Category: Politics

It wasn’t just 2024: the Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien is signaling a more permanent realignment by donating to battleground Republicans in the upcoming midterms.

For the second year in a row, the labor union’s political arm donated to the Republicans’ House campaign arm after nearly two decades of mostly backing Democrats. The labor union’s D.R.I.V.E political action committee — Democrat, Republican, Independent Voter Education — gave the National Republican Congressional Committee $5,000 in the second quarter.

In addition to giving to the NRCC, Teamsters doled out a combined $62,000 in contributions to nearly two-dozen GOP congressional candidates, including in significant battleground districts:

• Rob Bresnahan, Mike Kelly and Brian Fitzpatrick of Pennsylvania
• Pete Stauber and Tom Emmer of Minnesota
• Nicole Malliotakis, Andrew Garbarino, Nick LaLota and Mike Lawler of New York
• Jefferson Shreve of Indiana
• Dave Taylor, Bob Latta, Michael Rulli and Dave Joyce of Ohio
• Jeff Van Drew and Chris Smith of New Jersey
• David Rouzer of North Carolina
• Tom Barrett of Michigan
• Blake Moore of Utah
• Darin LaHood and Mike Bost of Illinois
• Troy Nehls of Texas
• Vern Buchanan of Florida 

The group also gave this year to GOP Sens. Deb Fischer of Nebraska, Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Jon Husted of Ohio, and Dave McCormick of Pennsylvania.
And it’s not just Congress: the Teamsters’ political arm donated $50,000 to the Republican Attorneys General Association this past June.

“Our members are working people whose interests cut across party lines,” Kara Deniz, a Teamsters spokesperson, told POLITICO. “And there’s no value in living in a bubble … where you only talk to certain people to the exclusion of others.”

The group hasn’t forsaken Democrats — it still gives them more, including $15,000 to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee in April.

“Congressional Republicans have betrayed America’s workers and union members by selling out our communities for the GOP’s billionaire backers,” said DCCC Spokesperson Viet Shelton. “House Democrats will continue to work hard to earn the support of unions and their members who have built this nation and will be critical in our comeback to victory next year.”

But the GOP donations signify a marked shift in the pivotal labor union’s strategy since 2024, when Teamsters General President Sean O’Brien delivered a historic address at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee and his outfit began more seriously supporting Republicans.

It comes as O’Brien has sought to reach out beyond the union’s traditional audience — and union members themselves are more open to backing Republicans. He recently hosted Ramaswamy on his podcast, and sat with The Free Press for an interview with Bari Weiss.

And it’s a warning sign for Democrats that their labor support — long a keystone of their base — continues to erode, as President Donald Trump chisels away at it in his effort to remake the GOP as a working-class party.

“Labor unions are finally recognizing the fact that their memberships are made up of workers from across the political spectrum,” said Bresnahan, who received $5,000 from the Teamsters and whose grandfather was a member of the IBEW.

Last year, the Teamsters donated $25,000 to the NRCC and gave $45,000 to the RNC in an effort to diversify their support as their rank-and-file members move rightward.

“Hard-working men and women across the country are rallying behind Republicans up and down the ballot because we fight for their jobs, their families, and their future,” said NRCC spokesperson Mike Marinella. “Democrats have abandoned them for their deeply out of touch, radical policies. We’re bringing these voters home, and they will be key in growing our House majority.”

​Politics

With help from Amira McKee

MAMDANI’S BIG FOIL: Affordability was at the center of Zohran Mamdani’s primary campaign for New York City mayor. Donald Trump is the focus of his general election bid.

The Democratic nominee launched a five-borough tour “against Trump” on Monday to amplify how he believes the president will bring harm to New York City — and why he thinks he should be elected to lead the vanguard.

He’s also tying opponents Andrew Cuomo, Eric Adams and Curtis Sliwa closely to Trump, adopting a classic Democratic general election playbook by casting two fellow Dems and the GOP nominee as the president’s favored picks.

Mamdani’s recalibration comes as Trump announced he’s activating the National Guard to respond to crime in Washington, D.C., listing New York and Chicago among the cities that could be next in line.

It also follows a New York Times story about how Trump has talked with Cuomo as the president considers involving himself with the election. Cuomo has denied discussing the race with Trump.

“We see far too many parallels between Donald Trump and Andrew Cuomo, far too many stories that make clear that both administrations have been characterized by corruption, by a sense of impunity,” Mamdani told reporters Monday at the offices of 1199SEIU, which endorsed Cuomo in the primary but is backing Mamdani in the general election.

The young state assemblymember who stunned the Democratic establishment by defeating Cuomo in June — despite the former governor’s universal name recognition and a $25 million PAC in his corner — now faces the task of winning the November election by a hefty enough margin to bolster his mandate. Mamdani, a democratic socialist, is still seeking the endorsements of party leaders, including Gov. Kathy Hochul, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries.

But with or without them, he’s going after Trump — and anyone he argues would be used by Trump against New Yorkers.

