Category: Politics

Just after halftime in their country’s match against South Africa on Thursday afternoon, Mexican embassy officials were nervous.

Forward Julián Quiñones scored a goal in the first nine minutes, and spirits were high at the embassy’s Washington watch party where mini-burritos, cervezas and — in a nod to the bilateral relationship — McDonald’s hamburgers and walking tacos were flowing freely. But South Africa’s shots on Mexico’s goal were creating staccatos of panic as the score remained 1-0.

“So far, so good — but it could be better,” one diplomat quipped.

Talk to Mexican officials, diplomats and business leaders, and it’s a sentiment that’s apropos of the current state of the bilateral relationship between the U.S. and Mexico as the two countries, along with Canada, kick off six weeks of FIFA World Cup festivities.

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum — who did not attend the opening match — has earned plaudits on both sides of the border for her behind-the-scenes work to cultivate a solid working relationship with President Donald Trump, despite vastly different political orientations and persistent friction over migration, drug trafficking and trade.

Sheinbaum’s domestic challenges were also on full display outside the historic Azteca stadium Thursday, where hundreds of protesters demanding pay raises for teachers and more resources for the search of 130,000 missing persons in Mexico clashed with police and threw cones and other projectiles into the security perimeter.

Now, at what should be a continental high-water mark — as North America unites to host the World Cup — the relationship is instead facing its greatest test. Tensions are running high over the future of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, a brewing extradition standoff over several Morena party officials — including the governor of Sinaloa — and Trump’s fresh threats on Wednesday to target drugs “coming in by land” via Mexico.

“It’s on a knife’s edge,” said Arturo Sarukhán, Mexico’s ambassador to the U.S. during the Bush and Obama administrations. “The paradox is that all of this is playing out as the World Cup kicks off, a World Cup that should have been a moment to celebrate the promise of North America, and to talk about the future of a North American century.”

The strain on the bilateral relationship beyond the World Cup is existential for Mexico — about 80 percent of the country’s exports flow to the United States — but also for the U.S., Mexico is the United States’ largest trading partner, with two-way trade topping $872 billion in 2025, accounting for roughly 15 percent of all goods coming into the U.S. And the integration runs deep into American supply chains, like autos and electronics, meaning that anything that seriously destabilizes the relationship is bad economic news for the U.S.

For now, the anxiety is largely one-directional, as Trump world remains broadly bullish on the U.S.-Mexico relationship even amid genuine turbulence. Two CIA officers were killed in an April crash in Chihuahua that revealed U.S. intelligence operatives working in the field alongside Mexican state investigators without, Mexican officials say, the federal government’s authorization. The Sinaloa indictments followed just over a week later.

“It’s a pressure point, but I also think if you ask people who work on this, they’d say that — relative to where we’ve been in the past — the security cooperation with Mexico is pretty good under Sheinbaum,” said Alex Gray, a former senior National Security Council official in the first Trump administration. “I think things are, all things considered, not bad.”

Even the original architects of the 2026 World Cup bid, which was won during the first Trump administration, agree that cracks in the U.S.-Mexico relationship were a more serious issue eight years ago.

North American soccer executives told POLITICO that bringing the U.S. together with Mexico wasn’t easy at a time when Trump was calling NAFTA — the precursor to USMCA — “a disaster” and demanding Mexico pay for his border wall.

White House aides laud Sheinbaum’s cooperation on everything from preventing the spread of Ebola heading into the World Cup to efforts to combat drug trafficking. A senior White House official, granted anonymity to speak candidly about the bilateral relationship, described it simply as “good.”

“I mean, there have been shared responsibilities, like, for example, the whole Ebola thing, right? We worked with them and Canada to ensure that there is proper vetting of individuals coming into the countries,” the official said. “We’re obviously working with her on combatting cartels on many fronts, so it’s good.”

The Mexican embassy in Washington did not respond to a request for comment.

Yet Mexican officials have watched the relationship unfold with a kind of cognitive dissonance, marked by progress in one lane and crisis in another. Homeland Security Secretary Markwayne Mullin’s meeting last month with Sheinbaum in Mexico, for instance, was seen as a positive step for the bilateral relationship, particularly for the security cooperation that has underpinned it.

But that goodwill is being tested on several fronts. The Morena indictments are creating a domestic quagmire for Sheinbaum, who is demanding “overwhelming and irrefutable proof” before moving against Sinaloa Gov. Rubén Rocha Moya and the nine other current and former Mexican officials who have been charged by the U.S. Justice Department with drug trafficking and weapons offenses.

Trade talks between the two countries had also been going reasonably well — so much so that the two have been talking without Canada even at the table. But Trump on Wednesday injected a fresh dose of uncertainty by saying he was “not looking to renew” the pact and dismissed the notion that the U.S. needed either of its neighbors. And the countries are all but certain to miss the July 1 date to renew the agreement, with a third round of talks scheduled in Mexico City the week of July 20.

The uncertainty has left proponents of the bilateral relationship nervously reading the tea leaves of Trump’s public appearances for any indication of growing irritation with Sheinbaum.

“What I’m seeing is it’s not just one single relationship: We have several individual and topic-based agendas. You have something very good in one hand and something struggling in the other. What we’re trying obviously is to have an umbrella relationship that is good, that makes the other individual agendas also good,” said Enrique Perret, managing director of the U.S.-Mexico Foundation. “But right now we don’t have that good umbrella relationship. That’s what we’re missing.”

The two leaders still have yet to meet at the White House, a move that some south of the border see as a carefully calculated effort on Sheinbaum’s part to not take any unnecessary gambles with the relationship, and avoid the kind of Oval Office spectacle that became commonplace between Trump and world leaders last year.

The two have only met once in person — at the official draw for the 2026 FIFA World Cup in December. Whether they’ll appear together at any games in the coming weeks remains an open question.

​Politics

The nation’s conservative advocacy groups will be well represented at the Great American State Fair, a two-week-long exposition celebrating the country’s 250th anniversary on the National Mall that is blessed by President Donald Trump and his allies.

