Category: Politics

Wes Moore knows why Democrats lost in 2024

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​Politics

DAYS THE BUDGET IS LATE: 48

WOULD HAVE IF HE COULD HAVE: Mayor Zohran Mamdani planned to appear in a video he released over the weekend to commemorate the displacement of Palestinians that occurred in connection with the State of Israel’s creation.

He only opted against being in the video — which drew backlash from local Jewish leaders — because he fell ill, he said this morning at a Bronx press event.

“I was intending to be there as part of it,” Mamdani told reporters. “However, I did fall sick, and we didn’t want to create any kind of complication for her.”

Mamdani was referring to Inea Bushnaq, a woman who lived in the British Mandate for Palestine as a child and was featured in the video released on the mayor’s official social media handles late Friday.

In the 4-minute video, Bushnaq, filmed in her home in New York City, recalls how she was nine when she and her family had to flee their home in East Jerusalem in 1948 during the “Nakba,” an Arabic word that translates into “catastrophe” and denotes the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians upon the establishment of Israel. “The Zionists were coming into Jerusalem,” Bushnaq says in the video.

Local Jewish leaders, including a member of Mamdani’s transition team, were outraged by the video, arguing it provided a one-sided, overly simplified account of the region’s history.

As noted by The Forward’s Jacob Kornbluh, many Jews around the world contend the displacement of Palestinians did not just occur at the hand of Israeli forces. Rather, they point to neighboring Arab states, including Egypt and Syria, which launched military attacks in response to the new Jewish state’s creation in the wake of the Holocaust.

At his press conference today, Mamdani was asked for a response to the criticism that his team’s video excluded critical context.

“I firmly believe that acknowledging any one people’s pain does not preclude you from the acknowledgement of another people’s,” he said. “When it comes to New Yorkers like Inea and so many others, not only has their pain never been acknowledged, but so often we have seen that even their identity is up for debate, and my message to each and every New Yorker is that this is a city for you and that we will continue to be proud of everyone who calls it home.”

His comments come as he’s set to host a reception commemorating Jewish American Heritage Month at Gracie Mansion tonight. The mayor’s release of the Nakba Day video has led some Jewish leaders to boycott the event. They include Mark Treyger, a former City Council member who now leads the Jewish Community Relations Council, and Rabbi Joseph Potasnik, the FDNY’s chief chaplain and the executive vice president of the New York Board of Rabbis.

Assemblymember Sam Berger, a Democrat who represents large Jewish communities in Queens, was still incensed by the video when asked about it this afternoon.

“The mayor has spent his career bending reality with his policies and his budget, so it’s no surprise he’s trying to bend history too,” he said in a statement to Playbook.

The decision by Mamdani to release the video on Nakba Day is part of his longstanding record of aligning himself with Palestinian rights and struggles.

As a candidate last year, Mamdani, the city’s first Muslim mayor, faced criticism for refusing to initially denounce the phrase “globalize the intifada,” which many see as a call to violence against Jewish people. As mayor, he has said he’s committed to combating all forms of hate, including antisemitism, while also continuing to accuse Israel of perpetrating a genocide against Palestinians in Gaza as part of the war launched in response to Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023 terror attack.

Gustavo Gordillo, the co-chair of the New York City Democratic Socialists of America, of which Mamdani is a member, celebrated the video, saying it’s consistent with the chapter’s “history of standing up for Palestinian solidarity.”

“Representing the historic struggle of the people of the city is part of the mayor’s job, and I think that’s what he was doing here,” Gordillo said. — Chris Sommerfeldt and Jason Beeferman 

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

BETH DAVIDSON VS. BETH DAVIDSON: Beth Davidson’s congressional campaign has made it crystal clear on her website she absolutely supports establishing term limits — but if you ask her in person you may get an answer that sounds completely different.

Davidson, who’s running in the Democratic primary to unseat Republican Rep. Mike Lawler, says on the “priorities” section of her campaign website that she wants to “enact term limits and stronger ethics rules, to keep career politicians and corrupt insiders in check.”

But at a candidate forum in Ossining earlier this month, when she and her Democratic rivals were asked whether they would “support term limits for U.S. representatives and senators,” Davidson responded, “I actually don’t.”

“Some districts have members that have served them a long time. Some we’re done with after two years. I think it has to be up to the voters,” Davidson explained.

When asked about the discrepancy, Davidson’s campaign said the language on her campaign website is consistent with her support for term limits in the U.S. Supreme Court.

“Beth has clear plans to take on corruption in DC, including enacting term limits for Supreme Court Justices, banning stock trading by Members of Congress, and ending Citizens United to keep special interests and corporations out of our elections,” her campaign manager Ellen McCormick told Playbook.

Davidson was the only major candidate at the forum who opposed term limits for members of Congress, with her opponents Cait Conley and Effie Phillips-Staley supporting the idea. — Jason Beeferman

From the Capitol

TRAIN DREAMS: Gov. Kathy Hochul this morning visited the state office building in Lower Manhattan where negotiators for the Metropolitan Transportation Authority’s Long Island Railroad and five striking unions are meeting. As of mid-afternoon, no deal to end the LIRR strike had been reached.

In a video posted on social media, the governor said the morning commute had gone “smoother than expected” and that she was fighting to “protect our taxpayers and our commuters from having to pay hundreds of dollars more.”

Outside, picketers — one of them wearing a t-shirt that said “Fuck You, Pay Me” — chanted slogans like, “New York is a union town, Janno Lieber shut it down.” Lieber is the head of the MTA.