He noted Monday that Cuomo conversed with Trump, Adams’ criminal fraud case was dropped at the urging of the Trump administration and that Sliwa shares a political party with the president.

“My administration will be Donald Trump’s worst nightmare,” Mamdani declared just last week, arguing his policies will lift up the same working class voters the president has left behind with cuts to health care and food benefits.

Trump has questioned Mamdani’s citizenship, vowed to arrest him if he interferes with federal agents’ crackdown on illegal immigration and threatened to cut federal funding to New York City if Mamdani doesn’t “do the right thing.”

Cuomo, making another bid for mayor after losing by nearly 13 points in June to Mamdani, has argued that Trump would step all over Mamdani. Cuomo said he already stood up to Trump as governor during the Covid pandemic.

“Trump will flatten him like a pancake,” Cuomo posted on X. (He used another food simile in a June primary debate, saying Trump would cut into Mamdani “like a hot knife through butter.”)

Adams, the incumbent mayor, has said he is not beholden to anyone, including the president. He has insisted that he seeks a working relationship with Trump for the benefit of the city.

And Sliwa, the longshot Republican making a repeat bid for mayor, has no direct relationship with Trump at all. In fact, the GOP nominee has encouraged Trump to stay out of the race for mayor.

“Comrade Mamdani is the American people’s worst nightmare,” White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson responded Monday, charging that Mamdani’s policies will tank the economy, increase crime and favor undocumented immigrants over American citizens. — Emily Ngo

PROGRESS IN READING AND MATH: The nation’s largest school system saw notable gains in reading and math scores this year, but disparities persist among Black, Hispanic and disabled students, according to results announced by New York City officials today.

About 56.3 percent of third through eighth graders were proficient in English during the 2024-25 school year, a 7.2 percentage point increase from the previous year, according to the latest data. Last school year’s figures represented a nearly 3 percentage point decrease from the year before — and coincided with the rollout of a new reading curriculum.

Math scores continued to rise, with 56.9 percent of students meeting standards, compared to 53.4 percent last year and 49.9 percent in 2023.

Schools Chancellor Melissa Aviles-Ramos acknowledged there were some “implementation hiccups” in the beginning.

“These numbers are telling us — both in [NYC] Reads and [NYC] Solves — that we’re heading in the right direction, but work still needs to be done,” she said in an interview. “So this is just fueling us to do better. It’s by no stretch of the imagination a time for us to rest.”

The percentage of Black, Hispanic and English language learners, as well as pupils with disabilities, scoring proficiently remain disproportionately low despite increases.

About 43 percent and 43.1 percent of Black and Hispanic students, respectively, demonstrated mastery of math, compared to 38.4 percent and 39.7 percent the previous year.

Aviles-Ramos called the persistent discrepancies “unacceptable” but also touted the improvements.

“They are huge increases and we beat pre-pandemic levels and so we know that what we’re doing is working,” she said. — Madina Touré

CUOMO’S ZOHRAN LAW PUSH: Cuomo promoted “Zohran’s Law” today, his new plan to block wealthy people from living in rent-stabilized apartments.

His proposal — while clearly political in origin — comes with a big practical question mark: Just how eager would the Democratic-dominated state Legislature be to work with Cuomo to pass such a measure if he were elected mayor?

Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said the changes could be enacted if Albany agreed to repeal the Urstadt Law. “If that was successful, we could do that at the city level,” he said.

The law, a measure enacted during Gov. Nelson Rockefeller’s tenure, gives Albany control over rent rules. Progressives have spent decades demanding Urstadt’s repeal, but their push has been met with long odds, with most Albany lawmakers over the past half century hesitant to give up the power to control housing rules, as well as donations from landlords who have historically been the state’s top campaign contributors. Even progressive legislators who’ve supported repeal in the past would likely be hesitant to move forward if it meant giving Cuomo more power.

As governor, Cuomo floated repealing the law when he attempted to force real estate groups to the table during housing talks in 2011, according to testimony in former Senate Majority Leader Dean Skelos’ corruption trial. But he never publicly championed giving up that power while governor.

“There are people running for governor right now and I don’t know where they stand on Urstadt, including Gov. Cuomo,” then-City Councilmember Jumaane Williams said in 2014. “I would like to know where he stands on repealing Urstadt and bringing Urstadt back to New York City.” — Bill Mahoney

— MAMDANI’S PUBLIC SAFETY: Mamdani’s vision for a new Department of Community Safety shows promise, but public safety experts say transferring NYPD duties to the proposed agency could pose an administrative challenge. (Gothamist)

— SHUTTERED SHELTERS: New York City real estate developers are looking to convert closed hotel shelters into residential apartments. (The Wall Street Journal)

— ICE CAPITAL: New York City is leading the nation in immigration courthouse arrests by ICE authorities. (THE CITY)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics

Staff at the State Department’s Office of Countering Violent Extremism and Bureau of Conflict and Stabilization Operations, which led U.S. anti-violent extremism efforts, were laid off, the units shuttered, on July 11, 2025.