The fair is organized by Freedom 250, a nonprofit set up by the president and his allies to promote the country’s semiquincentennial. Freedom 250 has clashed with — and overshadowed — America250, a bipartisan organization chartered by Congress a decade ago to prepare for the country’s anniversary.

Conservative organizations featured at the fair, according to a release sent on Friday by Freedom 250, include America Prays, a coalition of evangelical and other religious groups that calls for weekly prayer for the United States of America; the American Principles Project, a prominent political advocacy organization; and the Association of Mature American Citizens, which pitches itself as a rival to the AARP.

Joining them is Hillsdale College, a small Christian liberal arts school known for its conservative bent, and Focus on the Family, a prominent anti-LGBTQ+ ministry that describes its mission as one dedicated to fostering “marriages that go the distance, equip parents to raise great kids and put Jesus Christ at the center of homes worldwide.”

Some Democrats have charged that Trump has taken the bipartisanship out of the monumental anniversary. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.) in February said that the administration was working to “hijack the country’s 250th anniversary and sell access, hide his donors and rewrite history.” Also in February, Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) launched a probe into Freedom 250’s fundraising practices.

The fair will run from June 25 to July 10, “and transform the National Mall into a living showcase of America’s past, present, and future,” organizers announced on Friday.

“PRAY.COM is honored to be participating in the Great American State Fair as an opportunity to connect with people from across the country,” Steve Gatena, founder and CEO of Pray.com — one of the lead organizers of America Prays — said in a statement. “Our mission is to grow faith and cultivate community through technology, and we look forward to sharing resources that support prayer, encouragement, and spiritual well-being.”

None of the other organizations immediately responded to requests for comment.

Painter Scott LoBaido, whose website promotes a print of New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani blowing up Manhattan, will also be doing live art at the fair, according to the Friday release.

Organizers said more than 100 states and institutions will be represented with booths at the fair. The event is also drawing companies with no specific political affiliation, from C-SPAN to Meta and tractor company John Deere.

“Americans have been arguing at the dinner table for 250 years and somehow still showed up to the same Fourth of July party,” Freedom 250 spokesperson Rachel Reisner said in a statement when asked about the conservative groups’ participation. “We’re not stopping now. The Great American State Fair, July 4 fireworks, the whole spectacular once-in-a-generation 250th anniversary blowout — it’s happening, and your neighbor with the opposing bumper sticker is going to be standing right next to you, probably enjoying it just as much. Freedom 250 is a celebration for America — which, last we checked, includes all of it. Every single star on that flag. See you there.”

But some states have chosen to sit out. At least six states — Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, Massachusetts, North Carolina and Oregon — will officially not be sending anyone to the fair, NOTUS reported on Thursday. Freedom 250 is bringing in other institutions from those states, the outlet wrote.

In May, several musical artists dropped out of planned performances at the fair after learning of its ties to Trump, prompting the president to announce plans to hold a political rally instead, scheduled for June 24.

“It will be special at every level — A Rally to end all Rallies!” he wrote on Truth Social last week. “We don’t want singers with no talent, but big fees to put you to sleep, we’ve told them all to stay home. All we want is you, me, a few speakers, and the Greatest Music ever played, the same Music you have listened to for years!”

​Politics

VERY SUPERSTITIOUS: For the first three quarters, it looked like the San Antonio Spurs were going to cream the Knicks in last night’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals.

But in an epic comeback, the Knicks overcame the Spurs’ 29-point lead — a new record in an NBA Finals game — and beat San Antonio 107-106, putting the hometown team just one win away from claiming its first championship in over five decades.

In New York political circles, there was an almost singular explanation for the unbelievable come-from-behind victory: The Trump curse had been lifted.

“THANK YOU TO THE PEOPLE WHO BLESSED MSG TODAY TO GET THE STANK VIBES OUT,” Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez wrote on X just before midnight. “YOUR SERVICE IS APPRECIATED.”

The progressive lawmaker’s all-caps missive was a reference to superstitious Knicks fans burning sage outside Madison Square Garden to cleanse it of what they saw as the bad juju President Donald Trump cast over the team by attending Monday’s Game 3 (which the Spurs won 115-111).

Queens Borough President Donovan Richards suggested Staten Island’s own Wu-Tang Clan — which performed last night’s halftime show at MSG — had a hand in rooting out the bad vibes. “Wu-Tang is for the children!!!” Richards wrote on X in response to a video of the rap group’s performance captioned: “Wu-Tang Clan have broken Donald Trump’s curse on the Knicks.”

No matter what brand of superstition is at play, it’s unmistakable that the Knicks’ playoff prowess has led New Yorkers to search for otherworldly explanations — and it seems to be the only thing local politicians can talk about.

In an Instagram video posted late last night, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries suggested there was a more cerebral catalyst for the Knicks’ latest win.

“Wemby tried to taunt the Knicks when they were up by about 29, suggesting that he was in our heads,” Jeffries said in a video, referring to Spurs center Victor Wembanyama. “No. Actually Wemby, we were in your head.”

For his part, Mayor Zohran Mamdani turned to God for guidance about the Knicks.

“Knicks in five — inshallah, baby, let’s go,” he practically shouted on Hot 97 radio this morning, using the Arabic term for “God willing.”

Game 5 of the Finals is Saturday in San Antonio. If the Knicks win, they will claim the championship trophy for the first time since 1973.

Not everything has been peaches and cream in the Big Apple when it comes to the Knickerbockers, though.

An NYPD spokesperson said 56 Knicks fans were taken into custody last night after massive and destructive crowds converged near The Garden to “celebrate” the victory.

According to the spokesperson, 10 officers were injured in the rampage, including one who got hit in the head with a glass bottle as the crowds jumped on top of moving vehicles, tried to flip over a parked cab and set off fireworks.

“This demonstrates exactly why the NYPD has increased our presence in and around Madison Square Garden,” the police spokesperson said.