Hochul has so far appeared to stake out a more pro-MTA position than Gov. Mario Cuomo did during the last LIRR strike in 1994, which was also a gubernatorial election year. To quickly end the strike, Cuomo — whose son Hochul succeeded as governor — brokered a deal that gave the unions what they wanted.

But Hochul also appears to be keeping her political distance while blaming President Donald Trump for the strike.

In 1994, The New York Times reported that Cuomo was “positively hyperactive in confronting” the strike by cancelling public appearances, including a ticker-tape parade for the New York Rangers who had just won the Stanley Cup. The Times said he’d also “placed round-the-clock telephone calls to the top negotiators, members of Congress, Long Island leaders and the aides he sent to the bargaining table.”

This time around, Hochul has never publicly mentioned the possibility of Congress intervening. Trying to go that route is a nightmare for labor-friendly Democrats: Railroad unions are still bitter about when President Joe Biden got Congress to head off a freight rail strike in 2022. There were crickets from Congress last year when a union of train engineers went on strike and idled New Jersey Transit trains.

Trump said Sunday that until a day after the LIRR strike had begun he’d “never even heard about it.” (The president in September and again in January issued executive orders to create three-member panels to investigate the dispute and issue reports — a standard move in any rail labor dispute.) On Sunday afternoon, federal mediators summoned both sides to negotiations at the MTA headquarters. Those lasted late into the night and resumed this morning.

Hochul’s argument is that the Trump administration last year released the unions from one part of the mediation process early, a maneuver that set up a series of cooling off periods that ended Saturday, when the strike began. The part of the process she’s referring to allows federal officials to indefinitely keep unions in mediation without the ability to strike as long as there’s a reasonable chance of a settlement. Some of those mediations lasted for years.

This time around, all five unions and the MTA participated in mediation sessions between March 2024 and July 2025 before they were released in August. — Ry Rivard

FROM CITY HALL

FOOD DESERT: Mamdani’s plan to open a city-owned grocery store next year in Hunts Point could be a boon for access to healthy food in the bodega-dominated South Bronx, where diabetes and obesity rates far exceed citywide averages.

Hundreds of bodegas are spread throughout four ZIP codes in the South Bronx, accounting for 35 percent of all food establishments in the area, according to a Health Department analysis released last month. While most of the bodegas offered fresh produce, a third of them sold no fresh vegetables besides onions and potatoes — and, overall, healthy meal and snack options were limited, the analysis found.

For every supermarket in the South Bronx, there are four fast food restaurants and six bodegas, the analysis found.

In Hunts Point, the average cost of a standard grocery basket — which includes staples like eggs, deli beef, tomatoes, lettuce, bread, potatoes, milk and bananas — was $39.20 last year, but up to half of those items were generally unavailable, according to the analysis.

“Making sure every New Yorker can buy fresh, affordable groceries in their own neighborhood is a key part of our affordability agenda,” Mamdani said in a statement Monday.

The Economic Development Corp. is preparing a request for proposals for private operators to manage the Hunts Point grocery store and an additional store in East Harlem, which was announced in April and is slated to open by 2029. — Maya Kaufman

IN OTHER NEWS

— FRONT AND CENTER: Puerto Rico has emerged as a key issue in the race to succeed Rep. Nydia Velázquez, as rival progressive camps clash over the district’s political future. (THE CITY)

— PRISON REFORM: Still awaiting appointments from Hochul to reach a quorum, New York’s Committee on Correction is unable to meet or vote, delaying jail reform implementations. (New York Focus)

— LUIGI TAKES A HIT: A Manhattan judge ruled that the gun and notebook seized from Luigi Mangione will be admissible at his upcoming murder trial, while excluding items obtained during an initial warrantless search. (The New York Times)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics

President Donald Trump keeps knocking out his political enemies in the GOP. On Saturday, Sen. Bill Cassidy was the latest to fall.

It’s a massive warning sign for any Republicans who’ve provoked the president’s wrath: Trump’s revenge campaign has already mobilized voters in both Indiana, where he successfully ousted several state GOP senators over redistricting, and Saturday night in Louisiana. Tuesday’s primaries in Georgia and Kentucky, where Rep. Thomas Massie is up for reelection and he’s picked sides in the open Senate race, will be another test. Now, the president is entering those races with the wind at his back. 

Cassidy’s distant third-place finish marks the end of his tenure in the Senate, one that was doomed by his vote to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6 insurrection five years ago.

That decision ostracized him from Louisiana’s rabidly conservative base and set up two strong primary challengers in Rep. Julia Letlow — the Trump-endorsed candidate — and MAGA-friendly state Treasurer John Fleming. Up until polls closed, Cassidy maintained that his massive war chest, his record in Congress and a high turnout of non-party voters would be enough to save him.

In the end, it was not.

“For a man with such a formidable intellect, his political strategy was breathtakingly dense,” said Lionel Rainey, a Louisiana GOP strategist, who is unaffiliated with any of the campaigns. “History will remember Bill Cassidy as the absolute smartest guy in the political morgue.”

Letlow, boosted by Trump’s support, advanced to a runoff with a significant lead over Fleming — evidence that his endorsement is still key for Republican voters and can boost a candidate who begins a race with relatively low name ID and fundraising power.

Trump on Saturday night declared online that Cassidy’s “disloyalty to the man who got him elected is now a part of legend, and it’s nice to see that his political career is OVER!”

As Cassidy took the stage in Baton Rouge to concede and thank his supporters, he appeared to repeatedly needle Trump in his remarks, possibly previewing a potentially adversarial role to the White House he will take on as a lame duck senator.

“Insults only bother me if they come from somebody of character and integrity, I find that people of character and integrity don’t spend their time attacking people on the internet,” he said at one point, after taking apparent digs at Trump for refusing to accept his 2020 loss was legitimate and declaring that “leaders should think through the consequences of their actions.”