This dismantling of the country’s terrorism and extremism prevention programs began in February 2025. That’s when staff of USAID’s Bureau of Conflict Prevention and Stabilization were put on leave.

In March, the Center for Prevention Programs and Partnerships at the Department of Homeland Security, which worked during the Biden administration to prevent terrorism with a staff of about 80 employees, laid off about 30% of its staff. Additional cuts to the center’s staff were made in June.

And on July 11, the countering violent extremism team at the U.S. Institute of Peace, a nonpartisan organization established by Congress, was laid off. The fate of the institute is pending legal cases and congressional funding.

President Donald Trump in February had called for nonstatutory components and functions of certain government entities, including the U.S. Institute of Peace, to “be eliminated to the maximum extent consistent with applicable law.”

These cuts have drastically limited the U.S. government’s terrorism prevention work. What remains of the U.S. capability to respond to terrorism rests in its military and law enforcement, which do not work on prevention. They react to terrorist events after they happen.

As a political scientist who has worked on prevention programs for USAID, the U.S. Institute for Peace, and as an evaluator of the U.S. strategy that implemented the Global Fragility Act, I believe recent Trump administration cuts to terrorism prevention programs risk setting America’s counterterrorism work back into a reactive, military approach that has proven ineffective in reducing terrorism.

The US war against terrorism

Between 9/11 and 2021, the cost of the U.S. war on terrorism was $8 trillion and 900,000 deaths, according to a Brown University study. Nonetheless, terrorism has continued to expanded in geographic reach, diversity and deadliness.

Though it was territorially defeated in Syria in 2019, the Islamic State – designated a foreign terrorist organization by the U.S. government – has expanded globally, especially in Africa. Its nine affiliates on the continent have joined several al-Qaida-linked groups such as al-Shabab.

The Islamic State has expanded through a decentralized model of operations. It has networks of affiliates that operate semi-autonomously and exploit areas of weak governance in places such as Mali and Burkina Faso. That makes them difficult to defeat militarily.

These terrorist organizations threaten the U.S. through direct attacks, such as the ISIS-linked attack in New Orleans on Jan. 1, 2025, that killed 14 people.

These groups also disrupt the global economy, such as Houthi attacks on trade routes in the Red Sea.

To understand why terrorism and extremism continue to grow, and to examine what could be done, Congress charged the U.S. Institute of Peace in 2017 to convene the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States.

This bipartisan task force found that while the U.S. military had battlefield successes, “after each supposed defeat, extremist groups return having grown increasingly ambitious, innovative, and deadly.”

The task force recommended prioritizing and investing in prevention efforts. Those include strengthening the ability of governments to provide social services and helping communities identify signs of conflict – and helping to provide tools to effectively respond when they see the signs.

The report contributed to the Global Fragility Act, which Trump signed in 2019 to fund $1.5 billion over five years of prevention work in places such as Libya, Mozambique and coastal West Africa.

Programs funded by the Global Fragility Act included USAID’s Research for Peace, which monitored signs of terrorism recruitment, trained residents in Côte d’Ivoire on community dialogue to resolve disputes, and worked with local leaders and media to promote peace. All programming under the act has shut down due to the elimination of prevention offices and bureaus.

What the US has lost

The State Department issued a call for funding in July 2025 for a contractor to work on preventing terrorists from recruiting young people online. It stated: “In 2024, teenagers accounted for up to two-thirds of ISIS-linked arrests in Europe, with children as young as 11 involved in recent terrorist plots.”

In the same month, the department canceled the program due to a loss of funding.

It’s the kind of program that the now defunct Office of Countering Violent Extremism would have overseen. The government evidently recognizes the need for prevention work. But it dismantled the expertise and infrastructure required to design and manage such responses.

Lost expertise

The work done within the prevention infrastructure wasn’t perfect. But it was highly specialized, with expertise built over 2½ decades.

Chris Bosley, a former interim director of the violence and extremism program at the U.S. Institute of Peace who was laid off in July, told me recently, “Adequate investment in prevention programs isn’t cheap, but it’s a hell of a lot cheaper than the decades of failed military action, and more effective than barbed wire – tools that come too late, cost too much, and add fuel to the very conditions that perpetuate the threats they’re meant to address.”

For now, the U.S. has lost a trove of counterterrorism expertise. And it has removed the guardrails – community engagement protocols and conflict prevention programs – that helped avoid the unintended consequences of U.S. military responses.

Without prevention efforts, we risk repeating some of the harmful outcomes of the past. Those include military abuses against civilians, prisoner radicalization in detention facilities and the loss of public trust, such as what happened in Guantanamo Bay, in Bagram, Afghanistan, and at various CIA black sites during the George W. Bush administration.

Counterterrorism prevention experts expect terrorism to worsen. Dexter Ingram, the former director of the State Department’s Office of Countering Violent Extremism who was laid off in July, told me: “It seems like we’re now going to try shooting our way out of this problem again, and it’s going to make the problem worse.”