The chaos unfolded after Knicks owner James Dolan canceled last night’s ticketed watch party outside MSG because he was angry with Mamdani and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch for blocking unauthorized pedestrian traffic in a large swath of Midtown around the arena due to security concerns. — Chris Sommerfeldt

From the Capitol

MESSAGE RECEIVED: Gov. Kathy Hochul responded today to White House border czar Tom Homan’s threat of an ICE surge into the Empire State.

“It’s not how we do things in New York,” Hochul said at an event in Queens. “Maybe Washington is a different breed there, and they think that intimidation and creating fear is a way to govern, and we’re just rejecting that here in the state of New York. That’s not who we are, never has been, never will be.”

Homan’s threats come after Hochul and state lawmakers sealed a deal on a package of measures meant to protect undocumented immigrants, following ICE’s deportation operation in Minneapolis. The bills would limit civil deportation warrants from being executed in sensitive locations and prevent law enforcement, including ICE agents, from wearing masks.

Homan blamed Hochul for the threatened surge after she signed legislation ending so-called 287(g) agreements that enable local law enforcement to share resources with federal authorities.

Hochul said such a surge would be “contrary” to what Trump previously told her. The governor also mentioned that Homan’s reasoning does not apply since only nine counties in New York previously participated in the 287(g) program — and none of those include any of New York City’s five counties.

“New York City, where we’re predicting he’ll send the agents to, has never had a 287(g) agreement. They’ve never been allowed to use the jails. Never been allowed to use local police enforcement,” the governor said. “It is irrational. It shows that they do not comprehend what is happening in the state of New York.” — Leah Clark

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

TRIALS AND TRIBULATIONS: A federal judge found former New York City Comptroller Brad Lander not guilty of misdemeanor obstruction Thursday for blocking an elevator while protesting last year outside an immigrant holding area.

Lander was hit with the obstruction charge in September while demonstrating in support of detained immigrants at 26 Federal Plaza in Lower Manhattan. He was offered a deal to drop the charge but opted instead for a trial to draw attention to the federal government’s immigration policies.

Lander said he was there with state legislators to view the facility’s conditions, not to purposefully block an elevator — and that he would have moved if asked. In reading his findings, Judge Henry Ricardo described Lander’s testimony as consistent with video evidence, noting that his movements didn’t suggest he was purposefully trying to block the elevator and that Lander appeared “tired and a bit resigned.”

“No offense to Mr. Lander,” the judge said.

Lander — who entered the courtroom in good spirits and holding a Knicks hat — told reporters after the verdict: “I didn’t feel tired.”

“I felt an urgency to show up that day and try to fight what ICE is doing,” he said.

After a month’s delay, Lander finally had his first day in court Wednesday — less than two weeks before the primary election — bringing immigration even more to the forefront in the waning days of his campaign against Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman.

Goldman, who often highlights his oversight visits at immigrant detention centers and his “triage center” to support detainees near 26 Federal Plaza, has repeatedly criticized Lander for his approach to immigration. On Wednesday, he referred to Lander’s case as “performative” and “self-promoting.” At a debate last week, Goldman chided him for the rhetorical refrain that he puts his “body on the line” for immigrants and for fundraising off of it.

“While Brad never did get the information he sought from ICE, I have all of that information from my weekly oversight visits and would be happy to brief him,” Goldman said in a statement.

Read more from Madison Fernandez in POLITICO. 

POLL POSITION: The race between Rep. Adriano Espaillat and primary challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier is close in the final stretch of the campaign, according to a pro-Avila Chevalier poll.

The survey, conducted by Data for Progress for Justice Democrats, the progressive group that recruited the challenger, found Avila Chevalier with 39 percent of support compared to Espaillat’s 35 percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents were undecided.

The poll was conducted among 319 likely Democratic primary voters from June 3 to 9, after Mamdani endorsed Avila Chevalier — and as pro-Espaillat entities bombarded the airwaves with negative attacks against her. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.

The survey also shows that 86 percent of respondents in the district either have a very favorable or somewhat favorable view of the mayor. Avila Chevalier is leaning heavily into Mamdani’s endorsement.

There’s no public polling in the race, though it’s evident Espaillat’s allies are anticipating a tight battle, considering the millions of dollars being poured into the race on his behalf in the homestretch. — Madison Fernandez

FROM CITY HALL

2029 VISION: Most political players in New York are focused on this month’s primary elections — but Mamdani is already looking well beyond them.

In a text message blast this afternoon, the mayor asked supporters to donate “any amount” they can to his 2029 reelection campaign, telling them he needs to start fundraising now because the opposition will “be better funded, better organized and ready to spend earlier than before.”

“Their fundraising is constant and prolific,” he wrote in the text obtained by Playbook. “In closed-door meetings, wealthy donors and insider operatives consider how to influence our politics year-round. That’s how our opponents secured the resources to spend $83 million against our movement last year … That’s why we’re making investments in our movement starting right now.”

Mamdani’s missive did not identify the individuals behind the opposition he described.

But a group called NYC Common Sense, spearheaded by former independent mayoral candidate Jim Walden and political consultant Phil Singer, launched last month with a stated goal of fighting his agenda with ads, policy papers and lawsuits. The group, whose formation was first reported by The New York Times, has already raised $1 million from as-of-yet unidentified donors.

Mamdani’s pivot to 2029 fundraising indicates he’s taking the nascent opposition to his democratic socialist project seriously. Trip Yang, a longtime Democratic strategist, acknowledged it’s relatively early to fundraise for 2029. Still, he said it’s a smart move.

“A strong early fundraising number is important to show the reelection is well-positioned,” Yang said.

Read more from Chris Sommerfeldt in POLITICO.

STILL LOADING: City Council Speaker Julie Menin exuded confidence today over the newly introduced protest buffer zone bill around education facilities, which has the backing of 35 council members, a veto-proof super majority.

“I did speak with the mayor about the bill. We had a brief conversation about it,” Menin said at a press conference. “I think the new bill really addresses some concerns that we had heard.”