Cassidy’s suddenly pointed criticism of the president following his loss suggests he could quickly turn into a headache for the White House. He has already blocked a handful of White House appointees, and still chairs the powerful Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee. Without the need to woo the president, he could follow the path of retiring Sen. Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) and refuse to fall in line on some key votes — an important factor in a fairly narrowly divided Senate.

Throughout the campaign, Cassidy tried to cast Letlow as insufficiently conservative, nicknaming her “Liberal Letlow” and hammering her for her past support of diversity initiatives in higher education. But those attacks did not stick.

Trump didn’t dip into his own MAGA Inc. coffers or appear on the campaign trail to elevate Letlow — but she still benefited from some of his allies. The Make America Healthy Again PAC pledged $1 million in support of her candidacy, angered by Cassidy’s skepticism of Robert F. Kennedy Jr. becoming the Health and Human Services secretary. Those frustrations grew when the senator blocked Casey Means’ nomination as U.S. Surgeon General, which the White House later pulled.

Cassidy’s attempt at self-preservation was also stymied by the rise of Fleming, a former Freedom Caucus member who claimed he was the most conservative candidate in the race. In the final hours, Fleming got a shoutout from Trump as well, who posted earlier Saturday that Cassidy must be “CLOBBERED” by “two great people!!!”.

Letlow’s first-place finish is a boon for Louisiana Gov. Jeff Landry, who aggressively campaigned for her with his endorsement, pressured big donors to get in line behind her and was behind Louisiana closing its primary system — a move that disadvantaged Cassidy, who has historically brought in some Democratic voters.

The runoff, scheduled for late June, sets up a new battle for the president’s base: Do they go with the Trump-chosen option in Letlow or the other MAGA candidate in Fleming, who previously worked as White House aide under Trump? Pre-runoff polls showed a close race between the two, though Letlow comfortably led Fleming in the first round. The extended primary is sure to be bruising.

As the polls closed on Saturday evening, Trump had already begun to expand his target map, singling out Rep. Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.) for campaigning on behalf of Massie, who is facing his own tough reelection fight in Kentucky against Trump-backed primary challenger Ed Gallrein. (Colorado’s filing deadline has already closed, so it’s unlikely that threat can be carried out this election.)

“Is anyone interested in running against Weak Minded Lauren Boebert in Colorado’s Fourth Congressional District?” he wrote on Truth Social. “Even though I long ago endorsed Boebert, if the right person came along, it would be my Honor to withdraw that Endorsement, and endorse a good and proper alternative.”

​Politics

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) just lost his seat — a key victory for President Donald Trump’s revenge tour this cycle.

Rep. Julia Letlow, the Trump-backed candidate, and state Treasurer John Fleming advanced to a runoff in the Louisiana GOP Senate primary on Saturday, with Cassidy finishing in third place.

It’s a remarkable result: Cassidy is the first previously elected senator of either party to lose in a primary since 2012. The two-term senator and chair of the powerful Senate Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions (HELP) Committee failed to even make the runoff, finishing with roughly a quarter of the vote.

Both Letlow and Fleming benefited from MAGA voters’ frustrations with Cassidy for his 2021 vote to convict Trump on impeachment charges related to the Jan. 6 insurrection, and for his skepticism of Trump’s decision to nominate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as Health and Human Services secretary.

The president, who has been itching to oust Cassidy, finally got his wish Saturday. The result follows Trump’s successful attempts to oust several GOP state senators in Indiana last month over redistricting clashes.

Letlow, a three-term representative from north Louisiana, jumped into the race with Trump’s endorsement, a huge boost in the deep-red state. Gov. Jeff Landry also endorsed her and worked behind the scenes to help her campaign, and the Make America Healthy Again PAC committed $1 million to supporting her.

Fleming, a former member of Congress and White House aide under Trump, drew deep grassroots support during his campaign and was able to cut into Letlow’s polling lead in the final days of the race.

The runoff will extend an already expensive battle for the GOP nomination to late June. Early polls suggest a tight race between Letlow and Fleming, though Letlow had a clear advantage in the first round of voting.

CLARIFICATION: This article has been revised to clarify that it was 2012 when the last previously elected senator lost a primary.

​Politics

MONTGOMERY, Ala. — Thousands of people rallied Saturday in the cradle of the modern Civil Rights Movement to mobilize a new voting rights era as conservative states dismantle congressional districts that helped secure Black political representation.

U.S. Sen. Cory Booker of New Jersey called Montgomery “sacred soil” in the fight for civil rights.

“if we in our generation do not now do our duty, we will lose the gains and the rights and the liberties that our ancestors afforded us,” Booker said.

The crowd was led in chants of “we won’t go back” and “we fight.”

“We are not going down without a fight. We are not going down to Jim Crow maps,” said Shalela Dowdy, a plaintiff in the Alabama redistricting case.

A crowd of thousands gathered in front of the city’s historic Alabama Capitol, the place where the Confederacy was formed in 1861 and where the Rev. Martin Luther King, Jr. spoke in 1965 at the end of the Selma-to-Montgomery Voting Rights March. The stage, set in front of the Capitol, was flanked from behind by statues of Confederate President Jefferson Davis and civil rights icon Rosa Parks — dueling tributes erected nearly 90 years apart.

Speakers said the spot was once the temple of the confederacy and became holy ground of the civil rights movement.

Some in the crowd said the effort to redraw lines has echoes of the past.

“We lived through the ’60s. It takes you back. When you think that Alabama’s moving forward, it takes two steps back,” said Camellia A Hooks, 70, of Montgomery, Alabama.