What can be done?

Rebuilding a prevention-focused approach with expertise will require political will and bipartisan support.

U.S. Reps. Sara Jacobs, a Democrat from California, and Mike McCaul, a Texas Republican, have introduced a bill that would reauthorize the Global Fragility Act, extending it until 2030. It would allow the U.S. government to continue preventing conflicts, radicalization and helping unstable countries. The measure would also improve the way various government agencies collaborate to achieve these goals.

But its success hinges on securing funding and restoring or creating new offices with expert staff that can address the issues that lead to terrorism.

This analysis was developed with research contributions from Saroy Rakotoson and Liam Painter at Georgetown University.

Kris Inman does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

When the head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s urban search and rescue team resigned after the deadly July 4, 2025, Texas floods, he told colleagues he was frustrated with bureaucratic hurdles that had delayed the team’s response to the disaster, acccording to media reports. The move highlighted an ongoing challenge at FEMA.

Ever since the agency lost its independent status and became part of the Department of Homeland Security in the early 2000s, it has faced complaints about delays caused by layers of bureaucracy and red tape, leaders at the top with little experience in emergency response, and whiplash policy changes.

Now, the Trump administration is cutting jobs at FEMA and talking about dismantling the agency, which would push more responsibility for disaster response to the states.

Yet, federal emergency management is crucial in America.

I run the Hazards Vulnerability & Resilience Institute at the University of South Carolina and for years have worked with states and communities facing hazards and disasters. To better understand FEMA’s value, let’s take a look back at how the nation responded to disasters before the agency existed, and what history reveals about when FEMA was most effective.

Disaster response without the US government

Before 1950, disaster relief and response were not considered a federal responsibility. When a hurricane, flood or tornado hit, community members and humanitarian groups, such as the American Red Cross or Salvation Army, brought in food, shelter and medical aid and solicited charitable donations to help people rebuild.

State and local governments had primary responsibility for disaster response. But mostly people relied on family, neighbors and charity.

Federal aid was approved on a case-by-case basis. War Department guidelines in 1917 stated that aid would be allowed only if a senior military officer certified that responding to the disaster would exceed local and state resources.

Then the Great Mississippi Flood of 1927 and the 1930s Dust Bowl gave new meaning to the concept of disaster in America.

In 1927, the Mississippi River broke through its levees, submerging more than 1 million acres of land across seven states. An estimated 700,000 people were displaced from their homes and workplaces.

Herbert Hoover, then U.S. commerce secretary, was given full authority to create, coordinate and carry out the federal relief effort. The Red Cross set up camps using tents provided by the War Department. Coast Guard and Navy boats rescued people stranded by flooding. But the response drew criticism for the lack of direct federal money to help flood survivors and the treatment of Black sharecroppers and laborers.

A few years later, the droughts of the Dust Bowl era began destroying crops in the Great Plains, causing widespread damage.

Federal disaster aid begins to take shape

After the flood, the federal government began to formalize its role in disaster management.

Flood control projects became a federal responsibility with the passage of the Flood Control Act of 1928. President Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal provided emergency relief to farmers in the Great Plains and set up the Soil Conservation Service to help them reduce the effects of future droughts. These were among the first disaster mitigation policies at the federal level.

There was little coordination among agencies, however. Various aspects of disaster relief and recovery were handled by the departments of Defense, Agriculture, and Housing and Urban Development and the Small Business Administration. Each had its own rules and requirements.

In 1950, Congress passed the Federal Disaster Relief Act, establishing the first permanent authority for federal disaster relief.

The act gave the president the responsibility to determine how aid would be distributed and which agencies would be involved. The legislation also broadened the federal mission to include disaster preparedness and mitigation and formalized the process for issuing presidential disaster declarations.

The creation of FEMA

By the 1970s, large-scale disasters such as hurricanes Betsy (1965) and Camille (1969), and the fragmented disaster response, led the National Governors Association to call for a single comprehensive emergency management agency. Its report provided the blueprint for President Jimmy Carter’s 1979 executive order that established the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA.

The new agency became the home for emergency management within the executive branch. It was intentionally designed as an independent federal administrative agency that could work across federal agencies to support state and local governments in times of crisis.

FEMA wasn’t created to lead the disaster response. Instead it helps state and local officials by mobilizing federal resources, such as search and rescue, debris removal and funding when a disaster overwhelms the state’s capacity. FEMA could do this quickly because of established federal contracts and its ability to move equipment and responders into the region before a disaster hits.

When things began to fall apart

However, FEMA’s ability to act fast changed after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. The agency was restructured as a unit in the newly formed Department of Homeland Security. But the Department of Homeland Security’s focus was on terrorism and law enforcement, not natural disasters.

The loss of autonomy and direct reporting to Congress, unfunded mandates outside the scope of the 1988 Stafford Disaster Relief and Emergency Assistance Act, and major increases in the number of large and complex disasters stretched FEMA’s capabilities.