Menin said the revised measure would still achieve the original proposal’s goals but more narrowly defines which types of locations are included. Universities, which were flash points for some of the country’s most heated demonstrations, have been excluded from the new bill.

The original measure was vetoed by Mamdani in April after he raised concerns about its broad definition of educational facilities and the potential impacts on protests tied to ICE, fossil fuel divestment and Palestinian rights.

He allowed a similar bill to become law in April while voicing opposition to both buffer-zone bills’ framing of “all protest as a security concern.”

A spokesperson for the mayor said the administration is still “reviewing the new version of the legislation.”  — Gelila Negesse

IN OTHER NEWS

— BAIT AND SWITCH: A year after New York City banned broker fees, renters say the charges never really left. (Gothamist)

— COURT-ORDERED VISITS: New York will begin to require judges to make recurring visits to prisons after years of a long-neglected oversight rule not being met. (The City Reporter)

— STRAPPED FOR CASH: The Mamdani administration is considering invoking a fiscal exception to delay required payments to nonprofits, citing cash constraints. (NBC New York)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics

For nearly four years, Ken Salazar — the U.S. ambassador to Mexico under former President Joe Biden — grew increasingly frustrated with the White House’s border plan.

Salazar says he begged for a “border czar” to run point on interagency coordination; he never got one, and instead, the moniker was inaccurately and problematically affixed to then-Vice President Kamala Harris. He asked for the White House to openly call it a border “crisis”; the designation came too late.

Salazar became so distraught that by July 2024, three weeks after Biden’s disastrous presidential debate performance, he decided to take matters into his own hands: “I should run for president,” Salazar told himself, according to his forthcoming book, a copy of which POLITICO obtained before its July 28 release date.

“There was political failure to understand the reality of the crisis at the border, and the political consequence it would have on Democrats in the 2024 election,” Salazar told POLITICO.

Salazar doesn’t want his party to repeat the past. His book, Borderlands: My Fight for an Inclusive America, is part-memoir, part-manifesto. Salazar — the former Interior secretary, Democratic U.S. senator, and Colorado attorney general — makes a case for what he calls “a new North American alliance,” in which the U.S., Canada and Mexico integrate their supply chains, jointly patrol their shared borders and promote cultural and educational exchanges. He sees it as a revival of former President John F. Kennedy’s Alliance for Progress.

But the book is also a warning to future 2028 Democratic presidential candidates.

Salazar is positioning himself as his party’s immigration whisperer, meeting with presidential hopefuls and pitching them on his “borderlands platform,” which says the U.S.’ borders are “broken” and “must be fixed.” He said in an interview that he’s already met with Arizona Sens. Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego about his plan, and he has a meeting scheduled with Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker. (Spokespeople for Kelly, Gallego and Pritzker did not respond to requests for comment.)

Salazar never followed through with his plan of running for president in 2024. Although he dialed up advisers and operatives and drafted out a platform, the Democratic Party did not hold a mini-primary to choose its new nominee after Biden dropped out. Instead, Biden hand-picked his successor, Harris — a decision Salazar calls a “mistake.”

Salazar writes that he consistently petitioned the White House to create a “border czar” position, allowing someone in Washington to run point on the interagency response to the immigration crisis. Harris, as vice president, had been tasked with addressing “root causes” of migration, and she devoted her efforts to addressing corruption in Central America. Salazar saw that as insufficient: “But sadly, her designation in this position was having no effect on migration flows,” he writes. He pressed several White House officials, and even Biden himself, to create the position. The designation never came.

“[Harris] had been placed in charge of getting at the ‘root causes’ of migration, but many felt she had been ineffective,” Salazar writes, suggesting perhaps she hadn’t been given enough authority or felt that taking more responsibility on the issue would be “political suicide.” “For whatever reason, she had been unable to help with the border and migration crisis, even though she’d sat next door to the Oval Office for almost four years.”

A spokesperson for Biden declined to comment, and a spokesperson for Harris did not respond to a request for comment.

Salazar’s book arrives at a moment when Americans view President Donald Trump’s immigration enforcement with widespread pessimism. A POLITICO Poll in April showed that half of Americans — including one quarter of his 2024 voters — said Trump’s mass deportations campaign is too aggressive. But his border policy is still viewed favorably, and Americans still broadly trust Republicans over Democrats on immigration — a fact some Democrats chalk up to a “Biden hangover.”

It’s likely to kickstart a fresh round of recriminations within the Democratic Party, on the heels of former first lady Jill Biden’s new memoir detailing her husband’s exit from the 2024 campaign. Joe Biden is also expected to release a new book soon, though a spokesperson clarified that “the release date has not been finalized.”

Salazar, in his book, is candid about the failures of the previous administration — and how those shortcomings provided a window for Trump to ride a wave of voter frustration with immigration enforcement back into office.

His administration colleagues disappointed him on other fronts. In October 2023, when former Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas visited Mexico, Salazar notes he pushed him for a consistent, White House-driven message on the border crisis. (“We used the word ‘crisis’ freely and often,” Salazar writes, “even if at that time the White House refused to acknowledge it as such.”) Salazar claims Mayorkas told him: “Ken, I have a lot on my plate already. I’m about to be impeached for all this border stuff. The Republicans have it out for me.”

Mayorkas declined to comment about Salazar’s characterization.

Salazar’s consistent efforts, and failures, to garner buy-in from the White House on addressing the border crisis led him to question how seriously his Democratic colleagues took the issue and how well they understood the U.S.’ relationship with Mexico. “I’m not sure this administration knows what they’re doing,” Salazar told his wife at the tail end of Biden’s visit to Mexico in 2023.

Finally, in June 2024, Biden issued an executive order that effectively closed the southern border, which Salazar cheered as a success. “This should have been a moment of vindication — after all, American voters were demanding action on the border — but it was too late, and images of an out-of-control border would dominate the closing months of the presidential election,” Salazar writes. (Last month, Mayorkas also implied the Biden administration should have taken that action sooner.)