The rally began in Selma, where a violent clash between law enforcement and voting rights activists in 1965 galvanized support for passage of the Voting Rights Act. It then moved to the state Capitol, where the Rev. Martin Luther King Jr. gave his “How Long, Not Long” speech that same year.

A recent U.S. Supreme Court ruling involving Louisiana hollowed out voting rights law that was already weakened by a separate decision in 2013 and then narrowed further over the years. That helped clear the way for stricter voter ID laws, registration restrictions, and limits on early voting and polling place changes, including in states that once needed federal preclearance before they could change voting laws because of their historical discrimination against Black voters.

Veterans of the Civil Rights Movement are alarmed by the speed of the rollbacks, noting that protections won through generations of sacrifice have been weakened in little more than a decade.

Kirk Carrington, 75, was a teen in 1965 when law enforcement officers attacked marchers in Selma on what became known as “Bloody Sunday.” A white man on a horse wielding a stick chased Carrington through the streets.

“It’s really just appalling to me and all the young people that marched during the ’60s, fought hard to get voting rights, equal rights and civil rights,” Carrington said. “It’s sad that it’s continuing after 60-plus-odd years that we are still fighting for the same thing we fought for back then.”

City will be affected by Supreme Court ruling

Montgomery is home to one of the congressional districts that is being altered in the wake of the Supreme Court ruling.

A federal court in 2023 redrew Alabama’s 2nd Congressional District after ruling that the state intentionally diluted the voting power of Black residents, who make up about 27% of its population. The court said there should be a district where Black people are a majority or near-majority and have an opportunity to elect their candidate of choice.

But the Supreme Court cleared the way for a different map that could let the GOP reclaim the seat. While the matter remains under litigation, the state plans special primaries Aug. 11 under the new map.

Democratic Rep. Shomari Figures, who won election in the district in 2024, said the dispute is not about him but rather people’s opportunity to have representation.

“When Republicans are literally turning back the clock on what representation, what the faces of representation, look like, what the opportunities, legitimate opportunities for representation look like across this country, then I think it starts to resonate with people in a little bit of a different way,” Figures said.

Alabama House Speaker Nathaniel Ledbetter, a Republican, said the Louisiana ruling provided an opportunity to revisit a map that was forced on the state by the federal court.

“People tend to forget what happened. When this thing went to court, the Republican Party had that seat, congressional seat two,” Ledbetter said last week. “There’s been a push through the courts to try to overtake some of these red state seats, and that’s certainly what happened in that one.”

Evan Milligan, the lead plaintiff in the Alabama redistricting case, said there is grief over the implosion of the Voting Rights Act but it is crucial that people recommit to the fight.

“We have to accept that this is the new reality, whether we like it or not,” Milligan said. “We don’t have to accept that this will be the reality for the next 10 years or two years or forever.”

​Politics

As Bill Cassidy fights for his political life, he’s refusing to acknowledge the political gravity surrounding him.

Five years after he cast a vote to convict President Donald Trump in his impeachment trial over Trump’s election denialism and the Jan. 6 Capitol riot, Cassidy is facing a challenge from Trump-backed Rep. Julia Letlow (R-La.) and GOP State Treasurer John Fleming in a crucial Louisiana primary today that marks the next stop on Trump’s revenge tour.

In an interview with POLITICO on Saturday, Cassidy sounded disconnected from the reality he faces, frequently referring only to Letlow as “my opponent” while ignoring Fleming, and complaining about the state’s shift to a closed party primary back in 2024.

If Trump’s push to oust Cassidy succeeds, it could unleash another rogue in the Senate with a vendetta against Trump and nothing left to lose.

But Cassidy claims he’s not thinking about that. Asked whether he would be a thorn in Trump’s side in his remaining months in office should he go down and join other YOLO Republicans, Cassidy sounded defiant.

“I’m going to win today,” Cassidy said. “I may go into a runoff. But I’m always going to vote for the good of my country and my people.”

If no candidate clears 50 percent in today’s vote, the top two candidates will advance to a June 27 runoff. Recent polls show a tight three-way campaign. Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Letlow and Fleming, another MAGA candidate.

Cassidy spoke with POLITICO by phone before he made his Election Day rounds after attending a wedding Friday evening. He talked of his plans to improve affordability and criticized Letlow for not voting for the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act.

“I don’t quite know why, but it takes courage, and so you got to know what’s right, and then you got to have the courage to do what’s right, and that’s what I have,” Cassidy said. “I’ve proven it. That’s what this race is about.”

But in the final hours before results roll in, the senator who drew Trump’s ire over his impeachment vote was the one crying foul over voting issues.

Cassidy echoed his concerns about Louisiana’s move to a closed primary system, telling Playbook he had just gotten off the phone with a “No Party” voter who tried to cast a ballot for him but said he could not. Cassidy said he’s communicating with Louisiana Secretary of State Nancy Landy, who he said is investigating. “We can’t comment on Senator Cassidy’s claim without specific details but, as with any claims of voter irregularities, we take them seriously, and would investigate any complaints made to our office,” a spokesperson for the secretary of state’s office said in a statement.

“Today, I’m trying to make sure that people are able to exercise their right to vote … in a system which, in effect, has been designed to prevent people from being able to cast their vote for me,” Cassidy said.

He brushed off MAHA’s role in the primary. “People in our state want someone who has delivered,” he said. “If you’re talking about ‘Making America Healthy Again,’ my gosh, I’ve worked to make my state healthy again. And so if people are concerned about our state being healthier, then I’m your candidate.”

And he expressed no regrets over his impeachment decision.

“That is not something I think about.” Cassidy said. “If my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now. If she wants to be wedded to the past, be wedded in the past, but by golly, you’re not working for the future. I’m working for the future, that’s where I’m focused.”

Despite Cassidy’s resoluteness, GOP sources in Louisiana see an increasingly bleak outlook for Cassidy — no matter where he finishes at the end of the day.

“There is almost a 0.0 percent chance that Bill Cassidy is coming back to the Senate,” said an unaligned GOP strategist with experience running races in Louisiana and granted anonymity to assess the state of play.

“He’s run a lot of ads,” the person said, “and the problem with his ads is he’s in them.”

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​Politics

The Republican Party is starting to splinter over support for Israel — and President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters are largely aligned with the embattled U.S. ally.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its relationship with the U.S. than those who don’t identify as MAGA but still voted for the president.

Nearly half of MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government, while just 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say the same, according to the survey. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza — compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say the country was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.

MAGA voters are moderately supportive of Israel, and the survey suggests they remain more willing to stick with the longtime U.S. ally even as divides inside the party deepen. The emerging fractures carry significant implications for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance and GOP efforts to keep together the coalition that powered Trump back to the White House in an unfavorable midterm election.

Politics around the Middle East have rapidly changed in recent years. Support for Israel has long divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats blaming the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza for costing them the White House in 2024. A 35 percent plurality of Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say Israel was initially justified in its actions in Gaza but has gone too far, while 27 percent say Israel’s military campaign in Gaza was never justified and 28 percent don’t know.

Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its conduct of the Gaza war. That figure underscores the near-total loss of support among Democrats for a military campaign that drew significant support from the Biden administration.

Republicans were powerfully unified in support of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. But amid the war with Iran and a growing unease about Trump’s foreign interventions, the country’s standing appears shaky among the non-MAGA wing of the GOP and among young conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to believe the Israeli government has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, the survey conducted by Public First found.

Some of those cracks have spilled into public view, with high-profile Republicans like Tucker Carlson, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon all criticizing America’s close relationship with Israel, especially as the war in Iran escalates. Most Republican members of Congress, as well as conservative influencers like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, have remained pro-Israel voices defending the president’s actions.

“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

The poll reflects that dynamic, with a notable share of Trump 2024 voters — 29 percent — saying that the president has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of domestic issues.

MAGA Trump voters are more tolerant of Trump’s global agenda, with just 19 percent complaining that he has spent too much time on international affairs. That figure doubles to 40 percent among non-MAGA Trump voters.

The Israel issue is a particularly urgent flash point within the GOP coalition, but POLITICO’s polling shows a consistent gap between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. That divide has shown up on views of Trump’s deportation campaign,the war in Iran and even his handling of economic concerns.

Generational divides on Israel

The POLITICO Poll finds sharp generational divides among Republicans on issues related to Israel, with the youngest Trump voters more likely than the oldest to express uneasiness over America’s relationship with Israel.

Thirty-two percent of Trump voters below 35 say the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, while 11 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel — even when the two nations face common threats — or work closely with the longtime ally to fend against common threats, the generational divide holds. Nearly half of Trump voters ages 18 to 34 say there should be distance between the two countries, while just 13 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

James Fishback, a far-right 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida who is highly critical of Israel and has gained traction among younger online “America First” voices, said the GOP is poised for a “massive reckoning” on the Middle Eastern nation, “the first of which we’re going to see this November, and in the primaries right before that.”

“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”

The generational divide in the GOP in many ways mirrors breaks within the Democratic Party, whose younger voters also hold stronger views against Israel’s influence and actions, driven in large part by the rising death toll and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.

“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”

The AIPAC factor

The involvement of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become a flashpoint on both sides of the aisle.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential advocacy group that aims to elect candidatesin both parties who strongly support Israel, has faced backlash for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also involved in Republican primaries, and some GOP voters are uneasy about its role.

But AIPAC is also playing on the Republican side — and the GOP is beginning to split over it. The survey finds that MAGA Trump voters are 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political interventions than their counterparts in the coalition, while non-MAGA Trump voters are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.

Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

AIPAC has bundled for several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are both at risk of losing their seats. The group, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has also poured millions into attempting to oust GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, in part for opposing aid to Israel and attempting to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran and elsewhere.

Even as AIPAC has become a dividing line among highly engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans have never heard of the organization or don’t know enough to share an opinion.

“Polls will go up and down,” said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”

AIPAC’s electoral arm, Dorton said, will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

​Politics

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is on the ropes.

The Republican is fighting for his political life as he fends off two primary challengers capitalizing on MAGA outrage over his 2021 impeachment vote against President Donald Trump. In Louisiana, there’s a growing belief that Cassidy wont be able to overcome strong headwinds to even nab a run-off spot in the primary election on Saturday, according to nearly a dozen interviews with GOP officials, lawmakers and strategists in the state.

Should Cassidy finish third and lose outright, it would mark a stunning defeat for the two-term incumbent and herald a significant win for Trump in his grudge match against Republicans who cross him.

“When it comes to stabbing Trump in the back with that vote to impeach, the memories are very long,” said Kevin Berken, the Jefferson Davis Parish GOP chair, who opposes Cassidy in the race and is leaning toward supporting Fleming.

Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, another MAGA candidate. Cassidy was ostracized by the state Republican Party following his impeachment vote. Trump has slammed him as “very disloyal,” urging Louisiana Republicans to vote him out.

The Louisiana GOP primary is the latest stop in Trump’s revenge tour this month, with a number of his biggest enemies fighting for reelection. It began in Indiana, where the president and his allies successfully ousted five state lawmakers as punishment for refusing to redraw congressional lines in favor of the GOP. After Cassidy’s race, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie is up next with his primary on May 19.

