s top advisers, meanwhile, are pitching his Pennsylvania trip as an attempt to reboot an affordability message that’s been hindered by his insistence that the economy is strong.

The president’s comments to POLITICO on the economy are already being turned into a cudgel against him heading into the midterms, as Shapiro’s response — and other Democrats — shows.

Illinois Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker, another potential 2028 candidate, joined Shapiro in dinging Trump for the comments. “Must be graded on a curve that excludes rent, groceries, and healthcare,” Pritzker wrote in a post on X.

“Bringing his alternative reality and talking points to our Commonwealth won’t bring down the cost of groceries or make life more affordable for working families,” Shapiro continued in the statement. “Instead of trying to put on a show, he should get to work with Democrats and Republicans to actually cut costs for hard working families — as we have done here in Pennsylvania.”

Steve Bannon, a MAGA stalwart and host of “The War Room” podcast, told POLITICO that he trusts in Trump’s ability to carry forward the message on affordability and cost-of-living issues.

“If you’re gonna go on the road, go on it, but he’s showing you that he’s the best person to sell his program,” Bannon said. “And if you don’t believe it’s an ‘A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus,’ then you’re not the right guy to sell it.”

Sen. Dave McCormick (R-Pa.) was asked during an appearance on Fox Business earlier on Tuesday whether he agreed with Trump’s grade of the economy — the specifics of which he steered clear from. “I think the starting point is we’re digging out of a huge hole that we’re in as a result of the Biden administration,” he said. “What the president is saying is we’ve done a remarkable amount over the last 12 months. The economy is better. … But there’s a lot more work to do. Working families that are still living paycheck to paycheck, they’re still feeling crunched — by health care, by energy costs.”

White House spokesperson Kush Desai told POLITICO that “much work remains” but that “putting an end to Joe Biden’s inflation and affordability crisis has been a Day One priority for President Trump” and ticked off accomplishments including “slashing costly regulations to securing historic drug pricing deals efforts that have cooled inflation and raised real wages.”

Stacy Garrity, the GOP gubernatorial candidate and Pennsylvania state treasurer — who was scheduled to attend Trump’s visit to Mount Pocono and has backed his tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act — didn’t specifically address Trump’s economic grade when asked if she agreed with the assessment. Matt Beynon, a spokesperson for Garrity, said she is “looking forward to joining President Trump” and that the “treasurer is looking forward to being a partner with” Trump and “not a courtroom opponent like Josh Shapiro.”

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Poll: Here’s what Americans’ affordability problems look like

Americans are struggling with affordability pressures that are squeezing everything from their everyday necessities to their biggest-ticket expenses.

Nearly half of Americans said they find groceries, utility bills, health care, housing and transportation difficult to afford, according to The POLITICO Poll conducted last month by Public First. The results paint a grim portrait of spending constraints: More than a quarter, 27 percent, said they have skipped a medical check-up because of costs within the last two years, and 23 percent said they have skipped a prescription dose for the same reason.

The strain is also reshaping how Americans spend their free time. More than a third — 37 percent — said they could not afford to attend a professional sports event with their family or friends, and almost half — 46 percent — said they could not pay for a vacation that involves air travel.

While President Donald Trump gave himself an “A-plus-plus-plus-plus-plus” grade on the economy during an exclusive interview with POLITICO’s Dasha Burns, the poll results underscore that voters’ financial anxieties have become deeply intertwined with their politics, shaping how they evaluate the White House’s response to rising costs.

Trump insists that “prices are all coming down,” as he told Burns, but the results pose a challenge for Trump and the Republican Party ahead of the 2026 midterms, with even some of the president’s own voters showing signs that their patience with high costs is wearing thin.

POLITICO reporters covering a variety of beats have spent the past few weeks poring over the poll results. We asked some of them to unpack the data for us and tell us what stood out most. Here’s what they said:

TARIFFS

The big observation: Trump has struggled to persuade even parts of his base to accept the idea that tariffs will pay off over time. A minority — 36 percent — of Trump voters said tariffs are hurting the economy now but will benefit the U.S. over time.

Even fewer said the strategy is already working: 22 percent of voters who cast their ballots for Trump in 2024 said tariffs are helping the U.S. economy both now and in the long term, according to the poll conducted in November.