The border was “antiquated, under-resourced, underdeveloped, insecure, and broken,” Salazar adds. “In this, Trump had been correct.”

It’s a warning sign to Salazar’s party both in this year’s midterm cycle and in 2028: Downplay voters’ concerns on immigration and the border at your own peril.

Salazar’s hope is that the Democratic Party’s next standard-bearer will take up his “borderlands” platform, which places the impetus for border enforcement upon all three North American countries. If no one does, though, he isn’t closing the door on a run himself.

Asked three times by POLITICO if he’s considering a presidential bid in 2028, he demurred. “I can’t see the future beyond the reality that we have a November 2026 election, and a lot’s going to happen this year,” he said. “Looking ahead, I want this borderlands platform to be part of that agenda for the future.”

Eric Bazail-Eimil contributed.

​Politics

Voters punished ruling parties across the globe in 2024. They are doing it again now.

The same voters who rejected their rulers without mercy on both sides of the Atlantic — throwing out Britain’s Conservatives after 14 years in power and humbling Democrats in the United States — are now poised to deliver resounding defeats to the very leaders they elected two years ago.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer faces the prospect of being ousted later this year if a key rival in Manchester can pull off a win in a special parliamentary vote next week. President Donald Trump, while locked into power until January 2029, appears to be barreling toward lame duck status with Democrats growing increasingly bullish about their midterm prospects in November — particularly in winning back the U.S. House.

And The POLITICO Poll suggests Western voters’ desire for political bloodletting hasn’t abated.

Building on previous work by Public First, the London-based firm that conducts the survey, a new analysis of May POLITICO Poll results show large shares of voters in both the United Kingdom and United States express deep cynicism about politics and a constant desire for radical change — suggesting the forces behind the backlash may still be potent, and that power switching hands this year may not be enough to quell them.

In America, 71 percent of adults say politicians only look out for themselves, including 79 percent of those who backed former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024 and 71 percent who voted for Trump. In the U.K., voters are similarly angry at politicians, who they blame for being unable to address a variety of issues, including cost of living and immigration. New results from The POLITICO Poll, conducted over the weekend, show a 56 percent majority of U.K. adults said the bigger problem with politics in the U.K. is the politicians who do not do the right thing, while just 15 percent blame the system itself.

That deep dissatisfaction has metastasized into a perpetual anti-incumbent frustration in recent years. In Germany, Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party had its worst result in a national election in several decades, and Canada’s Justin Trudeau stepped down amid growing voter frustration. Just since February of last year, the rulers of Germany, Hungary, the Netherlands and the Czech Republic have all been ejected at key elections.

Now the U.K. is watching the vote in Makerfield next week, which may determine whether Starmer gets to keep his job amid public outrage at his handling of fallout from the Epstein scandal, and voter concerns about immigration, the economy and law enforcement. If Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, succeeds in being elected back to Parliament next week, it will almost certainly trigger a series of events that could end in the removal of the deeply unpopular Starmer as the head of the Labour Party — and prime minister.

The result could ripple across the Atlantic as Republicans face their own political headwinds ahead of the crucial November midterms in the United States.

“What we’re seeing is a cross-Atlantic disconnect between voters and electeds,” said Kevin Madden, a longtime GOP communications strategist in Washington and senior partner at Penta, a consulting firm.

“Voters in the U.S. are squarely focused on at-home domestic priorities and kitchen-table concerns like food, health care and housing costs. So when the headlines are focused on foreign conflict and disruptions to global markets, those will reinforce the disconnect.”

Deep cynicism in the UK spells trouble for Starmer

In 2024, the rejection of incumbents came amid a growing frustration over the cost of living and broader economic anxieties. Whether that backlash was a temporary response — or reflects an engrained dissatisfaction with political institutions — is a question now confronting leaders on both sides of the Atlantic, as affordability concerns continue to spiral.

In the U.K., the analysis from Public First finds a deep sense of political disillusionment. The firm developed a series of measures to understand that feeling of “anti-politics”, and cynicism stood out: Voters who believe politicians are self-serving, that political talk rarely leads to real action and that the public has little influence over what politicians actually do.

Nearly half of British adults — 45 percent — scored high on Public First’s cynicism scale; so did 37 percent of U.S. adults.

The findings underscore the challenge facing Starmer. New results from The POLITICO Poll conducted last weekend show nearly two-thirds of U.K. adults — 64 percent — said they don’t think Starmer will remain as prime minister until the next general election.

The center-left U.K. leader has suffered the most dramatic plunge in popularity of any prime minister in British history. Since winning a landslide victory just under two years ago, Starmer has seen his Labour Party fall to historic lows in opinion polls, while the nationalist right-wing Reform U.K. of Nigel Farage has stormed into the lead in polls and local elections, mirroring the success of insurgent populists across Europe.

Three-quarters of highly cynical voters in the U.K. hold an unfavorable view of Starmer, the Public First analysis of a May POLITICO Poll found — far higher than the national average.

The Makerfield by-election on June 18 will determine whether Burnham, Starmer’s chief internal rival, is elected as Labour’s representative, giving him the chance to challenge Starmer for the party leadership and potentially replace him as prime minister. Burnham’s main rival in the by-election is the Reform U.K. candidate — whose victory would likely end Burnham’s leadership ambitions, plunge Labour into unprecedented turmoil and send the national government into fresh disarray.

But Makerfield looks likely to be terrible for Starmer, whoever wins. Either it will be Burnham, who will then go to London to try to oust the prime minister, or it will be Reform U.K. — fuelling claims that Starmer has toxified his own party beyond repair.

Why Trump should be watching closely

It’s a cautionary tale for Trump, the Public First research found.

As Starmer confronts dropping favorability ratings, Trump’s own numbers have also plummeted — and the segment of cynical Americans may be as dangerous for the president as their British cohort is for the prime minister.

Among this group, 57 percent hold an unfavorable view of Trump and his agenda, compared with 48 percent nationally.

That could pose a challenge for Republicans heading into the midterms. Elections in the U.S. historically punish the party in power, and many Republicans are bracing for an even more difficult than anticipated midterm landscape, fueled by the mounting economic concerns and an unpopular war in Iran.

“The biggest mood shift is taking place among voters in the big middle,” Madden said. “These are the same voters that migrated toward Trump and the GOP in 2024 because they were nostalgic for a Trump economy and they rallied around a message focused on tackling inflation.”.

Sizable shares of cynical Americans hold negative views about the economy. Among these respondents, 52 percent say their financial situation has worsened since Trump took office in 2025 and 59 percent say Trump has spent too much time focused on international affairs rather than domestic issues.

Trump, who rode to power in 2024 in large part over voter dissatisfaction to the economy during the Biden administration, is now confronting a similar challenge. Recent polling finds voters increasingly blaming Trump for their financial pressures, even as he continues to cast blame to his predecessor.

Part of the problem for incumbents is that many people blame politicians — not the broader system — for their dissatisfaction, underscoring the challenge for the leaders as voters begin to turn on them. Nearly half of British adults, 45 percent, say the country keeps changing prime ministers “because none of them are any good,” while just 26 percent blame “big problems that not even a good PM could solve.”

As soon as leaders are elected by a frustrated, dissatisfied electorate to turn things around — as both Starmer and Trump were in 2024 — the clock begins to tick.

“Elections are so often now about which candidate can channel the frustrations of a cynical electorate,” said Seb Wride, head of polling at Public First, POLITICO’s polling partner.

“Republicans and Democratic candidates alike should pay attention to what is happening in the U.K.,” he said. “It is far harder to win over an antipolitical voter base when you represent the ‘politics,’ and given how fast Britain is working through Prime Ministers cynical voters seem to be getting more common and less patient.”

​Politics

Democrats aren’t done debating Graham Platner.

Platner’s decisive victory in Maine’s Democratic Senate primary quelled for now any serious discussion that he could be replaced as the party’s nominee in the wake of a recent bout of scandals. The party’s campaign arms were quick to indicate support for him after the race was called Tuesday night. Progressives took a victory lap while arguing their colleagues need to coalesce around the Maine nominee.

But a small yet notable faction of Capitol Hill Democrats still has qualms about the oysterman’s tumultuous past that has rattled some Maine voters — and what it could mean for their chances of defeating Sen. Susan Collins and taking back the upper chamber in November.

On Wednesday, several senators stopped short of outright endorsing Platner when asked by POLITICO.

Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.), a potential 2028 contender who has kept his distance from Platner so far, said he thought Platner can defeat Collins and that “the path for us winning back control of the Senate runs through Maine.” But he still declined to endorse Platner, saying that he’d yet to meet or speak with the nominee. Asked whether Platner had done enough to address his scandals, Kelly said the oysterman has “got things to explain.”

Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D-Nev.), who had previously endorsed Gov. Janet Mills in the Maine Senate race, and Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-Ill.) also declined to endorse Platner on Wednesday. Cortez Masto rattled off other top Democratic targets in Iowa, North Carolina and Alaska, while Duckworth said she’s “focused on the Midwest.”

And Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.), a frequent critic of his own party who has repeatedly raised concerns about Platner, said Maine Democrats have made their choice but “I would never [endorse Platner]. I’ll be a Democrat to refuse to carry water for that.”

Even Sen. Peter Welch (D-Vt.), who said Wednesday he would support all Democratic Senate nominees, suggested the oysterman still has “work to do” to address his scandals.

“The challenge that Platner has is the challenge that any candidate has, and it’s to address in a direct way both personal and political issues that are legitimate questions for the voters. He’s got to do that,” said Welch, who had also met with Platner last week to privately urge him to address voters’ questions head on. “Until the election is over, he’s got work to do, every day in every way.”

Not every senator traditionally endorses in every race. But Democrats’ chances of taking back the Senate hinge squarely on being able to defeat Collins, the only Republican senator seeking reelection this year in a state former Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024. The party has hoped to knock off Collins many times before only to come up short — and it’s now putting its hopes on Platner, whose campaign has electrified Maine and generated unprecedented grassroots support, but also faced a litany of controversies.

Continued Democratic division could be a boon for Republicans who are already launching into general-election attacks on Platner. Collins has repeatedly won reelection with a coalition that includes a substantial share of independents and Democratic voters, especially moderate women.

Platner’s rise came without the backing of the Democratic establishment: Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) recruited Mills, who suspended her campaign in April after poor polling and fundraising numbers.

The political newcomer’s ability to challenge the establishment was part of his appeal to Maine voters, as he argued the Democratic Party had lost its way and needed to return to its working-class roots.

Some well-timed endorsements helped Platner in key moments in his primary campaign. Sen. Bernie Sanders’ (I-Vt.) early backing helped put him on the map. Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) gave his campaign a boost earlier this year as he faced renewed questions about a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol. And Sen. Brian Schatz (D-Hawaii) even helped him fundraise in the aftermath of the most recent allegations.

The New York Times last week reported that several of Platner’s ex-girlfriends alleged toxic patterns of behavior, including one who said he grabbed her in ways that left marks. Before that, his campaign acknowledged he had exchanged sexual messages with other women while married. Last fall, his uncovered Reddit history included numerous offensive comments. And Platner owned up to having a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol, although he said he was unaware of its meaning.

Platner has denied being violent with women and has argued that his past poor behavior reflects a difficult time in his life, as he struggled with post-traumatic stress disorder after leaving the military.

“I’ve made mistakes in my life, mistakes that I regret, that I lived with, that I continue to learn from,” he said in a Tuesday night victory speech. “I’m still far from perfect, but every day I wake up and I try to be a little bit better and a little bit kinder than I was the day before.”

Following his Tuesday primary victory, Platner’s Senate supporters urged their colleagues to rally behind him.

“They need to coalesce, they need to coalesce around Platner,” Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) told reporters on Wednesday, arguing Platner has “taken responsibility” for his past actions.