When Hurricane Katrina hit New Orleans in 2005, FEMA’s response drew widespread criticism. It was slow to deploy people and supplies and lacked enough experienced responders who knew what to do. Decision-makers were not familiar with new national response plans. Further breakdowns in communications and a lack of coordination among agencies led Congress to declare the Hurricane Katrina response a failure of initiative and agility.

FEMA’s reputation improved after the government brought in more experienced leadership and committed to preparedness planning and better response capabilities.

However, the first Trump administration, from 2017 to 2021, reversed those gains. Three different heads of FEMA in four years led to understaffing and conflicting directions.

As Trump took office for the second time in 2025, he and his administration talked about dismantling FEMA and pushing more disaster management to states. Job cuts and resignations at FEMA reduced the number of employees with training and experience vital in disasters. Political appointees to senior roles in the agency and in the Department of Homeland Security lacked emergency management training and experience.

A new policy that all purchases over US$100,000 be personally approved by Homeland Secretary Kristi Noem led to more resignations. For disaster response, a delay in waiting for a signature to work its way up the chain can cost lives.

What now?

Dismantling FEMA and leaving little or no federal coordination of disaster response puts states in a difficult position.

States must balance their budgets every year, and increasingly “rainy day” funds are insufficient to cover unexpected large disasters. As the federal government shifts other financial responsibilities to states, funds will diminish further.

A single disaster can cause hundreds of millions of dollars in damage and require widespread disaster response and then relief efforts. Since 1980, the cumulative cost of weather-related disasters has exceeded $2.9 trillion. With a warming atmosphere producing more intense storms, increasing human and economic harm are likely.

Members of Congress have proposed making FEMA an independent, Cabinet-level agency again. I see some distinct advantages in doing so:

• Fewer management layers would enable faster deployment of federal supplies and personnel to assist disaster response.

• A streamlined, more nimble agency could cut red tape for disaster survivors needing assistance, meaning delivering relief funding faster and more equitably.

• If an independent FEMA had responsibility for recovery beyond its current 180-day reimbursement limits, that could improve long-term recovery efforts, especially if Congress provided permanent funding streams and consistent rules and regulations.

The Trump administration’s efforts to dismantle FEMA are shortsighted in my view. Instead, I believe the best move is to restore FEMA as an independent executive agency as it was originally envisioned.

Susan L. Cutter receives funding from the U.S. National Science Foundation.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

The gerrymandering drama in Texas – and beyond – has continued to unfold after Democratic state legislators fled the state. The Democrats want to prevent the Republican-controlled government from enacting a mid-decade gerrymander aimed at giving Republicans several more seats in Congress.

The Texas GOP move was pushed by President Donald Trump, who’s aiming to ensure he has a GOP-controlled Congress to work with after the 2026 midterm elections.

Other Republican states such as Missouri and Ohio may also follow the Texas playbook; and Democratic states such as California and Illinois seem open to responding in kind.

But there are a few factors that make this process more complicated than just grabbing a few House seats. They may even make Republicans regret their hardball gerrymandering tactics, if the party ends up with districts that political scientists like me call “dummymandered.”

Democrats can finally fight back

Unlike at the federal level, where Democrats are almost completely shut out of power, Republicans are already facing potentially consequential retaliation for their gerrymandering attempts from Democratic leaders in other states.

Democrats in California, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom, are pushing for a special election later this year, in which the voters could vote on new congressional maps in that state, aiming to balance out Democrats’ losses in Texas. If successful, these changes would take effect prior to next year’s midterm elections.

Other large Democratic-controlled states, such as Illinois and New York – led by Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Gov. Kathy Hochul, respectively – have also indicated openness to enacting their own new gerrymanders to pick up seats on the Democratic side.

New York and California both currently use nonpartisan redistricting commissions to draw their boundaries. But Hochul recently said she is “sick and tired of being pushed around” while other states refuse to adopt redistricting reforms and gerrymander to their full advantage. Hochul said she’d even be open to amending the state constitution to eliminate the nonpartisan redistricting commission.

It’s unclear whether these blue states will be successful in their efforts to fight fire with fire; but in the meantime, governors like Hochul and Pritzker have welcomed the protesting Democratic legislators from Texas, in many cases arranging for their housing during their self-imposed exile.

Dummymandering

Another possible problem for either party looking to gain some seats in this process stems from greediness.

In responding to Democrats’ continued absence from Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott threatened even more drastic gerrymanders. “If they don’t start showing up, I may start expanding,” Abbott said. “We may make it six or seven or eight new seats we’re going to be adding on the Republican side.”

But Abbott might think twice about this strategy.

Parties that gerrymander their states’ districts are drawing lines to maximize their own advantage, either in state legislatures or, in this case, congressional delegations.

When parties gerrymander districts, they don’t usually try to make them all as lopsided as possible for their own side. Instead, they try to make as many districts as possible that they are likely to win. They do this by spreading groups of supportive voters across several districts so they can help the party win more of these districts.