What really stood out: Staunch supporters of the president were roughly twice as likely as other Republicans to believe tariffs are a net positive already, although large shares of both groups still said they view them as harmful. Even people who self-identify as MAGA Republicans were split on one of the president’s favorite tools: 27 percent of those MAGA voters said tariffs are boosting the economy both now and in the long term, while 21 percent of them said tariffs are damaging in both the short and long term.

What now? Tariffs represent more than an economic tool to the president, who argues the levies have helped him negotiate peace deals around the globe and nudged corporations to bring investment to American shores.

Trump has frequently urged Americans to be patient with his tariff strategy, much of which could be cut down by the Supreme Court in the coming months, but it remains a delicate political issue when a lot of voters may be more concerned about their everyday expenses rather than a broader global calculus.

– Ari Hawkins

COLLEGE COSTS

The big observation: The tuition is too damn high. Only a quarter of Americans think college is worth the money, regardless of party, The POLITICO Poll found. Overall, 62 percent of Americans said college isn’t worth it because it either costs too much or doesn’t provide enough benefits — a belief supported most by 18- to 24-year-olds and those aged 65 and up.

The income gap between Americans with college degrees and those with high school degrees widened over the last two decades. And recent research from the U.S. Census Bureau found the median income of households headed by someone with a bachelor’s degree or higher last year was more than double the median income of those with householders with a high school degree but no college.

What really stood out: Despite that economic divide, more than half of people surveyed who graduated from college supported the idea that higher education is either too expensive or not sufficiently useful.

What now? Both former President Joe Biden and Trump have tried to respond to this frustration, pitching efforts to boost technical education programs and federal support for professional degrees in lieu of 4-year universities.

The Trump administration has pressed universities to control their costs — attempting to tie those efforts to the schools’ access to federal funds — but also shed the student loan forgiveness programs Biden championed.

– Juan Perez Jr. 

FOOD PRICES

The big observation: Trump attributed his 2024 victory over Biden partly to his pledge to bring down the cost of everyday goods like eggs. But a year later, Americans are more worried about being able to afford groceries than the rising cost of housing or health care, according to The POLITICO Poll.

Half of those surveyed said they find it difficult to pay for food. And a majority, 55 percent, blame the Trump administration for the high prices — even as the White House emphasizes its focus on affordability and the economy ahead of the midterm.

What really stood out: As affordability increasingly becomes a political flashpoint, with Democrats eager to seize on GOP vulnerabilities, a meaningful share of Trump’s own voters — 22 percent — blame the president for the high grocery costs.

What now? Balancing those concerns with a president who has put tariffs on goods imported from all over the world is a challenge for Trump’s administration — and an issue Democrats are certain to keep prodding.

Rachel Shin

HOUSING

The big observation: Concerns about housing costs — which have represented a major share of inflation in recent years — eclipsed those for health care, utilities, commuting expenses and child care, The POLITICO Poll found.

Only grocery costs bested the issue across more than a dozen expenses when respondents were asked to identify the items they find “the most challenging” to afford. The high cost of housing is also coming through in other metrics: The median age of first-time homebuyers climbed to a record high of 40 this year, according to the National Association of Realtors.

What really stood out: The POLITICO Poll found that homebuying and rental costs were of particular concern for young and Hispanic adults, two constituencies whose support for Trump last year helped Republicans regain control of Washington. There’s also an interesting wrinkle among GOP voters. While only 10 percent of those who identified as MAGA Republicans believe the Trump administration is responsible for the housing costs they see as unfavorable (52 percent of them point to the Biden administration), that figure was three times higher for non-MAGA Republican respondents.

What now? Those surveyed spread the blame for high housing costs across the Trump and Biden administrations, state and local governments and private landlords. But it’s Republicans who have to protect their hold on Washington heading into the midterms while the president generally dismissed affordability this week as “a hoax that was started by Democrats.”

– Cassandra Dumay 

HEALTH CARE COSTS

The big observation: Nearly half of American adults find it difficult to afford health care, according to The POLITICO Poll. Health care ranked as the No. 3 cost concern for respondents.