Sanders told reporters on Capitol Hill he was confident that Democrats would come around.

“Platner won a landslide victory last night, and I am quite confident that Democrats who want to regain the Senate will be supporting him as the Democratic nominee,” he said.

At least one lawmaker who had not previously endorsed Platner was ready to support him.

“Here’s a man who said ‘I made mistakes, I apologize for them, I am going to earn the trust of my constituents,’” said Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii). “That says a lot in contrast to the president, who never admits doing anything that is untoward, and who just blames everybody else, and who prosecutes people. I think Maine voters have expressed themselves and they’re willing to give him a chance.”

Other Democrats who had been skeptical of Platner’s viability in the general election — and had considered pressuring him to drop out — now appear resigned to him staying in the race.

“It was obviously a strong result for him which I think should quiet some of the immediate anxiety, but that will return if more revelations come out,” said one senior Democratic Senate aide, granted anonymity to discuss the race candidly. “Seems like even his supporters are not really defending the conduct, so [it’s] kind of incumbent on him to try to address more fully and move on.”

Another Senate Democratic aide, also granted anonymity to speak candidly about the race, agreed: “He weathered the storm, but is he out of it? Primary night didn’t answer that question. The next several weeks will determine whether this campaign is a referendum on his personal conduct or Susan Collins aligning with an unpopular GOP agenda that is hurting Mainers.”

Republicans have indicated they will try to make Platner’s controversies central to the race, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee and a pro-Collins super PAC launching ads that highlight some of the Democrat’s past Reddit comments. Platner, meanwhile, in his first general election ad on Wednesday, went after the “Epstein class” but did not mention Collins.

Sen. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) said her thinking on the race had not changed from a few weeks ago, saying she plans to “work with whoever the Mainers elect, period.”

“The way that this president has completely railroaded my Republican colleagues in this body, they don’t deserve to run a separate branch of government,” she said. “And if we want any chance of putting a check and balance on him that involves electing Platner.”

Asked whether Platner needs to do more to address his past scandals, Slotkin simply replied: “I just hope I’m not caught again live on TV answering the same questions about bad behavior.”

Jordain Carney contributed to this report.

​Politics

MAJOR SHIFT: Last week’s conclusion of Albany’s legislative session left Democratic state lawmakers poised for the biggest shakeup in their ranks since they assumed one-party control in 2019.

Assembly Majority Leader Crystal Peoples-Stokes is retiring at the end of the year, opening up the No. 2 job for only the second time since Carl Heastie became speaker 11 years ago.

State Sen. Mike Gianaris is on his way out too. His departure will leave open the role of Democratic Senate Campaign Committee chair, which he’s held since he was a senator-elect in 2010. It will also pave the way for a new floor leader and Majority Leader Andrea Stewart-Cousins’ deputy.

On top of that, Senate Democrats are about to become the first conference in state history to bump up against term limits.

Rules enacted in 2009 imposed eight-year caps on the majority leader and committee chairs. No party has remained in power long enough to be impacted since then, but the rules will soon apply to Stewart-Cousins and up to a dozen of her members.

“I’d probably have to,” state Sen. Liz Krueger said when asked if she’d vote to scrap the term limits. “Because it would mean Andrea couldn’t remain leader. And I do not actually accept the concept where Andrea doesn’t remain leader.”

Krueger is one of seven impacted chairs surveyed in recent months who unanimously said they want Stewart-Cousins to remain. But Democrats haven’t yet settled on what should happen to other top jobs.

“It’s really a question of ‘do you change all the term limits for everybody while you’re changing them for leadership, or do you allow for some new opportunities at the committee level?’” Investigations and Government Operations Committee Chair James Skoufis said. “I don’t know where I land on that.”

“The level of expertise I’ve developed, it’s not because I’m better or smarter than anyone else, I’ve just been in it longer,” state Sen. Gustavo Rivera said of the “deep and dark and mysterious” realm of policy he oversees as Health Committee Chair. “I would be hard pressed to find somebody in the Senate who would be able to do the job on day one.”

Gianaris’ departure might lead to widespread shuffling, regardless. And while Krueger is running again, she missed the conclusion of this year’s session after an April stroke. It remains to be seen whether she’ll return to the grueling job of being the top Democrat on the Finance Committee as she’s been since 2011 — possibly leading to more musical chairs at the top.

Stewart-Cousins said she’s looking for a deputy “who can bring the same types of talents and skills that Sen. Gianaris has brought.” Names that came up in surveys of legislators and lobbyists include state Sens. Jamaal Bailey, Andrew Gounardes and Shelley Mayer. Still, there isn’t a widespread consensus.

There’s more agreement over who might replace Peoples-Stokes. Upstaters have held the job since 1979, providing some balance to speakers from New York City over the years. The pick will need to be somebody who can work well with Heastie, and conventional wisdom holds they should have a good amount of tenure. Over a dozen insiders mentioned the same three names as fitting each of those criteria: Syracuse’s Pamela Hunter, Rochester’s Harry Bronson and Albany’s John McDonald.

Heastie, however, isn’t making a firm commitment to tradition.

“The requirement that the majority leader comes from upstate, that’s more of a y’all thing,” he told reporters. “I inherited a great majority leader who happened to be upstate in Joe Morelle, one of my closest friends. And then Crystal was somebody I knew even before I was elected, and she’s been amazing. But I don’t know if I feel limited to if it’d have to be somebody from upstate. It could be Long Island, it could be the Hudson Valley — I haven’t even really thought about it.” — Bill Mahoney

From the Capitol

MONSERRATE LEADS PACK: The state’s Public Campaign Finance Board issued $1.96 million in matching funds payments Tuesday, marking the final day such outlays will be issued before the June 23 primary.

The scandal-plagued Hiram Monserrate was the state’s top beneficiary of public funds this week.

He’s running to return to the state Senate against the incumbent state Sen. Jessica Ramos and Assemblymember Jessica Gonzalez-Rojas. Monserrate is the only sitting legislator to be removed by his colleagues in the past century, following his 2009 misdemeanor conviction arising from a domestic violence incident. Since then, this is his ninth comeback bid.