Still, in Louisiana, Trump hasn’t done much to boost his chosen candidate.

On Saturday, he reupped his support for Letlow, saying “she is a winner who will NEVER let you down” in a post on Truth Social. But beyond a few posts online, Trump has been largely silent, despite pushing her into the race in January with his endorsement. He continues to withhold his massive $300 million-plus MAGA Inc. war chest and did not make an appearance on her behalf during the campaign.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump, in his Saturday Truth Social post, took another swipe at Cassidy: “He turned around and voted to IMPEACH me for something that has now proven to be total ‘bullshit!'”

“That is not something I think about,” Cassidy told POLITICO in a brief interview Saturday. “That is a decision I made five years ago. What I think about is the present and the future of my state. If somebody wants to focus on that, if my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now.”

The Cassidy campaign has said it is well aware of the challenges confronting them, but they remain confident about the senator’s chances given his record in Congress. Cassidy campaign adviser Mark Harris said this week that their data shows the incumbent will likely not finish first but is in a good position to qualify for the run-off, thanks in part to a high number of non-party voters casting ballots in Louisiana’s closed primary.

“It’s sort of Julia’s to lose in the first round,” Harris said. “Our data indicates we have a very strong chance to put together a winning coalition, and then [win] in the run-off.”

But Cassidy’s history of frustrating MAGA goes beyond just the impeachment vote. He rankled the MAGA faithful — and the emerging Make America Healthy Again coalition — by sharply questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines during his Senate confirmation. He further angered the MAHA movement by helping block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means to be U.S. Surgeon General.

His actions have pushed the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC to pledge spending $1 million on Letlow’s behalf as they seek to oust Cassidy — though the influence of its spending remains to be seen.

“MAHA issues are in fact central to this race and to races all around the country, where in many cases they poll higher than most other issues for voters, especially for the all-important undecided voters,” MAHA PAC leader Tony Lyons previously told POLITICO in a text. “It’s true that Big Pharma and big food would like to convince voters otherwise, but Julia Letlow is a strong insurgent candidate and she will win.”

Nonpartisan polling shows Cassidy trailing both Fleming and Letlow, with an Emerson College Survey from late April putting him at 21 percent support, behind Fleming at 28 percent and Letlow at 27 percent.

“What we’ve known all along is now becoming clear to everyone watching this race: Julia Letlow has the support, the momentum, and the trust of Louisiana Republicans,” said Katherine Thordahl, Letlow campaign spokesperson, in a statement. “Unfortunately for Bill Cassidy, Louisianans have never forgotten Bill Cassidy’s vote to convict President Trump, which remains the defining contrast in this race.”

Cassidy’s path to a run-off isn’t completely closed.

He’s benefitting from the anti-Cassidy MAGA vote being split between Letlow and Fleming, who has summoned strong grassroots support throughout his campaign. Fleming has declared himself the most conservative candidate in the race, pointing to his record as a member of the House Freedom Caucus. He also served as a White House aide during Trump’s first administration as deputy chief of staff.

“Neither one of them can claim a stronger conservative voting record,” Fleming said in an interview. “Between them, I stand alone so I think that’s the real driver of my lead on this.”

Berken said in an interview he was leaning toward supporting Fleming due to his conservative credentials. “I know what I get with John Fleming, and even though President Trump endorsed Julia, I think he did that at Governor Landry’s behest,” he said, referring to GOP Gov. Jeff Landry’s campaign to elect Letlow to the Senate.

Letlow and Fleming have spent the final days of the campaign attacking each other, a sign that they expect to face each other in the run-off — or that they believe Cassidy may end up pulling off a surprising rise if they continue to split the MAGA vote.

Cassidy, meanwhile, continues to train all of his fire on Letlow in the home stretch. The senator has attempted to cast her as insufficiently conservative, nicknaming her “Liberal Letlow” and hammering her for past comments she made in support of diversity initiatives in higher education. Letlow has since disavowed those programs, arguing they have been hijacked by the left.

By going so hard against Letlow, “Cassidy’s committing murder suicide,” said one Louisiana GOP strategist who’s unaffiliated in the race, granted anonymity to speak freely. The strategist predicted that Fleming would emerge with the most votes.

Letlow, in response to negative campaigning from both of her opponents, has made Trump’s endorsement the centerpiece of her campaign, offered up as proof she passes the MAGA litmus test.

“What I’m hearing is this actually looks pretty, pretty tight, with a lot of undecideds right now,” said Jamey Sandefur, chair of the Livingston Parish GOP. “I’m getting the sense that a lot of people are walking into the booth and deciding when they get there.”

“I’ve always thought that endorsements don’t really matter, but I have heard a lot of people tell me that the Trump endorsement of Congresswoman Letlow is going to be the deciding factor for them,” he said. “So that’s playing in the race a lot more than I had expected.”

Adam Wren contributed reporting.

​Politics

Colorado Gov. Jared Polis said Friday that he will grant clemency to Tina Peters, a former county clerk and darling of election conspiracy theorists who was serving a nine-year prison sentence for allowing unauthorized access to voting machines after the 2020 election.

Polis, a Democrat, told CNN that he is halving her sentence, meaning she could be paroled within a month after accounting for time already served for aiding efforts to overturn the presidential election.

The Colorado governor said his decision came after Peters acknowledged her wrongdoing in an application for leniency, which was obtained by CNN. POLITICO has not independently reviewed the document.

Polis told CNN he believed Peters’ was unfairly punished for free expression in her comments alleging fraud in the 2020 election.

“I hope that Democrats don’t sacrifice our deeply held belief in free speech because of political expediency or disregard for what people are saying,” Polis told CNN. “There should be no consideration of what we say, how unpopular it is, how inaccurate it is in sentencing or in criminal proceedings.”

Polis’ decision followed months of intense pressure from President Donald Trump, who issued his own symbolic pardon of Peters last year, but cannot grant clemency for violations of state law.

Trump has repeatedly called on Polis to free Peters, and his pressure campaign came as his administration has taken a series of actions to slash funding to and litigate against Colorado. Also in December, Trump vetoed a bipartisan bill meant to bring clean water to the state, the first and only veto of his second term.

Polis told CNN he spoke with Trump privately about Peters’ case, but insisted he granted her clemency after “looking at the merits of the case.”

The Democratic governor, who has occasionally bucked his own party, suggested he was weighing granting Peters clemency in March, after a former Democratic state senator was sentenced to probation and community service after being convicted of similar charges.

“Justice in Colorado and America needs to be applied evenly, you never know when you might need to depend on the rule of law,” he wrote on X.

Peters was convicted on four state felony charges in August 2024 by a Colorado jury after she fraudulently gave a right-wing activist affiliated with MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell access to the Mesa County election system.

She was unrepentant in her sentencing hearing two months later, telling the court that she’d “never done anything with malice to break the law.”

Peters’ conviction was upheld by an appeals court in April, but ruled that the lower court’s decision to impose a nine-year sentence was too harsh.

In a statement issued before Polis’ decision on Friday, Colorado Secretary of State Jena Griswold, a Democrat now running for attorney general, strongly urged Polis not to grant leniency to Peters.

“Peters organized the breach of the election equipment, broke the public trust and attacked the very foundations of our democratic process,” she said. “Her actions are still being used to try to undermine the 2026 election. She should get no special treatment by the Governor, and his statement is shocking and worrisome.”

Peters’ case has long attracted the attention of prominent Republicans, including Trump, who falsely argue that former President Joe Biden’s victory in the 2020 election was fraudulent.

“Democrats have been relentless in their targeting of TINA PETERS, a Patriot who simply wanted to make sure that our Elections were Fair and Honest,” Trump wrote on Truth Social in December. “Tina is sitting in a Colorado prison for the ‘crime’ of demanding Honest Elections.”

​Politics

Georgia Democrats are worried their front-runner will fumble a “once in a generation” chance to win the governor’s mansion this year.

Keisha Lance Bottoms has what should be an enviable résumé: former judge, city council member, mayor of Atlanta and senior White House adviser. She’s dominating public polling in the primary, bolstered by high name recognition in the Atlanta metro area.

But a third of the Democratic electorate remains undecided, and her most high-profile endorsement is from former President Joe Biden, who left office deeply unpopular among Americans.

The wariness from Georgia Democrats stems from a simmering concern about Bottoms’ ability to win a general election, conversations with more than a half-dozen strategists and officials revealed. They warn that the crown jewel of Bottoms’ work experience — leading the state’s biggest city — will be a major drag to her campaign. Her tenure was marked by turmoil as Atlanta, like other major cities at the time, grappled with the onset of the pandemic, social unrest and spikes in crime.

Now, they worry, Bottoms could upend their best opportunity to flip the governorship for the first time in two decades.

“Keisha, because she’s so strongly identified with the city of Atlanta, obviously faces a very high hurdle,” said Howard Franklin, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist who is backing one of Bottoms’ competitors, former state Sen. Jason Esteves, and whose firm has performed contract work for his campaign. “I don’t think there’s anybody who’s paying attention to this race who thinks that Republicans are anything less than prepared to criticize and to pile on to the criticism of the four years that she was in office.”

The Democrats interviewed, some of whom were granted anonymity to speak openly about the primary, fear her record will be easily caricatured by Republicans in the general election, leaving her vulnerable to attacks on issues like public safety.

“The Republicans will eat her for lunch. The Republicans are begging us to nominate her,” said one longtime Democratic strategist unaffiliated in the race. “If she’s at the top of the ticket, the whole ticket loses. If she’s not … we can sweep it. The stakes are that high.”

TaNisha Cameron, a spokesperson for Bottoms’ campaign, dismissed the concerns as political hand-wringing and said the Democrat is focused on “standing up to Donald Trump’s candidate for governor.”

“Political insiders have underestimated Keisha Lance Bottoms her entire career, and she has constantly proven them wrong by winning elections and beating their hand-picked candidates. Keisha is leading in the polls in both the primary and general election because voters like her vision for Georgia’s future and her record of delivering for the people of Atlanta,” Cameron said in a statement, going on to highlight how Bottoms attracted nine Fortune 500 companies to Atlanta while in office and left the city with a $180 million budget surplus.

Central to Bottoms’ pitch to voters is a pledge to expand Medicaid in Georgia and guarantee universal pre-K statewide. In mid-May, just a few weeks after the Supreme Court significantly limited the power of the Voting Rights Act, Bottoms released a comprehensive plan to protect access to the ballot in Georgia.

This could be the Democratic Party’s last shot in a generation to grasp all the levers of political power in Georgia. Republican Gov. Brian Kemp is set to redraw the state’s congressional and state legislative districts ahead of 2028. And as President Donald Trump revives personal grievances about the 2020 election, the leading GOP gubernatorial candidates are vocal election deniers who continue to sow doubt about Georgia’s voting systems in a state that will be central to the 2028 presidential race.

Each of Bottoms’ Democratic primary opponents is running in their own loosely defined lanes: former DeKalb County executive Michael Thurmond as the steady hand with experience in statewide office, former state Sen. Jason Esteves as the progressive next-generation leader, and Republican-turned-Democrat Geoff Duncan as a moderate trying to appeal to voters in the center.