Democrats are pushing to extend pandemic-era enhanced Affordable Care Act premium tax credits, which are set to expire at the end of the year. If they end, prices will skyrocket for many Americans who buy insurance through the Obamacare marketplace. Democrats, who have struggled since Trump’s victory to coalesce around a campaign message, are banking on health care costs and other affordability concerns being a winning issue for them in the midterms.

What really stood out: The divide between MAGA and non-MAGA. While 84 percent of people who identified as MAGA Republicans said they trusted the GOP to bring down the cost of health care for everyday Americans (7 percent of which actually trusted the Democratic Party more on this issue), 49 percent of non-MAGA Republicans felt the same way. And nearly a quarter — 24 percent — of the non-MAGA respondents put their faith in Democrats on this issue.

What now? While poll respondents overall said they were more likely to trust Democrats to bring down health care costs, the overall split may not be concerning to Republicans running for reelection: 42 percent favored Democrats on the issue, compared with 33 percent favoring Republicans. The question becomes whether the non-MAGA Republicans can be persuaded to break ranks, or undecided voters are wooed.

– Sophie Gardner 

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Florida’s new reporting system is shining a light on human trafficking in the Sunshine State

Human trafficking can be hard to track because it is a crime that hides in plain sight. Mireya Acierto/Photodisc via Getty Images

Most Americans imagine human trafficking as a violent kidnapping or a “stranger danger” crime – someone abducted from a parking lot or trapped in a shipping container brought in from another country.

In fact, trafficking rarely takes this form.

In most cases, traffickers spend months or even years building trust and creating emotional and economic bonds with their victims. They use a variety of coercion and control techniques such as emotional abuse, forced criminality, financial abuse, and physical and sexual abuse to entrap their victims.

Meanwhile, the perpetrators are making money off their victims’ unpaid labor, including unwanted sex work. Human trafficking is estimated to be a US$172 billion industry.

The story of Jeffrey Epstein is just one example of how traffickers use a combination of manipulation, economic dependency and coercion – rather than physical captivity – to entrap vulnerable people and slowly erode their autonomy. Many victims don’t even realize they’re being exploited due to the manipulations of their traffickers.

Epstein’s crimes have attracted the national spotlight due to the fame and power of his clientele. His case demonstrates the harsh reality that human trafficking is far more common and complex than most people imagine.

We are criminologists who research human trafficking. In 2020, we founded the University of South Florida’s Trafficking in Persons Risk to Resilience Lab, known as the TIP lab, to study human trafficking in the state of Florida.

We know that labor and sex trafficking hide in plain sight, embedded in ordinary settings such as hotels, restaurants, farms, massage businesses and private homes.

Most victims are trafficked by someone they know or trust – a family member, intimate partner or employer. Many continue to go to school or work while being exploited.

Misconceptions about what trafficking looks like have made it harder to see and harder to measure. The available data on this crime and its victims has long been fragmented, incomplete and inconsistent. Law enforcement, government organizations such as health departments, and nonprofits that provide advocacy and victim services collect information differently. The same case could be counted multiple times by different agencies, while other victims go entirely uncounted, making it nearly impossible to understand the true scope of trafficking and effectively fight it.

Florida steps up

To address this problem, Florida in 2023 passed Senate Bill 7064, a law requiring all state and local government agencies and nongovernmental organizations that receive federal or state funding to send their human trafficking data to the USF TIP lab.

We developed TIPSTR, Florida’s statewide repository for anonymous human trafficking data. This single, consistent database is the most comprehensive data resource on human trafficking in any state in the U.S.

Our team compiled anonymous data from more than 30 state agencies and nonprofit organizations, including the Florida Department of Children and Families, the Florida Department of Law Enforcement and the Crisis Center of Tampa Bay.

We also conducted a self-report survey in 2024 to learn more about trafficking victims living in Florida. The survey was administered by YouGov using a representative sample of 2,500 Florida residents. And we established BRIGHT – Bridging Resources and Information Gaps in Human Trafficking – which connects survivors directly with services such as housing, mental health counseling, transportation and more, helping them move from crisis to stability. Besides serving as a resource for trafficking victims, BRIGHT allows us to measure and track the availability of victim services relative to the need for them.

Since starting TIPSTR in 2023, we’ve been putting all of the data together to create a picture of the complexities, depth and breadth of trafficking, as well as the resources that address the problem, both statewide and in each of Florida’s 67 counties.

man carries a bucket of tomatoes on his shoulders
Florida’s agricultural industry attracts many migrant workers, who are vulnerable to being exploited.
Wayne Eastep/The Image Bank via Getty Images

Why Florida faces higher risk

Florida’s economy and geography create a mix of risk factors for trafficking that are distinct from most other states.

With its large tourism, agriculture, construction and entertainment industries, the state depends heavily on temporary and mobile workforces. Its international airports and seaports connect it to global markets. Large sporting events and other entertainment bring in visitors looking for “fun in the sun” from all over the U.S. and the world.

All of these features make Florida economically vibrant – but they also create vulnerabilities. Transient labor markets, seasonal employment and high migration make it easier for traffickers to exploit workers and harder for authorities to detect exploitation. Often, buyers travel into Florida as tourists with the idea that “what happens in Florida stays in Florida,” creating a market for sex trafficking.

What we’ve found so far

2024 was the first full year for which we collected data, and we published our findings in July 2025 in the 2024 TIPSTR Report. The report demonstrates both the scale of the problem and the importance of reliable data.

The report also analyzes Florida counties with populations above 500,000, evaluating each county’s risk, resilience and response capacity on a scale from low to high.

Our self-report survey found that an estimated 500,000 current Florida residents were exploited or trafficked at work, and an estimated 200,000 were trafficked for sex. Minors made up half of those trafficked for sex and a quarter of those exploited at work. Although many of these survivors were exploited outside of Florida, these people need services locally to help get their lives on track.

Of those reporting human trafficking, only 9% to 12% reported this crime to law enforcement, confirming our concerns that it remains largely hidden from view. This is why it’s critical that TIPSTR doesn’t solely rely on law enforcement data.

Our analysis of the available data revealed wide variation across Florida counties in both the level of risk and the robustness of response systems. Some regions show strong resilience due to coordinated task forces and survivor services, while others struggle with underreporting and limited resources.

Translating data into action

At the same time, there are encouraging signs. The TIPSTR data shows prosecutions are increasing, and coordination among law enforcement, service providers and community organizations has strengthened.

Going forward, we hope our analysis of the data collected by TIPSTR will help the reporting agencies find new ways to respond. And tracking trends can allow policymakers to measure the effectiveness of programs run by different groups.

In fact, this is already happening. One sheriff’s office shared with us that when it saw how many illicit massage businesses were in its county, it started investigating them. In another instance, a nonprofit told us it had used the report to show why it needs more funding to expand its programs.

Seeing where trafficking is most concentrated and where services are missing is already helping the Florida Legislative Working Group on Human Trafficking identify potential policy changes.

Law enforcement can now use TIPSTR’s cross-agency data to connect cases. Service providers can coordinate care across counties, reducing duplication and ensuring continuity for survivors.

We hope that the report will also be used to develop broader awareness campaigns and better victim identification practices.

The importance of a long-term database

The system we’ve created will allow us to track the data for years to come. From a research perspective, this is critical, because it means our team can assess whether new policies and prevention strategies are making a measurable impact over time.

As criminologists, we believe that what Florida has built through TIPSTR can serve as a model for other states. Data alone cannot end human trafficking, but without it, we are fighting a hidden problem we cannot fully see.

Read more stories from The Conversation about Florida.

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Shelly M. Wagers receives funding from National Institute of Justice and Mel Greene Foundation.

Joan A. Reid receives funding from National Institute of Justice and Mel Greene Foundation.

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Rahm Emanuel says U.S. should follow Australia’s youth social media ban

Rahm Emanuel, who is mulling a presidential run, is pushing for the United States to follow Australia’s lead in banning children under 16 from most social media.

Alarmed by the addictive nature of social media apps and the attendant health and safety risks for young users, Emanuel wants to amp up public pressure on American lawmakers to restrict access to some of the world’s most popular platforms.

In a bit of irony, the potential 2028 White House hopeful plans to issue his call to action Tuesday, as Australia’s ban takes effect, in a video he’ll post on his social media accounts, according to plans the Democrat shared first with POLITICO.

“We’ve got to make a choice when it comes to our adolescents: Who’s going to be a kind of moral guiding light? I put my thumb on the scale for adults over algorithms,” Emanuel said in an interview, accusing Big Tech of prioritizing profits over “protecting our adolescents.”

It’s the latest in a series of policy stances Emanuel is sharpening as the former ambassador, who worked for three Democratic presidents and was mayor of Chicago, calls out his party’s messaging from education to public safety ahead of a critical midterm election.

It also comes as Democrats are embracing social media influencers and encouraging political leaders and candidates to spend more time online to promote their messaging and reach younger voters.

But Emanuel sees those as separate issues — an electoral strategy targeted toward adults over 18 versus a public health problem affecting adolescents. He likened solving it to steps he took to curb youth smoking as mayor by raising the minimum age to buy tobacco products. And he suggested lawmakers should start with targeting three of the most popular apps among U.S. teens — TikTok, Instagram and Snapchat.

“We can’t lose another generation because of inaction or political gridlock,” he said.

Emanuel appears to be taking a tougher stance on youth access to social media than some of his would-be rivals for the Democratic nomination — and positioning himself against the Big Tech lobby that has fiercely opposed efforts to regulate who accesses their platforms by arguing it infringes upon free speech. As a candidate, he too received donations from tech giants, including Eric Schmidt and Sheryl Sandberg.

Asked about those contributions, he said his stance now shows his independence from those firms.

In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom signed bills this fall that require social media platforms to display health warning labels to minors and require apps to check kids’ ages. Both Newsom and his wife, Jennifer Siebel Newsom, have spoken out about social media’s impact on kids’ mental health.

Maryland Gov. Wes Moore signed a “Kids Code” last year that aims to limit data tech companies can collect from children, but is mired in a legal battle. Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker signed a law in 2023 that works to ensure children are compensated for appearing in online content.

Emanuel, asked if his proposed social-media ban would be key to his platform should he run for president, said “anything that allows us to keep focus on improving academic standards and protecting our children on a public-health basis is going to be a priority.”

Australia’s world-first social media ban is designed to restrict access to major social media platforms including Facebook, Instagram, X, Snapchat, TikTok and YouTube for children under 16. And it threatens to slap their parent companies with tens of millions of dollars in fines if they don’t take “reasonable steps” to prevent youngsters’ access. Tech firms had protested the measure as rushed and “short-sighted” and argued it “will not fulfill its promise to make kids safer online.” But they have already begun deactivating accounts.

There’s some support for a similar ban in the U.S. Nearly six in 10 voters in a Quinnipiac University poll conducted in late 2024 said they would like to see similar age restrictions, though support was lower among those ages 18 to 34. An August POLITICO-Citrin Center-Possibility Lab poll of registered California voters showed 45 percent support for banning social media for kids under 16.

A bipartisan group of senators — including Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who political insiders think is positioning himself for another White House run in 2028 and who has made kids’ online safety a centerpiece of his stint chairing the panel that oversees social media — introduced a bill earlier this year that would ban children under age 13 from social media. Emanuel said that legislation has “the right thrust.”

Another bipartisan group of senators has reintroduced a bill that would require social media firms to remove features that could have negative effects on youth mental health. The bill sailed through the Senate 91-3 last year but stalled in the House, and the two chambers remain at odds over the details.

Amid congressional gridlock, a patchwork of primarily red states have passed laws attempting to limit kids’ access to social media by requiring parental consent and imposing digital curfews. But those efforts have drawn resistance from industry groups representing tech giants like Meta, Alphabet and Snapchat and have been largely blocked by courts.

Still, a divided panel of appeals judges last month gave Florida the go-ahead to begin enforcing a law signed by one-time presidential aspirant, GOP Gov. Ron DeSantis, that bars children under age 14 from using many social media platforms and requires parental approval for those ages 14 and 15. DeSantis, who might mount another White House bid in 2028, has hailed the law as a way of keeping children safe from online predators.

Emanuel acknowledged the stiff legal challenges a sweeping social media ban could face. But he said there’s a potentially “winning argument” in casting the crackdowns as combating “a public health issue associated with technology” rather than the technology itself.

Tyler Katzenberger, Andrew Atterbury and Shia Kapos contributed to this report.

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Trump’s near-death redistricting push in Indiana appears to have a lifeline

Indiana Senate Republican leader Rodric Bray reiterated his opposition to redrawing the state’s congressional lines as his legislative body began to consider a new, state House-passed map Monday.

But he would not say whether his caucus had enough votes to pass the measure being pushed by President Donald Trump, as he aims to keep Republicans’ slim control over Congress next year. Recalcitrant Republicans in the Hoosier State have presented the president with one of the biggest political tests of his second term.

“We’ll all find out on Thursday,” Bray said. It was a notable change from his regular insistence the GOP-controlled Senate lacks the votes to pass a mid-cycle redistricting measure.

Bray also addressed threats of violence against many of his own members received after signaling they don’t support remapping the state ahead of next year’s midterm election.

“It’s unsettling for all of our members and people across the state to endure that,” he said of the dozen or so elected Indiana Republicans who have faced threats of pipe bombings, swattings and unsolicited deliveries of Domino’s pizza.

The Senate convened ahead of what is elected to be a final Thursday vote on the map the House passed last week. It would all but ensure GOP control over Indiana’s nine House seats, up from their current 7-2 advantage. Bray cautioned it’s possible the vote could slip to Friday.

As senators convened for a 13-minute session before adjourning for the day Monday, anti-redirecting protesters drowned out much of the proceedings with chants of “No means no” and “no cheaters.”

Trump’s aggressive remapping push, spearheaded in Texas, has withered in the face of state-level opposition elsewhere in the country.

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Jasmine Crockett announces Texas Senate bid

Texas Rep. Jasmine Crockett declared a U.S. Senate run on Monday, jolting an already contentious Democratic primary as the party banks on flipping the reliably red state in its push to retake control of Congress’ upper chamber.

Crockett, a two-term representative from Dallas, will challenge state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the Democratic Party. Despite polling suggesting an uphill battle, Democrats feel optimistic about winning statewide in Texas for the first time in decades by harnessing the same backlash to President Donald Trump that fueled their successful off-cycle elections last month. In 2018, the party caught a glimmer of hope when Beto O’Rourke came within 2 points of defeating Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in a blue wave.

Former Rep. Colin Allred, the first Democrat to get into the race, dropped out on Monday ahead of Crockett’s announcement, citing a desire to avoid a messy primary and the likelihood of a runoff that would be triggered if no candidate receives a majority of the first round of votes in the March 3 primary. It was Allred’s second attempt at a Senate run: He lost to Cruz in 2024 by more than 8 percentage points.

“For too long, Texas has elected Senators who have defended politics as usual and protected the status quo, while Texans have paid the price,” Crockett said on her campaign website. “We’ve had Senators who have pushed the American Dream further and further out of reach.”

“I’m running for the United States Senate because I believe Texas deserves a Senator who will be an independent voice for all 30 million Texans – not a rubber stamp or party line vote for Donald Trump.”

Ahead of the rally, Crockett released a 45-second video with audio of Trump calling her “the new star” of the Democratic party and a “very low IQ person.”

In recent weeks, Crockett publicly debated whether to jump in, saying she would only do so if polling showed she could win. She has said she believes she can expand the electorate in Texas, a formidable task given the state’s entrenched Republican politics and rightward shift in 2024, including in former Democratic strongholds along the border. She’ll kick off with an event Monday afternoon in Dallas.

Crockett will be able to draw on a national profile and strong fundraising network. As a House member in a solidly blue district, she raised more than $6.5 million as of the end of September, largely online from small-dollar donors, and had $4.6 million in her campaign account — funds that can immediately be used to propel her Senate run.

Crockett is known for going head to head against GOP rivals, and has attracted criticism for some of her comments, such as calling wheelchair-bound Texas Gov. Greg Abbott “hot wheels.” She also referred to GOP Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene as having a “bleach-blonde, bad-built, butch body” during a House Oversight Committee hearing.