Overall, his haul trails the $348,000 in matching funds that Gonzalez-Rojas has received to date. Ramos has taken in $128,000 in recent months.

Read more from POLITICO Pro’s Bill Mahoney here.

FROM CITY HALL

BROKEN PROMISES?: Transit advocates are intensifying their pressure on Mayor Zohran Mamdani to set aside more money to lower bus and subway fares. Groups of straphangers, like Riders Alliance, are now portraying the mayor as a promise breaker if he doesn’t support an expansion of the Fair Fares program, which offers discounts to low-income New Yorkers.

“New Yorkers are hurting, especially low-income commuters whose work we all depend on, and this is the mayor’s last chance to lower costs for transit this year, after emphasizing the importance of affordable public transit for his entire career,” Riders Alliance spokesperson Danny Pearlstein said in a text message.

Free buses was one of Mamdani’s three most prominent campaign pledges — alongside child care for all and a rent freeze — but the one he’s seemed to make the least headway on.

Riders Alliance, along with City Council members Tiffany Caban, Shahana Hanif and others, is holding a rally at noon tomorrow outside City Hall to “demand” the mayor “keep his promise to lower costs” — more pointed language than advocates have used publicly in the past.

While Mamdani’s free bus plan is on hold in large part because Albany isn’t on board, the City Council has backed more money for Fair Fares. The mayor, however, is reluctant to take that path because he generally doesn’t support policies where access is based on how much money people make. — Ry Rivard

WORKING THE REFS: Mamdani has a bone to pick about the officiating at Monday’s NBA finals game, which the Knicks lost to the Spurs.

“Crime is going down in New York City, but what we saw the other night did feel criminal,” Mamdani quipped to reporters today. “You just look at the disparity on fouls that were being called. I think many New Yorkers came away from that game with a very clear reflection of the absence of fair refereeing.”

Despite the mayor’s fandom, Madison Square Garden, the home of the Knicks, released a statement Tuesday calling Mamdani and NYPD Commissioner Jessica Tisch “party poopers” for instituting tighter security for a watch party outside the arena tonight.

Asked about it, Mamdani said the level of security planned is “in line with the measures that the NYPD uses for gatherings of this size, whether it be July 4 or New Year’s Eve.”

“This team has brought an extraordinary amount of energy, pride, excitement to every corner of our city,” the mayor said. “We want this to be a memorable night for all the right reasons.”

A watch party scheduled outside MSG for Game 3 on Monday night was moved to Bryant Park thanks to President Trump attending the game.

Asked whether he holds Trump responsible for the Knicks’ loss, Mamdani laughed — but declined to blame the president.

“I’ve made clear my complaints about the refs,” Mamdani said. “I’m hopeful tonight we’re going to see a different game.” — Janaki Chadha

FROM THE CAMPAIGN TRAIL

WHAT TWEETS?: Darializa Avila Chevalier, Mamdani’s pick to unseat Rep. Adriano Espaillat, has come under plenty of fire for her old social media posts.

Mamdani claims he hasn’t seen them.

The posts in question include tweets where Chevalier wrote “F—k Kamala Harris,” criticized black and Arab men for “fetishizing ugly colonizer women,” and described wiping her hand on the American flag. They’re the subject of an Espaillat ad in which a narrator says, “Meet the real Darializa, the one she tried to delete.”

Asked about her social media imprint, Mamdani told reporters, “No, I have not seen those tweets.”

“What I’ve heard from her, and what I know a lot of others in the district have heard from her, is that her views have evolved, and that the campaign that she’s running on is reflective of what she’s going to be fighting for,” Mamdani said.

The mayor has opted against endorsing in other races, including the one for the Manhattan congressional seat being vacated by retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler.

Gracie Mansion is in that district, and while Mamdani said he plans to vote in the Democratic primary, he has not yet decided on who he’ll back. The candidates include Assemblymembers Micah Lasher and Alex Bores, Kennedy scion Jack Schlossberg and Trump critic George Conway.

“I’m one of those classic yet-to-make-a-decision voters that frustrate campaigns so dearly,” the mayor said. — Janaki Chadha

IN OTHER NEWS

— THERE’S NO ‘I’ IN TEAM: Brad Lander says he is not endorsing fellow congressional challenger Darializa Avila Chevalier, despite putting out a joint “Mamdani’s team” ad with her. (Jewish Insider)

— DIY BALLOT LINE: Shut out of major third party endorsements, candidates for NY-21 Republican Anthony Constantino and Democrat Blake Gendebien are battling in court over the validity of their made up ballot line names. (Times Union)

— NO EASY EXIT: Uber is suing New York City to block a new driver protection law, arguing it would force the company to keep dangerous drivers on the road. (Reuters)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics

David Flippo, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who earned President Donald Trump’s support, won the GOP primary to replace retiring Nevada Rep. Mark Amodei.

The race in Nevada’s 2nd District was a proxy war between Trump and prominent state Republicans, many of whom backed former state Sen. James Settelmeyer, including Amodei and GOP Gov. Joe Lombardo. Flippo ended up emerging victorious on Wednesday from a crowded, 13-person Republican field.

The victory continues Trump’s 2026 hot streak in GOP primary endorsements, marred only by a hiccup in last week’s Iowa gubernatorial primary. Trump backed Flippo in a Truth Social post in late May, less than two weeks before Election Day.

Flippo campaigned as a hardliner on immigration and transgender issues, and he slammed Settelmeyer as a “woke liberal” in ads. But Settelmeyer’s opponents took issue with Flippo, a longtime Las Vegas resident who only recently purchased property in Reno, attempting to run the state’s lone safely Republican district.

Amodei went as far as saying Trump “made a mistake” in a post on X.

But Flippo prevailed, riding support from Trump and Turning Point Action. He will enter November’s election as the heavy favorite in a district Trump won by 14 points in 2024.

​Politics