Category: Politics

Republicans attempting to oust Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie in a bitter primary are deploying his opposition to the war in Iran.

The Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund on Thursday released an ad supporting Ed Gallrein, the candidate endorsed by President Donald Trump, that focuses on Massie’s opposition to the war.

“America is at war with a fanatical regime that seeks nuclear weapons. American hero Ed Gallrein stands with President Trump, our country and our military,” a narrator says in the 30-second spot.

“Thomas Massie, he stands with Iran and radical leftists in Congress,” the narrator says, “opposing Trump just like he did on the border and taxes.”

The ad appears to be among the first attempts of its kind to use the Iran war to support a candidate, a risky choice since polls show the high-risk operation is not popular with voters. Massie, who faces Gallrein in a May primary, is a top Trump target for a number of perceived sins — most notably because the outspoken Kentucky lawmaker successfully pushed with Democratic Rep. Ro Khanna of California for the release of the Epstein files.

Massie did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

The ad from the RJC Victory Fund dropped hours after the House rejected an effort led by the Kentucky lawmakerand Khanna to force the president to halt the attack.

Massie claimed a win, though, by saying “we put everyone on record” about a military operation that “could last months.”

Massie has been outspoken in his opposition to the attack on Iran, accusing Trump of forsaking his “America First” doctrine and challenging members of his own party to rein in the president’s ability to wage war without the approval of Congress.

As the RJC Victory Fund funneled millions of dollars into attacking him, Massie cast his race as “about whether the Global Military Industrial Complex and Israel’s government controls the United States” and began fundraising off his opposition.

Andrew Howard contributed to this report.

​Politics

Democrats celebrated Kristi Noem’s firing as the Homeland Security secretary on Thursday, while calling for more heads to roll among President Donald Trump’s more controversial aides and advisers.

“Kristi Noem will go down as the most shamelessly incompetent and cruel Homeland Security Secretary in U.S. history,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom wrote on X. “Firing her is not enough. NOEM, GREG BOVINO, and STEPHEN MILLER all must be held accountable for terrorizing and endangering the American people.”

Several other potential 2028 presidential candidates were quick to join the chorus applauding the move, seizing on the opportunity to push for further personnel changes at the highest levels of the Trump administration.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker also warned in a video posted to social media that Noem would still “be held accountable.”

“Hey, Kristi Noem, don’t let the door hit you on the way out,” he said. “Here’s your legacy: corruption and chaos, parents and children were teargassed. Moms and nurses, U.S. citizens, getting shot in the face. Now that you’re gone, don’t think you get to just walk away.”

Noem’s impending departure — Trump wrote Thursday on Truth Social that she’ll soon become the inaugural “Special Envoy for The Shield of the Americas” — brings to a close a tumultuous yearlong stint at the agency. Trump also announced that he intends to tap Sen. Markwayne Mullin (R-Okla.) to replace Noem atop the department.

Noem is the most senior administration official to depart thus far in Trump’s second term.

But Democrats were quick to signal they were not satisfied with her exit, swiftly calling for Trump to axe other Cabinet-level officials. Both House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Rep. Pete Aguilar (D-Calif.) urged Trump to fire embattled Attorney General Pam Bondi.

Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.), meanwhile, said Trump should cut loose Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. next. Maryland Gov. Wes Moore also celebrated Noem’s ouster.

Noem came under bipartisan fire for her alleged relationship with Trump ally Corey Lewandowski, which she denies, and for labeling two Minnesota protesters killed by federal law enforcement in January “domestic terrorists.”

The former South Dakota governor also faced questions about a $220 million DHS ad campaign, testifying during a Tuesday congressional hearing that Trump approved the spending — a claim he later denied in an interview with Reuters.

“Time and time again, Secretary Noem failed the American people and her duty to the Constitution,” Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) wrote on X. “This was particularly true in how she oversaw ICE. Her departure demonstrates that if you don’t uphold the most basic American values, the American public wants you gone.”

Several Democratic lawmakers also indicated that Noem’s departure does not change their demands surrounding funding for DHS and for reforms at Immigration and Customs Enforcement amid an ongoing partial government shutdown.

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer said Thursday that ICE faces deeper problems that cannot be addressed with a single personnel change.