But sometimes the effort backfires: In trying to maximize their seats, a party spreads its voters too thin and fails to make some districts safe enough. These vulnerable districts can then flip to the other party in future elections, and the opposing party ends up winning more seats than expected.

This phenomenon, commonly referred to as “dummymandering,” has happened before. It even happened in Texas, where Republicans lost a large handful of poorly drawn state legislative districts in the Dallas suburbs in 2018, a strong year for Democrats nationwide.

With Democrats poised for a strong 2026 midterm election against an unpopular president, this is a lesson Republicans might need to pay attention to.

There’s not much left to gerrymander

One of the main reasons dummymandering happens is that there has been so much gerrymandering that there are few remaining districts competitive enough for a controlling party to pick off for themselves. This important development has unfolded for two big reasons.

First, in terms of gerrymandering, the low-hanging fruit is already picked over. States controlled by either Democrats or Republicans have already undertaken pretty egregious gerrymanders during previous regular redistricting processes, particularly following the 2010 and 2020 censuses.

Republicans have generally been more adept at the process, particularly in maximizing their seat shares in relatively competitive states such as Wisconsin and North Carolina that they happen to control.

But Democrats have also been successful in states such as Maryland, where only one Republican serves out of nine seats, despite the party winning 35% of the presidential vote in 2024. In Massachusetts, where Democrats hold all eight seats, Republicans won 37% of the presidential vote in 2024.

There’s also the fact that over the past half-century, “gerrymanderable” territory has become more difficult to find regardless of how you draw the boundaries. That’s because the voting electorate is more geographically sorted between the parties.

This means that Democratic and Republican voters are segregated from each other geographically, with Democrats tending toward big cities and suburbs, and Republicans occupying rural areas.

As a result, it’s become less geographically possible than ever to draw reasonable-looking districts that split up the other party’s voters in order to diminish the opponents’ ability to elect one of their own.

Regardless of how far either party is willing to go, today’s clash over Texas redistricting represents largely uncharted territory. Mid-decade redistricting does sometimes happen, either at the hands of legislatures or the courts, but not usually in such a brazen fashion.

And this time, the Texas attempt could spark chaos and a race to the bottom, where every state picks up the challenge and tries to rewrite their electoral maps – not in the usual once-a-decade manner, but whenever they’re unsatisfied with the odds in the next election.

Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

The Texas House gaveled in and out without a quorum again on Friday, as Republicans grew annoyed with Democratic lawmakers who left the state to prevent a vote on a redistricting bill that President Donald Trump urged them to pass.

Texas House Speaker Dustin Burrows announced at Friday’s session that Democrats would be required to collect their monthly paychecks and per diems in person.

“While the Constitution forbids us from withholding pay, it does not dictate how we issue the pay,” Burrows said.

Texas House Minority Leader Gene Wu scoffed at the threat. “Members of the legislature are paid $600 a month. Foregoing our monthly salary is a far smaller cost than the price of inaction,” he said in a statement.

Republican leaders are also freezing Democrats’ monthly operating budgets. “Absent members must also appear in person” to get approval for travel reimbursements or other House services, said Burrows.

The speaker said the Texas House “has also contacted the sergeant at arms of the Illinois House of Representatives, requesting their direct assistance in returning absent members.”

But that request isn’t making much headway further north. “No member of the Illinois House is responsible for attendance at Texas’ undemocratic sham of session,” said Jon Maxson, director of communications for the Illinois House Speaker.

“We are continuing to explore new avenues to compel a quorum, and will keep pressing forward until the job is done,” Burrows told the members who were in attendance Friday, pointing to the other item on the agenda — disaster relief for floods that plagued the state last month — as a reason to return.

“Every hour you remain away is time stolen from those Texans in need,” he said, referring to the redistricting bill that Republicans strategically attached to flooding relief.

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has called the threats “grandstanding,” saying his state will protect the Texas Democrats and that the civil complaints issued in Texas have no bearing on Illinois.

Friday’s House action came hours after a suburban Chicago hotel complex where Democratic legislators had been staying received a second death threat.

The local police department, in coordination with the Kane County Sheriff’s Office Bomb Squad and the Explosive Detection K-9 Unit, searched the area and found no explosive device, according to a statement. There were 70 guests at the hotel center at the time.

A person close to the Texas Democrats, granted anonymity for security reasons, said they left the hotel after a bomb threat earlier in the week and declined to identify the delegation’s current location.

​Politics

With help from Amira McKee

PRIMARILY INTERESTING: Assemblymember Zohran Mamdani’s resounding primary victory exposed how a Democratic socialist’s ability to dominate across the city, and his 56-43 win over the more moderate Andrew Cuomo has sparked a wave of energy for lefty challenges.

Pro-Cuomo lawmakers state Sen. Jessica Ramos and Assemblymember David Weprin have already drawn challengers, but a host of other low-profile electeds didn’t back Mamdani and saw their constituents vote overwhelmingly in his favor.