But those three contenders for runner-up have found themselves in a near statistical tie for second place for months. So far, they’re collectively holding Bottoms below the 50 percent threshold that she would need to win the race outright and advance to the general election.

“It’s unfortunate right now, but in the state of Georgia versus what we saw in 2018 with Stacey Abrams, or what we saw with Warnock — we’re missing the light,” said Cobb County Democratic Chair Essence Johnson, who’s staying neutral in the primary. “We don’t have a true, strong light, because there’s so many differences. It’s great, because that shows what democracy is. But again, there’s a lot of candidates.”

Some Democrats don’t see a major issue with Bottoms’ potential nomination — especially with the GOP in a tougher position, staring down Trump’s cratering approval ratings and struggling to message on voters’ cost of living concerns and an unpopular war in Iran.

“The Republican Party is very underwater. I think the Republican Party is more underwater than Keisha Lance Bottoms is,” said John Jackson, the former DeKalb County Democratic Chair. “At the end of the day, she’s a competitive general election candidate.”

One early general election poll shows Bottoms leading the three top Republicans running for governor, but all within the survey’s margin of error.

A Bottoms win would be historic: She would be the first Black woman elected governor in the history of the country — and the first Black governor of the Peach State.

The increased attention toward Bottoms’ performance with public safety did not happen in a vacuum, as several Black women — including former Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot and D.C.’s Muriel Bowser — faced extra scrutiny from critics as they guided major American cities through the depths of the pandemic and nationwide protests.

Bottoms’ defenders are confident in her standing with voters.

“I have seen the kind of hand-wringing, and it is predominantly coming from very, very, insider politico Atlanta circles,” said Kristen Kiefer, Democratic chair in Houston County, which is located in central Georgia. Because of her party role, she cannot endorse a candidate.

“What we saw from here, far from Atlanta, was somebody that was willing to stand up to the governor over mask mandates,” she said. “What we saw during social unrest was the city of Atlanta was making space for peaceful protests, but then, too, we all remember the night that Keisha was on TV with Killer Mike and T.I. telling everyone to go home and being ready to shut it down when it got out of hand.”

Still, others remain worried that Bottoms could hurt their chances, even in a midterm year that favors their party.

“Most Democrats who are being honest are nervous about the campaign of Mayor Bottoms, who, to be clear, brings a lot of strengths to the race,” said Andrew Heaton, a Georgia-based Democratic strategist who is unaffiliated in the primary. “[Republicans] are going to have to find messages against the other candidates. They’ve already got the attack ads on Mayor Bottoms written.”

Bottoms touts her wins in city hall on the campaign trail. In interviews, she has highlighted her administration’s success in building more affordable housing in Atlanta and authorizing pay raises for the city’s law enforcement. Still, her abrupt decision not to seek a second term in 2021, following a period of unrest in Atlanta, continues to haunt her.

“She’s got to answer some questions. She’s got to be able to answer these questions well: Why didn’t you run for reelection as mayor of Atlanta? There’s a perception that she ran away from that job,” said Jackson, whose tenure as DeKalb County Democratic Chair overlapped with Bottoms’ time as mayor. (Atlanta extends from Fulton County into DeKalb.)

At the time, Bottoms said in a press conference that it was “time to pass the baton on to someone else,” but did not detail her reasons for giving up the opportunity for another four years in office.

Pressed about her decision in a recent interview with Atlanta News First, Bottoms emphasized that she completed her term and didn’t skip out early.

“I served the entirety of my first term as mayor,” she said. “I was asked to go to the Biden White House three times, and decided not to do it because I wanted to complete the term that I had been elected to serve.”

The decision had followed a pounding four years in office that was dominated by the pandemic, a sharp rise in violent crime and protests over the police killings of George Floyd in Minneapolis and Rayshard Brooks in Atlanta. Bottoms’ response to the city’s social unrest drew bipartisan praise — particularly her impassioned remarks at a press conference with law enforcement telling protesters to “go home.”

But Democrats and Republicans alike have already seized on her perceived biggest vulnerabilities ahead of Election Day: that a reminder of her tenure in office will evoke flashbacks of burning buildings and unrest.

Esteves, the former state senator, attacked Bottoms on the debate stage last month over the death of 8-year-old Secoriea Turner, who was shot and killed while riding in a car near protests at the site where Atlanta police fatally shot Rayshard Brooks.

“I did not allow gangs to take over blocks. We lived through 2020 together. It was the most trying time in recent history in our country,” Bottoms responded. “I made every decision that I thought was the best decision at that time. But you cannot have the death of a child — of any child — and not wonder what, if anything, you could have done differently.”

Republicans, who have otherwise been mired in their own competitive and rancorous primary, have found time to preview their general election attacks against Bottoms. In an April ad, billionaire health care executive Rick Jackson said the former mayor “abandoned” her city in a crucial moment.

“When the city needed her, she let Atlanta burn,” Jackson says over footage of protests in downtown Atlanta.

That early Republican effort to attack Bottoms’ record is exactly what has some Democrats worried about her strength in a general election.

“This is a strategic choice. Sometimes when we make these choices in voting, some of the choices can be emotional, some of them can be related to personal ties,” said state Rep. Michelle Au, who is backing Duncan in the gubernatorial primary.

“But really the most important thing — or even the only important thing — is: Can this Democrat win? Because we can get a Democrat out of the primary, and that’s all fine, but if they can’t win in November, it does not achieve my goal.”

CORRECTION: A previous version of this article misstated Howard Franklin’s position on the Georgia governor’s race. He is backing former state Sen. Jason Esteves for the Democratic nomination.​Politics