“The problems at ICE transcend any one individual. … It goes beyond any one person,” he said Thursday. “You need to straighten out the whole agency. The rot there is deep.”

Republicans, meanwhile, largely fell in lockstep behind Mullin — who said Thursday he was “excited about the opportunity” — and he will likely face a smooth confirmation process. Some Republican lawmakers acknowledged that a leadership shakeup at DHS was overdue.

“It was time for a change,” Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) wrote in a social media post, while Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) said the decision was “good for the president and his legacy on border and deportation.”

Cheyanne M. Daniels contributed to this report.

​Politics

Black Democratic strategists, lawmakers and activists are frustrated that Texas Democrats rejected Jasmine Crockett as their Senate nominee Tuesday night — but they also saw it coming.

Following Crockett’s single-digit loss, they recounted a laundry list of why she fell to state Rep. James Talarico: Her campaign was unfocused; she had an insufficient campaign infrastructure to challenge Talarico, even though she earned the backing of former Vice President Kamala Harris. They also said her media strategy relied too heavily on social media rather than television ad buys — typically seen as critical in a sprawling state like Texas and its nearly two dozen media markets.

“People who don’t understand politics will be upset because Jasmine was their hero,” said Texas state Rep. Jolanda Jones, a Democrat. “But for people who understand politics, [Crockett] literally had no ground game.”

She added: “This L is on her.”

Taken together, Crockett’s campaign shortcomings doomed the upstart Senate bid of the two-term congressmember who entered the contest with broad name recognition and hopes of showcasing her firebrand personality and penchant for viral moments to help Texas Democrats end their nearly 40-year winless streak in Senate races.

Still, Black strategists and activists warn Crockett’s loss will have ripple effects.

They say the party rejected an established star in favor of an untested, white state lawmaker over style — the two candidates did not substantively disagree on policy — raising concerns that Black voters, especially women, will not turn out when the party needs them the most.

“A lot of Black women who work in the Democratic Party, vote for Democrats, organize for Democrats, have always had a sense of this,” said Houston-based political strategist and social media influencer Tayhlor Coleman. “It is a lot more apparent now: A lot of people in the Democratic Party want our labor, they do not want our leadership.”

A spokesperson for Crockett’s campaign pushed back on the criticism of her campaign, saying it came from “Monday morning quarterbacks.”

“This was the most expensive Democratic primary ever in Texas with the overwhelming majority of those dollars being spent on attacks against the Congresswoman,” former deputy campaign manager Karrol Rimal said in a text message Wednesday afternoon. “Despite being outspent, she held our own and excited an untapped base of support for Democrats with record numbers of first time primary voters. There was also the intentional voter suppression of voters in Dallas and Williamson counties. That can not be ignored.”

After Crockett conceded, she tweeted her support for Talarico, saying, “Democrats must rally around our nominees and win.”

Democrats for years have praised Black women as the “backbone of the party.” And Crockett, a former civil rights and criminal defense lawyer, rose to prominence in part by viral moments from House hearings. Just last month, she garnered praise from party insiders for her sharp criticism of Attorney General Pam Bondi during a House Judiciary hearing over the Justice Department’s handling of Jeffrey Epstein documents.

Heading into Tuesday’s primary election — the first of the 2026 midterm cycle — there was optimism Crockett could harness her star power to beat Talarico, a seminary student and former teacher who drew national attention when Texas Democrats fled the state to try to block a major redistricting effort.

Talarico also built his national name with a sitdown on the nation’s top podcast, “The Joe Rogan Experience” where the show’s host urged him to run for president — weeks before he officially launched his Senate bid, and later turned an online interview with the late night host Stephen Colbert into a fundraising boon.

Throughout the primary, Crockett faced constant questions about her viability and campaign decisions, including whether she hired enough staff. She also faced criticism that the get-out-the-vote efforts were virtually nonexistent.

“She ran a fucking terrible campaign that many will question if she’s running a campaign at all,” said one Black national Democratic operative granted anonymity to give a candid assessment of Crockett’s campaign.

Crockett staked much of her political campaign on her ability to connect with young voters and rebuked her party for trying to win Republicans instead of wooing hard-to-reach Democrats that have grown frustrated with the party. By contrast, Talarico was praised by many Democrats for the way he leaned into his seminarian background as a way to appeal to progressives, independents and disillusioned Republicans.

“In many ways, she has been and has felt like a woman on an island,” said Stefanie Brown James, co-founder of the Collective PAC, which works to elect Black candidates to local, state and federal offices.

“Even though she has substance, not everybody likes her style,” she added. “And I think that sometimes her style is one that is not appealing, especially to the old guard Democrats, whose fighting style is antiquated and outdated.”

State and national Democrats acknowledged Talarico built a strong campaign that shored up grassroots support and built a statewide infrastructure long before Crockett entered the primary in December, just months before voters began casting their ballots. He was able to raise money quickly, establish a field and digital plan and craft a message that cast him as a fighter and someone who would bring down high costs.

Some Democrats anticipate Talarico’s victory is going to ignite a fresh round of uncomfortable conversations among insiders about the importance race, gender and identity politics will play in Democratic political circles moving forward.

“The way that we have seen people rally around new, more untested white male candidates” is troubling, said Maya Rupert, a Democratic strategist who served as the campaign manager of Julian Castro’s 2020 presidential campaign.

While she is excited about Talarico’s nomination against what she called “a very weak Republican field,” Rupert said Crockett’s loss will continue to “sting” for months to come, especially with few opportunities beyond Texas for Black women candidates to win in statewide contests.

“There are a lot of people who see this and see a very qualified, very popular Black woman — that, once again — feels like people fail to appreciate the strength of,” Rupert adds. “And that is a very dangerous position for the party to be in.”

​Politics

President Donald Trump is signaling he will soon endorse someone in the Texas primary. Key Republican players are scrambling to make the case for incumbent John Cornyn — and hoping Trump acts fast.

“I hope it’s going to be soon,” Senate Majority Leader John Thune told reporters Wednesday, just hours after making his latest plea on Cornyn’s behalf to the president.

At stake is $100 million or more in Republican donor money that many in D.C. party circles believe could be burned in the 12-week runoff showdown with Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who finished closely behind Cornyn in Tuesday’s GOP primary.

Beyond the money that stands to be incinerated, party operatives fear the scorched-earth campaign will give a further leg up to Democratic candidate James Talarico, the state lawmaker who won his party’s primary outright Tuesday.

In a lengthy Truth Social post Wednesday, Trump spelled out that he was mindful of a costly internecine fight.

“I will be making my Endorsement soon,” he wrote, as he called on the candidate he doesn’t endorse to “DROP OUT OF THE RACE,” stressing that Republicans must “TOTALLY FOCUS” on beating the “Radical Left Opponent.”

Cornyn’s Senate colleagues delivered a succession of public and private entreaties to the president throughout the day Wednesday.

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) said in an exclusive interview for POLITICO’s “The Conversation” that Cornyn was “without a doubt the candidate to win in November.” The episode is set for publication Friday.

“There’s nothing more powerful than President Trump’s endorsement,” Britt added, speaking before she traveled to the White House for a roundtable event with Trump.

Multiple Republicans delivered a similar message directly to Trump, according to three people granted anonymity to describe the private conversations — sharing their concerns that a Senate seat that has been in GOP hands since 1961 could be at risk of flipping in November if the scandal-dogged Paxton is the top of the ticket.

Senate Republicans were told during their closed-door lunch Wednesday that Trump will soon endorse in the race, two attendees said, but not whom the president will back.

But there was a palpable sense of hope among some of Cornyn’s allies Wednesday, who believe that things are aligning in the incumbent’s favor as he appears on track to win a plurality in Tuesday’s voting.

As of Wednesday evening Cornyn led Paxton by about 25,000 votes with more than 95 percent of ballots counted, according to the Associated Press. That represented an overperformance, some Cornyn allies argued, given that several pre-election polls had him soundly trailing Paxton.

A Cornyn campaign aide said there is “new momentum” and “new support coming” after Tuesday’s results.

“The case got stronger because of last night — that’s undeniable,” the aide said about Trump endorsing Cornyn. “There certainly are lots of conversations happening, lots of people who are seeing the bigger picture.”

Arriving in the Senate Wednesday evening, Cornyn declined to answer questions about the possibility of an endorsement — or anything else — as his colleagues warmly welcomed him back to Washington.

“Big John,” said No. 2 Senate GOP leader John Barrasso of Wyoming, greeting Cornyn as he rushed into the Capitol after a flight from Texas.

Several former Trump campaign aides are now associated with Cornyn’s campaign and are thought to be lobbying on his behalf. But Trump has long been personally fond of Paxton, a MAGA firebrand who eagerly joined his effort to overturn the 2020 presidential contest that elected Joe Biden.

A Republican close to the Paxton campaign, granted anonymity to speak candidly before Trump sent his Truth Social message, said Trump “knows that the base despises Cornyn” and would not risk alienating them by endorsing the sitting senator.

“He knows Cornyn is a squish and RINO,” he said. “But he’s got to make a pragmatic decision. It just kind of depends on what folks are telling him.”

Hopes for a quick endorsement for Cornyn could be on hold as the final votes are counted and his lead over Paxton is confirmed.

“Any president would prefer to be positioned with the winning campaign,” said one GOP donor, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the endorsement dynamics.

The White House did not respond to requests for comment on when the president will endorse and which candidate.

Talarico clinching the nomination while two well-financed Republicans beat each other up is exactly the scenario Washington Republicans were hoping to avoid ahead of Tuesday’s election. Internal polling released earlier this month by the Senate GOP’s campaign arm showed Paxton would lose the general election to Talarico by 3 points while Cornyn could beat him by 3 points.

The Republican close to the Paxton campaign said the attorney general is well positioned to win a runoff given that the primary electorate tends to be more conservative — and that Talarico is more beatable than Washington Republicans believe, given his past comments on transgender rights and his liberal view of the Bible. The person said Paxton’s data modeling showed a Cornyn plurality “was a possibility.”

“I guess it’s fair to say he was a little bit stronger than expected, but again it wasn’t too far up from our data,” the person said.

Still, the strong showing gave Cornyn’s colleagues a prime opportunity to argue that it was time to bring the rivalry to an end.

“John Cornyn is the best bet to win the November election,” said Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), a close Trump ally known to have the president’s ear.

Barrasso added that he, too, would encourage Trump to back his Texas colleague, adding that it’s “critically important for John Cornyn to be the nominee.”

“We need to hold that seat which means we need to nominate someone who is going to win in November,” Barrasso added. “The person that will win in November is John Cornyn.”

Dasha Burns and Adam Wren contributed to this report.

​Politics

Latino voters flocked to Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Texas in droves, reversing a long-running erosion for the party ahead of this year’s pivotal midterms.

The numbers were dramatic: In five different rural majority-Latino counties, more votes were cast in Tuesday’s Democratic primary than for Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential election.

“These very Hispanic counties are amongst the swingiest in the country, and they’re really telling us something,” said Mike Madrid, an anti-Trump GOP strategist who wrote a book about Latino voters.

The results provide some much-needed hope for Democrats that they can compete not only in Texas as they have long dreamed, but in Latino districts across the country that could determine control of the House in November. Few groups of voters have vexed Democrats in recent cycles as much as Latino voters in the Rio Grande Valley.

On Tuesday, the party started to seem like it had a way back.

The turnout surge among Hispanic and Latino voters helped power state Rep. James Talarico’s Senate primary victory over Rep. Jasmine Crockett, setting him up for a general election that has ignited Democrats’ fever dream of finally flipping Texas. In counties that are majority-Latino, Talarico won by roughly 22 points, according to preliminary results, compared to a roughly 3-point margin of victory over Crockett in the rest of the state.

It’s the latest sign that Latino voters who helped President Donald Trump return to the White House are not inherently sticking with Republicans. Democratic candidates put up strong numbers in predominantly Latino areas in gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey last November, as well as a smattering of special elections, including a state senate race in Fort Worth just last month.

But the results are especially significant because South Texas had long been an early warning sign of Democrats’ problems with Latino voters. While Latino voters swung sharply towards Trump in 2024, the party had been losing ground in the Rio Grande Valley dating back several election cycles.

A number of Rio Grande valley counties swung away from Democrats in 2020, and kept swinging right in 2024: In Zapata County, for instance, where 94 percent of the population is Hispanic, Trump won just 33 percent of the vote in 2016, but took 53 percent in 2020 and 61 percent in 2024.

On Tuesday, it was among the five counties where more voters cast ballots in the Democratic primary than voted for Harris in 2024, along with Kenedy, Jim Hogg, Reeves and Dimmit. Talarico won 55 percent of the vote across those five counties.

Republicans leaned heavily into their recent gains with Latinos as they redrew congressional maps in their favor last year, with several majority-Latino districts among those they are hoping to flip.

But some of those flips now look a lot less certain. In the newly redrawn 35th Congressional District, which stretches from San Antonio to Austin and is majority Latino, Democrats’ four-way primary drew 7,500 more voters than Republicans’ three-way contest. Both primaries are headed to a runoff in the district that Trump won by 10 points in 2024.

Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Texas), whose district was also redrawn to be more friendly for Republicans and who faces a tough election in November even after he was pardoned by Trump in December, said Tuesday’s results were evidence that Republicans’ gains in Texas in 2024 were “not a political realignment.”

Latino voters are angry with Republicans, he said, over continued high prices and Trump’s tariffs, along with ongoing immigration enforcement that has gone beyond what voters are comfortable with.

“If ICE would have just stuck on deporting criminals, people would have been OK with that, they would have been supportive,” Cuellar said. “But the moment they started going into work sites and going after criminal records — down here in South Texas, everybody knows somebody who has been here for a while — so that has turned Hispanics against Republicans.”

Madrid, the GOP strategist, argues Latino voters have always been more of a swing group than many people recognized. With Trump in office and high prices persisting, that creates openings for Democrats, both in Texas and across the country.

“It began literally, with Liberation Day, with the tariffs,” said Madrid, the GOP strategist. “When Trump announced those, you could see Trump’s numbers dropping with Latinos precipitously.”

Democrats’ best-case scenario in Texas would mean Cuellar and Rep. Vicente Gonzalez (D-Texas) both hold their districts despite the effects of redistricting, with the party flipping the nearby 15th District, where Tejano singer Bobby Pulido won a primary to face Republican Rep. Monica De La Cruz, as well as the open 35th district. In that case, Republicans’ might pick up only one seat in the state despite their aggressive gerrymander.

And while national Democrats have not identified Texas as necessary to take back the Senate, there is still hope that Talarico could become the first Democrat to win statewide in Texas in more than three decades.

Talarico’s performance with Latino voters was notable not only because of his party’s recent struggles, but also because the last Democrat to come close in a Senate race in Texas — Beto O’Rourke in 2018 — faltered with Latino voters. O’Rourke lost dozens of predominantly Latino counties in the primary, and comparatively lower turnout among Latino voters in the general election hurt his bid to unseat Republican Sen. Ted Cruz, which he lost by less than three points. O’Rourke’s struggles in the region presaged what was to come for Democrats in the Rio Grande Valley.

Talarico has campaigned hard in the region.

“Talarico’s faith-based messaging probably resonated really well, especially in a community that is heavily driven by faith,” said Kendall Scudder, chair of the Texas Democratic Party.

Scudder described Tuesday’s result as a “good first step” in retreading inroads with the community ahead of November, but said the party had to “double down” on their efforts to engage. But local Democrats, scarred by recent elections, aren’t taking a victory lap.

“It’s not the party that’s driving people to the polls. It’s the horrendous behaviors of the man in the White House and his cronies. That’s what’s driving people to the polls,” said Sylvia Bruni, chair of South Texas’ Webb County Democratic Party.

Democrats, she acknowledged, have a “prime opportunity” to win back the community against a “backdrop of abuse that our people are experiencing full force.” But she said the party still hasn’t done enough to directly engage with voters in remote, expansive counties like hers, which includes Laredo.

“I’d be the first to say to my party, you would need to do a hell of a lot more for us,” she said.

How much ground Democrats can make up in Texas may also depend on who they are facing. In the Republican primary, Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) did a few points better in Latino areas than he did in the rest of the state, suggesting he might be the stronger general election candidate with Latino voters if he can survive a runoff against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. He’s run well in Latino areas of the state in the past.

“John Cornyn has been the senator for quite a while, and there’s a familiarity with South Texans,” said Daniel Garza, a Texas-based Republican strategist and president of the conservative Libre Initiative. “He’s like somebody who’s trusted, who has a lot of credibility, and who’s familiar, right? And so people are comfortable with him in that position. Paxton, not so much.”