Thanks to data published by Sam Hudis and Competitive Advantage Research, Playbook was able to identify 23 Democratic-held legislative districts in the city where Mamdani captured more than 50 percent of the vote in the first round of ranked choice voting.

Five of those districts are occupied by lawmakers who didn’t receive the backing of the Working Families Party in its initial round of endorsements last year and stayed away from the brand of leftist politics that launched Mamdani to the nomination — and they could see the Mamdani momentum topple them next June.

These lawmakers didn’t endorse Mamdani in the Democratic primary — or they backed Cuomo. Four of them represent a cluster of neighborhoods near and along the border of Brooklyn and Queens and one comes from Northern Manhattan.

Support from WFP and the DSA will be key for any left challenger hoping to unseat an incumbent, but the groups told Playbook it’s too early to talk about next year’s primaries.

“The WFP is focused on winning in November, alongside Zohran Mamdani and our other endorsees all around New York,” party spokesperson Sydney Watnick said. “Our number one priority at this time is making sure that working families across the state know and feel that their elected officials are working together to make New York more affordable for everyone.”

Grace Mausser, the co-chair of the city’s Democratic Socialist chapter, told Playbook in a statement, “Currently, our Electoral Working Group is looking at Zohran’s historic victory to see where we can grow our movement across the city. We’ll be hosting several forums this fall to hear from interested candidates, discuss their campaigns among our members, and ultimately our membership will vote on who we should endorse.”

1. Maritza Davila. District 53. 

Zohran vote share: 75%

Primary endorsement: None

First elected: 2013

Nowhere else did Mamdani do better in the first round of voting than in Assemblymember Maritza Davila’s district, which includes what some political nerds have dubbed the “Commie Corridor.”

Three quarters of all primary voters ranked him first, with Cuomo nabbing a mere 15 percent of the vote.

Davila didn’t back anyone in the mayoral primary, but she supported lefty Maya Wiley in the 2021 race after rescinding an endorsement for former comptroller Scott Stringer following allegations of sexual harassment he denies.

Her most recent primary challenge was in 2018, when she won with 82 percent of the vote and got the backing of the Working Families Party.

“The voters of Bushwick and Williamsburg have always made their voices clear when it comes to the issues that matter most — the cost of rent, the price of putting food on the table, and being able to afford to get to work or school,” Davila said in a statement. “For years, these neighborhoods have been at the forefront of demanding action on rent stabilization, food costs, and affordable, reliable public transportation. That is why the community came out so strongly for Zohran Mamdani. His message resonated because it speaks to the daily struggles my constituents face and the fights I have taken on throughout my career from delivering summer SNAP dollars, to advocating for rent freezes to working to make the B60 bus free.”

2. Stefani Zinerman. District 56. 

Zohran vote share: 65%

Primary endorsement: None

First elected: 2020

Assemblymember Stefani Zinerman successfully waded off a competitive primary challenge last year, but left-leaning Democrats are already eyeing her Bedford Stuyvesant and Crown Heights district.

Zinerman — a close ally of House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries — became the latest front on the House leader’s war to fend off the DSA in his backyard. He got heavily involved in the race, and it ultimately paid off: Zinerman beat Eon Huntley by six points last year.

Left-leaning City Council Member Chi Ossé, who resides in Zinerman’s district, has already made clear he wants someone to unseat her next year.

“Her pro-landlord lobby, pro-homelessness, pro-displacement agenda has been allowed to ravage our neighborhoods for too long,” he wrote in a lengthy statement. “Her abhorrent policy positions invite a primary challenge.”

Zinerman told Playbook in a statement that she commends Mamdani for his “impressive and inspiring grassroots campaign.”

“In each election, I have earned the trust of voters through hard work, accessibility, and by advancing a legislative and community agenda rooted in equity, accountability, and action,” she said. “Speculating about my political future without acknowledging the depth of my service or the diversity of thought within progressive circles is a disservice to the constituents of the 56th Assembly District and your readers.”

3. Jenifer Rajkumar. District 38. 

Zohran vote share: 64%

Primary endorsement: None

First elected: 2020

To political insiders, Assemblymember Jenifer Rajkumar needs no introduction. She was once famous for her remarkable stanning of our Mayor Eric Adams, but when his political capital nosedived she all but halted her cascade of appearances with the mayor.

This year, she was the moderate challenger hoping to unseat lefty Jumaane Williams for public advocate, and she levied attacks (which some criticized as racist) that he was lazy and absent from his job. Rajkumar — who is also a strong supporter of Israel — lost to Williams by over 50 points but was able to keep her district, which includes parts of Ridgewood, Glendale and Woodhaven.

“In 2020, Assemblywoman Jenifer Rajkumar made history, defeating an 11-year incumbent by the largest margin of any challenger in New York State and tripling voter turnout to a record high,” her spokesperson Jacob Gross said in a statement. “Since then, she has brought that same unmatched energy and results to her district every day, backed by a broad, diverse coalition — and she’s just getting started.”