Some Texas Democrats said they believe Crockett brings a shot of enthusiasm – and her assertiveness is what the Democratic electorate is clamoring for. “We need some out loud, bold progressives, and that’s what people like about her,” said Allison Campolo, chairwoman of the Tarrant County Democratic Party. “She doesn’t shy away from anything. She doesn’t run to the middle.”

Crockett has faced obstacles in the House, coming up short in a bid for a caucus leadership position and for Democrats’ top position on the Oversight Committee. Now her Senate bid is causing some musical chairs in the House, brought on by the Texas GOP’s new gerrymander. Her decision to run for Senate wards off one potentially tough member-on-member primary for her current seat, but Allred’s switch to vie for a recently redrawn House seat against Rep. Julie Johnson is forcing another messy primary in a safe blue district.

Republicans say Crockett’s combative reputation will disqualify her among moderate Texans. Sen. John Cornyn has been goading Crockett into the race, and his campaign believes she will be easily defeated in a general election. Cornyn told reporters Monday that he thinks Crockett wins the primary “but she’s the worst possible candidate they can have in Texas.”

But first Cornyn would have to survive a packed and bloody Republican primary. And his vulnerability among conservative primary voters who question his MAGA bonafides has Democrats frothing at the opportunity to flip the seat. He’s up against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, a far-right firebrand who’s often considered the frontrunner since launching his campaign in April. Rep. Wesley Hunt jumped into the race in October, essentially guaranteeing the early March primary will go to a runoff.

Democrats are staking their hopes of flipping Texas on a continued GOP split — and the possibility of Paxton, whom they view as a weaker candidate, advancing to the general election.

Crockett told the Dallas Morning News last week that she had called Allred and Talarico to discuss polling she had commissioned showing she could win the election. Talarico’s campaign said she never actually shared the survey when they spoke. Talarico has achieved fame for his liberal view of Christianity and involvement in a walkout staged by Texas state lawmakers over Republicans gerrymandering a congressional map at Trump’s request.

“Our movement is rooted in unity over division — so we welcome Congresswoman Crockett into this race,” Talarico said in a statement.

The biggest question facing Crockett is whether she’ll be able to translate her popularity in Dallas statewide, said Joel Montfort, a Texas-based Democratic strategist.

“I appreciate her scrappiness and abilities to go toe to toe with her detractors. She is quick witted and quite the firebrand,” he said. “Her key challenge will be getting the other urban and suburban voters in other cities to appreciate what she brings to the party.”

Jordain Carney contributed reporting.

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Colin Allred drops out of Texas Senate race

Former Texas Rep. Colin Allred ended his Senate run on Monday as challenger Jasmine Crockett prepares to announce her likely bid for the seat that has long eluded Democrats.

Allred instead declared his intention to run for Congress in Rep. Julie Johnson’s seat. A resident of Dallas, he was making his second attempt to unseat a Texas Republican in the Senate after losing to Sen. Ted Cruz in 2024.

Allred was facing the possibility of a crowded Democratic primary: He was already up against state Rep. James Talarico, a rising star within the Democratic Party. Allred lagged in fundraising behind Talarico, and Crockett – an outspoken member with a strong national profile – would also prove to be a formidable challenger.

Allred, in a statement, said he wanted to avoid a messy Senate primary and will instead run for Congress in the newly drawn 33rd Congressional District, which had its lines redrawn after the U.S. Supreme Court last week allowed Texas to use a new GOP-friendly map drawn this year. His switch comes on the final day candidates can file to run in Texas for the March primary.

A bruising primary is taking place on the Republican side: Incumbent Sen. John Cornyn, Attorney General Ken Paxton or Rep. Wesley Hunt are dueling for the GOP nomination.

“In the past few days, I’ve come to believe that a bruising Senate Democratic primary and runoff would prevent the Democratic Party from going into this critical election unified against the danger posed to our communities and our Constitution by Donald Trump and one of his Republican bootlikkers Paxton, Cornyn or Hunt,” he said in a statement. “That’s why I’ve made the difficult decision to end my campaign for the U.S. Senate.”

Democrats need to net four seats to regain control of the Senate — a tough task that they believe was made easier by their sweeping success around the country on Election Day last month.

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