​Politics

James Talarico’s charmed political journey has broken his way at almost every juncture of his career, from “The Joe Rogan Experience” invite as he was weighing a Senate bid last summer to his star turn in Texas’ quorum break to a fundraising windfall over a spiked Stephen Colbert interview in the primary’s homestretch.

But as he gave his not-quite-victory speech late Tuesday night, Talarico faced a more uncertain future than he had hoped. The Associated Press eventually called the election for him hours later, though voting problems in Rep. Jasmine Crockett’s home base of Dallas County delayed the result.

And suddenly, it looks like he could face a much tougher opponent than he’d banked on in the general election.

Talarico and Democrats had hoped for months that the preacher would get to face scandal-tarred Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, but Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas), a less objectionable general-election foil, outperformed expectations and fought him to a draw, forcing a runoff.

For the disciplined and studious Democrat who can commit scripture and prepared remarks to memory in a matter of minutes, and who is known by aides to linger over edits to social media posts and ads, the unknown outcome of the runoff is an unwelcome twist, the seemingly rare thing he cannot control.

Even with a 12-week head start on whomever voters select as his opponent in a brass-knuckled, dregs-scraping, cash-consuming GOP runoff, Talarico could still face a four-term incumbent with a long track record of big general-election wins.

Amid a legal dispute over voting precinct hours in Dallas County, Talarico did not quite declare victory in a short speech just after midnight local time, when he was leading the race but before The Associated Press called it.

“We are still waiting for an official call, but we are confident in this movement we’ve built together,” he said after lamenting what he called “voter suppression.”

“We are not just trying to win an election,” Talarico said at his rally in Austin. “We are trying to fundamentally change our politics, and it’s working.”

Earlier Tuesday, a district judge permitted the Dallas County Democratic Party to extend polling hours until 9 p.m. central, but the Texas Supreme Court granted Attorney General Ken Paxton’s request to set aside the votes of those people who were not in line by 7 p.m.

The polling problems are just the latest in a long history of voter suppression and voting rights battles in the state — ones that have particularly impacted Black and Hispanic voters. Crockett first gained national attention as a state representative battling against the Texas GOP’s move to pass a law that added new restrictions on voting, an issue once again in the spotlight as her Senate campaign came to a close.

In a statement earlier in the evening, Talarico’s campaign acknowledged that they were “deeply concerned about the reports of voters being turned away from the polls in Dallas and Williamson counties following the GOP’s implementation of precinct-specific voting locations for Election Day.”

Crockett initially told supporters Tuesday evening there was “a lot of confusion today,” citing Paxton’s move and the state Supreme Court’s decision. But on Wednesday morning, Crockett said in a statement she spoke with Talarico and conceded the race to him.

“This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee,” she said. “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.”

Talarico ran well in heavily white and Hispanic areas Tuesday, but has conceded he has work to do with Black voters if he’s going to win in November — an effort that could be complicated by the sour final note of voter confusion.

The final stretch of the contest pitted Talarico’s and Crockett’s supporters against each other in bitter feuds, often along racial lines, that played out on social media platforms like TikTok and X. Those debates focused on whether Democrats believed Crockett, a Black representative from Dallas, could be elected in a deep-red state — as well as over a claim made by a social media influencer that Talarico had described a former opponent as a “mediocre Black man,” comments he says were misconstrued.

Still, his strong performance against Crockett has jolted Democratic hopes of winning Texas for the first time in more than a generation, forging a wider than expected path to flipping the Senate — and out of the wilderness.

“I’d be very worried if I were the national Republican Party after tonight,” said Emily Cherniack, the founder and CEO of New Politics, and a longtime Talarico ally. “Strong turnout, especially among Latino voters, signals real dissatisfaction with Republicans in power. That’s a huge warning sign for November for them.”

Up until Tuesday, Senate Democrats had staked their chances of flipping the Republican-controlled Senate on just four states: North Carolina, Maine, Ohio and Alaska.

But now, some Democrats believe Talarico can cobble together a winning coalition in the most improbable of states — no Democrat has a Senate seat in Texas since 1988 — based on his class-focused message seeking to unite voters across parties.

“A perfect storm is lining up for Texas Democrats,” said Mark McKinnon, the former Texas media operative who started out advising Democrat Ann Richards on her gubernatorial campaigns before switching to Republican George W. Bush in 1997. “They have a nominee who can appeal to moderates and soft Republicans. Talarico could be Moses who leads the Lone Star Democrats out of the desert they’ve been in for 35 years.”

Public and private polls have mostly shown close races in either matchup; Talarico would start off with the edge over Paxton but trail Cornyn.

“It is still a massive mountain to climb, but this doesn’t hurt the effort,” one former staffer on Kamala Harris’ presidential campaign said of Talarico’s win.

Talarico has argued that he can beat either foe.

“I think both of them are extraordinarily weak,” Talarico said in an interview with POLITICO just days before Election Day. “Paxton and Cornyn, they’re different. Paxton was guilty of illegal corruption. That’s why my colleagues and I impeached him in the Texas House.

“But Cornyn is guilty of legalized corruption. He was the deciding vote on the Big, Ugly, Bill which kicked millions of Texas off their health care, took food out of the mouths of hungry Texas kids all to give tax breaks to his donors. Both of them are guilty of using their public offices to enrich their donors — Ken Paxton in an illegal way, but John Cornyn in a legal way. I look forward to prosecuting the case against either of them — whoever makes it out.”

Gregory Svirnovskiy contributed to this report.

​Politics

Sen. John Cornyn defied expectations in the Texas GOP primary on Tuesday. National Republicans believe his unexpectedly strong showing may be enough for President Donald Trump to endorse the embattled incumbent.

Trump has privately intimated that he will soon get involved in the Texas Senate race after rebuffing endorsement pleas from both candidates for months, according to a GOP strategist close to the White House who was granted anonymity to speak freely. For months, party leaders worried that Trump would back state Attorney General Ken Paxton, a longtime ally of the president, especially if he dominated in Tuesday’s primary.

Then came the results that had Cornyn neck-and-neck with Paxton. With that outcome, the strategist said, it would be “very surprising” if Trump backed Paxton.

The stakes are high for Republicans, who fear control of the Senate is hanging in the balance. The GOP hoped to avoid state Rep. James Talarico clinching the Democratic nomination because they see him as able to draw away moderate Republican voters.

Republicans “should take him seriously,” said another close Trump administration ally, granted anonymity to be candid. Talarico is a “big reason for Trump to get in for Cornyn and end this thing,” the ally said, especially to free up massive amounts of money that could be spent instead on competitive Senate races in Michigan and Georgia.

National Republicans estimated they would have to spend $200 million to protect Cornyn in the runoff. But the GOP strategist shrugged off the price tag. “Look, it will probably cost some money,” the person said. “It’s just money, we have a lot of it.”

Tuesday’s results were the best-case scenario for establishment Republicans, who worried Cornyn would finish far enough behind Paxton that it would be a slog for him — and a tough sell for a president who hates to back losers.

The Texas GOP Senate primary has become a referendum on the future of the Republican Party, testing the strength of the conservative grassroots against the establishment wing. While the MAGA base kept the four-term incumbent — who nearly became Senate majority leader — from getting a majority of the primary vote, the results show the old Republican establishment isn’t quite dead yet.

Cornyn’s narrow lead over Paxton was powered by even performances across the state.

Even in the most heavily Republican counties where Paxton might have expected to benefit from a MAGA base, the incumbent senator largely held his own: Across more than 110 mostly rural counties that Trump won by at least 50 points in 2024 and were reporting complete results as of early Wednesday morning, Paxton built up only the narrowest of leads, 44 percent to just shy of 40 percent for Cornyn.

Meanwhile, Cornyn strengthened his advantage in the more traditional white-collar suburbs, leading by double digits in Travis and Dallas counties as results continued to come in early Wednesday morning.

The senator, speaking to reporters on Election Night in Austin, said Republican voters’ choice is “crystal clear.”

“I refuse to allow a flawed, self-centered, and shameless candidate like Ken Paxton risk everything we’ve worked so hard to build over these many years,” he said. “There is simply too much at stake.”

Republicans are well aware that overall control of the Senate may be at risk. Cornyn’s allies warn that scandal-plagued Paxton turns off general election voters, especially if Talarico is their opponent.

During Paxton’s decade as attorney general, he faced an impeachment by the GOP-led Texas state House, ethics complaints, a federal securities fraud investigation and a recent divorce complete with allegations of infidelity.

Now Paxton is facing another 12 weeks going up against the wrath — and war chest — of the Washington establishment.

“John Cornyn spent around $100 million trying to buy this seat,” Paxton told his supporters at a watch party after the race was called. “We spent around $5 million… We prove something they’ll never understand in Washington: Texas is not for sale.”

One question is which candidate the voters who backed Rep. Wesley Hunt, who finished a distant third place, will support now — or whether they turn out at all for the May runoff.

Lone Star Liberty, a pro-Paxton super PAC, in a memo circulated ahead of Tuesday’s election, shrugged off threats that Cornyn would succeed in the runoff by continuing to hammer the attorney general on his litany of scandals, arguing they had nothing new to offer.

“Cornyn’s talk of ‘unleashing’ new attacks’ in the runoff is bluster,” the memo states. “The truth is that from day one, his forces fired every bullet they had. There are no new attacks left — only more of the same, at ever-greater cost and with ever-diminishing returns.”

Senate Republican operatives – who had entered the night expecting the race to head to a runoff, but unsure of how Cornyn would track against Paxton – were exultant as the incumbent maintained a narrow lead well into the night.

A Republican working on Senate campaigns, granted anonymity to speak freely, said Cornyn “proved to be formidable” on Tuesday — bolstering the establishment GOP argument that he is “the most electable” as the party braces for a battle against Talarico.

Talarico’s lead “reaffirms the need to have Cornyn as the nominee. Can’t risk this to Paxton,” the GOP operative close to the White House said.

Yet some Republicans conceded Cornyn has a tricky path to navigate. He’ll have to square off again with the conservative primary voters who make up Paxton’s base.

“Runoffs are extremely unpredictable, and head-to-head it could be anyone’s ballgame,” said Republican strategist Jeff Burton.

Dasha Burns, Lisa Kashinsky, Alec Hernandez, Jessica Piper and Erin Doherty contributed reporting

​Politics

State Rep. James Talarico won the Texas Senate Democratic primary, defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett and giving party leaders the candidate they had quietly seen as the stronger option to flip the ruby-red state.

The race was defined by questions of electability and simmering racial tensions, as Talarico and Crockett worked to reassemble the party’s fractured multiracial coalition. That carried over through Tuesday, with both candidates raising concerns that voters had been disenfranchised in Crockett’s home base of Dallas County, which includes a large number of Black voters.

The legal dispute over voting precincts in Dallas could cast a shadow over his victory. Crockett told her supporters not to expect a final call on election night. But on Wednesday morning, Crockett said in a statement she spoke with Talarico and conceded the race to him.

“This morning I called James and congratulated him on becoming the Senate nominee,” she said. “Texas is primed to turn blue and we must remain united because this is bigger than any one person. This is about the future of all 30 million Texans and getting America back on track.”

Talarico, a progressive Seminarian, took a big-tent approach to his campaign by appealing to voters from both parties and independents. He will face off against either Sen. John Cornyn or Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton, who is mounting a right wing challenge to the four-term incumbent.

Texas Democrats have failed to win statewide in three decades, but they believe they have a rare opening to flip the Senate seat in November, due to backlash to the Trump administration’s mass deportation efforts and handling of the economy — especially if Paxton emerges from the GOP runoff.

There has been scant nonpartisan public polling in the general election, but a recent memo from the National Republican Senatorial Committee shows Cornyn ahead of Talarico by three points, while Talarico would lead Paxton by three points.

Gregory Svirnovskiy contributed to this report.

​Politics

Rep. Dan Crenshaw (R-Texas) was ousted by a primary challenger who successfully cast the four-term incumbent as anti-Trump and capitalized on a redrawn district.

State Rep. Steve Toth — who had the backing of Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) — beat Crenshaw on Tuesday night, all but assuring his seat in Congress given the district’s safe-red bend.

Crenshaw was the only incumbent GOP representative in Texas without President Donald Trump’s support and had at times split with the president, including in his criticism of Trump’s refusal to accept his 2020 election loss.

And Toth, with Cruz’s help, focused his campaign on casting Crenshaw as insufficiently conservative for the district, which was redrawn in the GOP’s recent Texas redistricting push.

“You deserve an unwavering fighter, a Republican who walks the walk,” Cruz said in a recent ad for Toth.

​Politics