4. Erik Dilan. District 54. 

Zohran vote share: 65%

Primary endorsement: Cuomo

First elected: 2014

Erik Dilan represents parts of Bushwick and Cypress Hills — and he has experience watching incumbents lose their seats to young, lefty challengers. His father, former state Sen. Marty Dilan, notably became the first sitting state legislator to lose a primary to a DSA member when he was ousted by Julia Salazar in 2018.

The Assemblymember’s most recent primary challenge came from DSA member Samy Olivares in 2022; he squeaked by with 52 percent of the vote. He did not respond to a request for comment.

5. Al Taylor. District 71. 

Zohran vote share: 51%

Primary endorsement: None

First elected: 2017

Harlem saw a swing toward Mamdani, and Assemblymember Al Taylor’s district was no exception.

While he didn’t endorse in the primary, Mamdani announced Thursday that Taylor is supporting him in the general election.

Earlier this year, the Harlem lawmaker stood with other Black electeds to support Eric Adams during the brief period when Gov. Kathy Hochul was considering removing him from office.

“As a longtime colleague in the NYS Assembly, I’ve had the privilege of working alongside Zohran Mamdani on issues that matter most to our communities,” Taylor said in a statement. “I look forward to continuing our work together, including making New York more affordable and our city safer. I am proud to support our Democratic nominee for Mayor and am eager to campaign with him leading up to the November election, doing my part to help create a brighter future for our city.” — Jason Beeferman and Bill Mahoney

SUBPOENA SITUATION: The U.S. attorney’s office in Albany has issued two subpoenas to New York Attorney General Letitia James stemming from a pair of politically charged civil cases against President Donald Trump and the National Rifle Association, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The subpoenas are an escalation of the Trump administration’s scrutiny of James, who has positioned herself as a ferocious opponent of the president. The Department of Justice earlier this year opened a separate investigation into mortgage fraud allegations against James, which she has denied.

The New York Times first reported the subpoenas.

“Any weaponization of the justice system should disturb every American,” James spokesperson Geoff Burgan said in a statement. “We stand strongly behind our successful litigation against the Trump Organization and the National Rifle Association, and we will continue to stand up for New Yorkers’ rights.”

James’ civil fraud case against Trump led to a Manhattan trial judge last year determining the president and other defendants — including his adult sons — inflated his net worth and the value of his real estate properties. The judge ordered Trump to pay a massive financial penalty that, with interest, has ballooned to more than half a billion dollars. Trump is appealing that verdict.

James’ office last year successfully won a fraud case against the NRA, the pro-gun rights advocacy group, with a jury determining its longtime CEO misspent the organization’s funds on expensive perks.

“Investigating the fraud case Attorney General James won against President Trump and his businesses has to be the most blatant and desperate example of this administration carrying out the president’s political retribution campaign,” James’ personal attorney Abbe Lowell said. — Nick Reisman, Josh Gerstein and Erica Orden 

‘HAPPY 90TH’: New York lawmakers joined the AARP to celebrate Social Security’s 90th anniversary today. The milestone comes at a perilous moment for the state’s social safety net, as the Empire State’s social service agencies brace for deep federal funding cuts in the Republican-led “One Big Beautiful Bill.”

Vulnerable GOP Rep. Mike Lawler attended one AARP event today in the Hudson Valley’s Tarrytown. Lawler is a high-priority target for Democrats seeking to retake the House majority next year and he’s faced protests in his district over cuts to social service programs in the Republican megabill.

But Lawler was greeted diplomatically today and focused his brief remarks on efforts to bolster area Social Security offices and how the megabill benefits seniors.

“I am proud of the fact that as part of the tax bill, we were able to pass a $6,000 senior deduction, which will help offset Social Security taxes that is vital for our seniors who are living on a fixed income,” he said.

It was a far cry from the combative “Morning Joe” interview he had earlier in the day, where host Joe Scarborough pressed him on the law’s impact on Medicaid and district hospitals. Lawler accused hospital representatives of “parroting” talking points.

Democratic Rep. Ritchie Torres joined a related AARP event in the Bronx today, telling the small crowd that he is “a lifelong ally in the fight for social security.”

“For me, there is no greater responsibility for the federal government and for America than to protect Social Security for the present and future generation of older Americans,” Torres said.

Torres didn’t directly criticize the megabill or his Republican colleagues in his address, but said “the top one percent does not pay their fair share into Social Security” — a pointed nod to the partisan debate. — Amira McKee and Emily Ngo

— QUEENS BOYS: Trump and Cuomo’s have crossed paths in their personal and professional lives several times before. (The New York Times)

— ONE WAY STREET: Mamdani has voiced support for Democratic Rep. Mikie Sherrill in her bid for governor of New Jersey, but the moderate is keeping her distance. (POLITICO Pro)

— GET OUT: The new Brooklyn headquarters for Adams’ reelection campaign has an outstanding vacate order. (THE CITY)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics