Category: Politics

With help from Amira McKee

Mary Jobaida is a Bangladeshi-born, Muslim mother of three who wants to be the newest member of the state Legislature.

Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani hasn’t been elected mayor yet. But if — or when — he becomes Gracie Mansion’s newest resident, his Assembly seat in the left-leaning “Peoples’ Republic of Astoria” will become vacant — and Jobaida wants to fill it.

Jobaida touts her membership with the Democratic Socialists of America and says she wants to stand up to ICE, make CUNY, SUNY, pre-k and public transportation free, and even decriminalize the theft of food by hungry New Yorkers.

“It’s actually a waste of money, waste of resources and hurtful to people,” she said, noting that “it’s not practical” to arrest someone for stealing nourishment.

Running for the seat, she said, was arranged by God: “I was not going to run against Zohran Mamdani, for sure, because we need progressive elected officials here, but I say it’s like it’s planned by God and accepted by people,” she said, recounting how the district’s lines were redrawn two years ago to include her residence.

The Queens Democratic Party may have other ideas. If Mamdani — who currently leads mayoral polls — is sworn in as mayor on Jan. 1, a special election would have to be called by Gov. Kathy Hochul by Jan. 11 and would likely take place in mid- to late-February.

That would mean the Democratic, Republican and potentially Working Families Party organizations could select their own candidate to run in a special. As City & State reported, the Queens Democrats might jump at the opportunity to replace Mamdani with a more moderate candidate.

Jobaida, who has already started contacting donors, canvassing and gathering volunteers for her bid, is one of the first candidates to emerge amid a wave of leftist energy that’s engulfed the city since Mamdani’s win. She has a website and told Playbook she will officially launch her campaign later this month.

Last month, Assemblymember Jessica González-Rojas announced she would primary state Sen. Jessica Ramos, an Andrew Cuomo foe turned ally. And Mamdani organizer Mahtab Khan registered Monday to run against Queens Assemblymember David Weprin.

One Democratic Party insider told Playbook that discussions around filling Mamdani’s seat aren’t expected to occur in earnest until the SOMOS conference in Puerto Rico — where politicos, lobbyists and policymakers fly to the Caribbean to rub elbows and drink rum in the days immediately after the general election.

The Working Families Party did not respond to repeated requests for comment on whether it would pick a candidate — like Jobaida — to run for the seat on its ballot line. The co-chair of the city’s Democratic Socialists of America chapter told Playbook the party will be hosting “several forums this fall to hear from interested candidates” before its membership votes on whom it wants to endorse.

And Mamdani and Jobaida haven’t spoken yet, though Jobaida plans to speak with him “very soon.”

Jobaida is about 45 years old. She was born in a rural village in Bangladesh that never recorded her birthdate and arrived to this country shortly after 9/11 with a “pretty messed-up education from Bangladesh,” she said.

She attended community college before enrolling in NYU on a scholarship. She got a start in political organizing in 2007 for Barack Obama’s presidential campaign and then worked on Bill Thompson’s mayoral bid. She has taught kindergarten as a teacher in public school classrooms. She also handled constituent services for Jessica Ramos’ office (though she’s not sure if she’ll vote for her former boss yet).

In 2020, Jobaida mounted a primary challenge against longtime incumbent Kathy Nolan in Queens’ 37th Assembly District and lost by just 1,500 votes. After Mamdani’s primary win, Jobaida said she received calls and visits from community leaders, telling her, “You cannot sit quiet; you have to run for this seat.”

“I believe I’m going to win this special election,” Jobaida told Playbook. “If it is special election, it’s sealed. I believe it’s going to be a piece of cake.”

Though she believes the country has deep flaws with its criminal justice system and its treatment of the poor, she has immense gratitude for the nation that welcomed her with open arms.

“We are passing a very difficult moment as a country, as a community,” Jobaida said, referencing the recent shooting of a border patrol officer and border czar Tom Homan’s promise to “flood the zone” with ICE agents in its wake.

“Another way of saying it is like labor pain is harder before the childbirth,” she said. “We are going through some very difficult childbirth, labor pain, now, and I’m hopeful that we’re going to see a beautiful America soon.” — Jason Beeferman

BEHIND THE NUMBERS: Adams unveiled a whopping figure at his housing presser in Brooklyn today: 426,800.

That’s the total number of housing units he says his administration has created, preserved or planned over the course of his tenure.

For New Yorkers looking around and wondering why, despite this influx, finding an affordable apartment still feels like competing in the Hunger Games, the operative word is “planned.”

Planned units — which include projections from rezonings, some of which aren’t even yet approved — account for nearly half of the total sum.

Those 197,000 projected homes include the yet-to-be-seen fruits of the mayor’s wide-ranging City of Yes blueprint, neighborhood plans like the yet-to-be-approved rezoning of Long Island City, private rezonings, housing RFPs and other projections.

Many of these initiatives rely on the whims of the private sector, and development decisions that are based on myriad economic factors outside of the city’s control.

“Everything is dependent on the real estate market more generally, everything we do,” Kim Darga, deputy commissioner for development at HPD, said during a briefing on the numbers.

“The mixed-income programs are very dependent also on the greater climate in which we are operating, so what happens with interest rates could drive what happens, what happens with tariffs could impact what happens,” she continued.

Adams nonetheless touted the 426,800-unit figure as far surpassing previous mayors’ housing totals and crowned his administration as “the most pro-housing” in city history. — Janaki Chadha

POT PROBLEMS: Gov. Kathy Hochul said her administration will support cannabis businesses that were incorrectly granted licenses by the state.

“It’s a major screw-up,” the governor told reporters today. “When I found out about it I was angry to say the least.”

Some 150 businesses were found to have been granted licenses for storefronts that are illegally located after regulators mistakenly measured how close they were to schools.

Hochul said she explored an executive order to fix the problem, but instead determined a more durable solution is a change in the law. She blamed the prior leadership at the Office of Cannabis Management for the error.

“I’ll protect these businesses,” she said, while adding that “we need to get the law changed to have a fix.”

State lawmakers, including influential Democrats such as Senate Finance Chair Liz Krueger, have signaled support for changing the law so the retailers can stay put.

In a statement, the Office of Cannabis Management downplayed a report from Spectrum News that found the state knew about the issue for a month before alerting business owners.

“OCM notified impacted applicants and licensees within days of confirming the issue and identifying the scope of redress opportunities,” the office’s spokesperson, Taylor Randi, said in a statement. She added that its acting director, Felicia Reid, began reviewing dispensaries’ compliance “over the past year.”

OCM has also scrambled to dispel reports that dispensaries with locations too close to schools will have to close up shop. Randi said that as long as existing businesses properly file their applications for a renewal, they will be allowed to remain open until legislators come back to Albany to fix the problem. — Nick Reisman and Jason Beeferman

ICE’D OUT WITH AN APPOINTMENT: The Trump administration’s response to a lawsuit filed this week by House members barred from inspecting migrant detention facilities has revolved around the Democrats making unannounced visits.

But lawmakers in New York have sought access both announced and unannounced. Rep. Dan Goldman requested an appointment in June and was still denied entry to the 10th floor of 26 Federal Plaza in lower Manhattan. Democratic lawmakers have simultaneously cited their authority to conduct oversight without giving advance notice of “detention facilities holding individuals in federal immigration custody.”

The 67-page lawsuit filed Wednesday in federal court in Washington includes Goldman and Adriano Espaillat as plaintiffs. It references new DHS guidelines that congressional Democrats say infringe on their authority, including the need for seven days’ notice ahead of a visit.

In June, Goldman’s team emailed Immigration and Customs Enforcement staff a request for an appointment nine days before he and Rep. Jerry Nadler came to 26 Federal Plaza amid reports of unsafe conditions. They still were denied access.

The reason, according to DHS? The 10th floor of the building is a processing, not a detention, facility.

“These members of Congress could have just scheduled a tour,” Department of Homeland Security Assistant Secretary Tricia McLaughlin said earlier this week in a statement reacting to the legal complaint by 12 members of Congress.

McLaughlin was asked again today on Fox News about the lawsuit and why lawmakers “think that they can just show up announced.”

“Exactly, this is about political theater,” she said in response. “This isn’t oversight.”

Goldman, Espaillat, Nadler and Rep. Nydia Velázquez have said migrants are being held for several days there in unsafe conditions as revealed in videos. And they have said they would use every tool to shine light on the treatment of migrants as President Donald Trump escalates his deportation agenda. — Emily Ngo

LET ’EM OFF EASY: Turkish construction executive Erden Arkan should be sentenced to only one year probation after giving illegal straw donations to Adams’ campaign, his lawyer argued in a memo Friday while denying Arkan had any coordination with the Turkish government.

Arkan, the co-founder of KSK Construction Group, pleaded guilty in January. His lawyer, Jonathan Rosen, said the federal probation office recommended that he receive only a year’s probation and no prison time.

Arkan “did not ‘coordinate’ his decision to use straw donors, the scheme at issue in this case, with the Turkish Consulate or any Turkish official,” despite what prosecutors alleged, Rosen wrote. A Turkish Consulate official invited Arkan to a meeting where he met Adams, but the decision to give illegal straw donations in the names of his employees came only after Arkan tried and failed to solicit donations legally from business contractors, who largely refused to give to Adams.

“Fearing embarrassment from the now impending fundraiser, Erden pivoted to a new strategy,” Rosen explained.

Rosen also argues that federal prosecutors were using Arkan to get to Adams, and he should be let off now that Adams’ case has been dropped. “The government’s characterization of Eric Adams as a ‘tainted prosecution’ … calls into question any bona fide federal interest in Mr. Arkan’s continued prosecution in federal court,” he wrote, quoting former Trump administration Department of Justice official Emil Bove’s letter.

A spokesperson for the Southern District of New York did not immediately respond to a request for comment. — Jeff Coltin

— FAKED SIGNATURES: Mayor Eric Adams’ reelection campaign submitted forged petition signatures in an effort to get on the November ballot as an independent candidate. (Gothamist)

— TALL ORDER: The Department of Education approved close to $750,000 in catering spending at a single Brooklyn restaurant in the fiscal year 2025. (amNewYork)

— HEALTH CUTS: Federal funding cuts to Medicaid could worsen New York’s nursing shortage. (City & State)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics

MADISON, Wisconsin — A group of Democratic governors is urging its colleagues to get tough in countering Republican-backed efforts to gerrymander Texas’ congressional districts.

“It’s incumbent upon Democrat governors, if they have the opportunity, to respond in kind,” outgoing Kansas Gov. Laura Kelly told reporters at a Democratic Governors Association meeting Friday. “I’m not a big believer in unilateral disarmament.”

The advice from Kelly, who chairs the DGA, came two days after Texas Republicans proposed congressional lines that would create five GOP-friendly House districts ahead of next year’s midterms. Democrats need only to net three seats to regain control of the lower chamber.

Kelly didn’t cite California Gov. Gavin Newsom by name, but he is the most high profile, and likeliest, example of a Democrat considering a counteroffensive remapping effort to squeeze more seats from a blue state. On Thursday, Newsom said he’d seek a November special election to have voters approve a new House map that would boost Democrats’ numbers. It’s an expensive and potentially perilous gamble that his Democratic colleagues throughout the country appear to be backing — a notably more aggressive posture for the party.

Various mid-decade redistricting efforts could launch a partisan arms race, as the parties look to redraw competing congressional maps to their own advantages. Democrats face a tougher path, as several blue states are bound by independent redistricting commissions and state constitutions, which would prevent them from quickly remaking maps. By contrast, discussions are already underway in several other Republican-controlled states that could follow Texas’ lead, including Missouri, Indiana and Florida.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz acknowledged there’s “validity” to concerns that Republicans might gain even more seats, should redistricting wars escalate.

But, Walz and Kelly said, “there’s a bigger risk in doing nothing.”

“We can’t just let this happen and act like it’s fine, and hope that the courts fix it,” Kelly said. “We have no idea, quite honestly, at this point, what the courts might do, but by virtue of us responding in kind, we do send a message. We’re not going to take this line down.”

Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers, who campaigned on ending partisan gerrymandering, called Trump’s requests for new maps “so un-American.” He nonetheless echoed Kelly’s call for Democrats to respond, adding when “you’re up against the wall, you have to do whatever you can to stop it.”

Evers recently announced he will not seek another term, rendering the race to replace him a top-tier gubernatorial contest in one of the most politically divided states.

Kelly, Walz, Evers and several other governors, including Andy Beshear of Kentucky and Daniel McKee of Rhode Island, appeared together at the DGA press conference here, where they attacked President Donald Trump’s megabill.

Andrew Howard contributed reporting. 

​Politics

President Donald Trump’s first term saw a record-high rate of turnover among his Cabinet members and chief advisers. Trump’s second term has, to date, seen far fewer Cabinet departures.

But some political commentators have observed that the president this time around has primarily appointed loyal advisers who will not challenge him.

As Thomas Friedman pointed out in The New York Times on June 3, 2025, “In Trump I, the president surrounded himself with some people of weight who could act as buffers. In Trump II, he has surrounded himself only with sycophants who act like amplifiers.”

As a scholar of Greco-Roman antiquity, I have spent many years studying the demise of truth-telling in periods of political upheaval. Spanning the period from 27 B.C.E. to 476 C.E., the Roman Empire still offers insights into what happens to political leaders when they interpret possibly helpful advice as dissent.

Particularly telling is the case of Nero, Rome’s emperor from 54 to 68 C.E., who responded to a disastrous fire in 64 with extreme cruelty and self-worship that did nothing to help desperate citizens.

Suppressing honest advice under Nero

Rome’s first emperor, Augustus, established a handpicked circle of advisers – called the consilium principis in Latin, meaning emperor’s council – to give a republican look to his autocratic regime. Augustus became the emperor of Rome in 27 B.C.E. and ruled over the empire, which stretched from Europe and North Africa to the Middle East at its peak, until his death in 14 C.E.

Augustus wanted to hear what others thought about the empire’s needs and his policies. At least some of Augustus’ advisers were bold enough to assert themselves and risk incurring his displeasure. Some, such as Cornelius Gallus, paid for their boldness with their own lives, while others, such as Cilnius Maecenas, managed to push their political agendas in softer ways that allowed them to maintain their influence.

But the Roman emperors who came after Augustus were either less skilled at maintaining a republican facade, or less interested in doing so.

Nero was the last of the emperors from the noble Julio-Claudian dynasty in ancient Rome at its peak of power. Historians who describe Nero’s rise and fall from power describe the first five years of his reign, or the quinquennium neronis in Latin, as a period of relative calm and prosperity for the empire.

Because Nero was just 16 years old when he acceded to power, he was assigned advisers to guide his policies. Their opinions carried significant weight.

But five years into his reign, chafing at their continued oversight, Nero began to purge these advisers from his life, via execution, forced suicide and exile.

Nero instead collected a small cadre of self-interested enablers who derived power for themselves by encouraging their leader’s delusions, such as his desire to project himself as the incarnation of the sun god, Apollo.

The single most unspeakably corrupt and nefarious of these preferred advisers was Ofonius Tigellinus. Tigellinus had caught Nero’s eye early in 62 by urging the senate to convict a Roman magistrate of treason for having composed poems that he deemed insulting to the emperor. Later that year, Tigellinus was appointed the head of the emperor’s personal army.

As praetorian prefect, Tigellinus was charged not only with protecting Nero from physical harm, but also with crafting and guarding the leader’s public image. Tigellinus urged Nero to stage an ongoing series of public spectacles – like theatrical performances and athletic competitions – that featured him as a divine ruler and a god on Earth.

Up in flames

It was likely at Tigellinus’ urging that, in the aftermath of the great fire of 64 that raged for six days in Rome, Nero staged an exorbitant garden party where Christians were soaked in flammable oils and lit as human torches to illuminate a decadent late-night feast.

But, try as he might, Nero couldn’t outrun the fire and its aftermath by indulging in clever cruelties. Huge swathes of the city had been razed by the fire. Thousands of citizens lacked clothing. They were hungry, displaced and homeless.

For answers, the fire’s countless victims looked to Nero, their earthly Apollo, for help. But they did not encounter a sympathetic leader sweeping in to address their needs. Instead, they found a man desperate to place blame on others – in this case, foreigners from the east.

In order to squelch rumors that Nero had lit the fire, Tigellinus’ army unit rounded up Christians, falsely blamed them for starting the fire and executed them.

But this move just showcased Nero’s failure to focus on the dire needs of the poor, the very people who worshipped him. Instead, he sought to rise above the ashes by doubling down on his divine pretensions.

Once the rubble left by the fire was cleared away, Nero built a magnificent new home for himself. This palace, called the domus aurea in Latin, meaning house of gold, covered more than 120 acres in the heart of Rome. It featured spectacular water fountains, elaborate works of art and, standing tall in the entryway, a 120-foot bronze statue of Nero as the sun god, Apollo.

No truth-teller was there to tell Nero that maybe he shouldn’t rub his people’s noses in their suffering.

Nero’s delusional response to the fire did not put an end to his career, but it did much to hasten its end.

Less than four years later, with armies bearing down on the city, Nero committed suicide. Rome tumbled into civil war.

Self-worship in the Trump era

Trump has long expressed a desire to have his face carved on Mount Rushmore, a national memorial in South Dakota that features the likenesses of legendary American presidents George Washington, Abraham Lincoln, Thomas Jefferson and Theodore Roosevelt.

This dream became a bit closer to reality when Tennessee Representative Andy Ogles in July 2025 urged the Department of the Interior to explore adding Trump’s image to Mount Rushmore – even though such an addition might not be possible because of geological issues.
Trump’s critics have long noted the president’s propensity to focus on himself and his own greatness and power, rather than the needs of citizens.

As far away as the Roman Empire might seem, Nero’s rise and fall offers a lesson in what can happen when honest criticism of a political leader is sidelined in favor of idolatry.

Instead of honest solutions to real problems, what Romans got was a colossal statue that portrayed their leader as a god on Earth.

Kirk Freudenburg does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

Elon Musk gave $5 million to Donald Trump’s super PAC during a dramatic and bitter falling out with the president, new filings show.

The donation to MAGA Inc. was made a month after Musk said he had “done enough” political spending, and he also gave $10 million that same day to help Republicans keep control of Congress.

The contributions came weeks into Musk’s public feud with Trump, as the tech billionaire was slamming Republicans for voting for the megabill that he argued would blow up the deficit. Still, the SpaceX CEO donated $5 million each to the Congressional Leadership Fund, the Senate Leadership Fund and MAGA Inc. on June 27, according to the groups’ filings with the Federal Election Commission on Thursday. Those are the top super PACs supporting the House and Senate Republicans and the Trump political operation.

The next week, the world’s richest man said he would start his own political party.

Musk, who spent $290 million of his own money to boost Trump and other Republicans last year, led the cost-cutting efforts of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency in the first few months of the Trump administration. When he left that role in May, he also suggested he was done with political giving for the time being: “If I see a reason to do political spending in the future, I will do it. I don’t currently see a reason,” he said at the Qatar Economic Forum.

The $5 million donation to the Trump-linked super PAC MAGA Inc. came weeks after Musk had torched Trump on social media, first over policy differences surrounding the president’s megabill, but also in escalating personal attacks. Musk later deleted some posts, but resumed his criticism of Trump, including his administration’s handling of the Jeffrey Epstein files, in July.

Musk’s donations to CLF and SLF were enough to make him the largest known individual donor to the main House and Senate GOP super PACs so far this year, although they reflect only a fraction of the money both raised. Congressional Leadership Fund brought in $32.7 million in the first half of the year, while Senate Leadership Fund raised $26.4 million. MAGA Inc., the pro-Trump super PAC, raised $176 million over the first half of the year.

A spokesperson for the Congressional Leadership Fund said it does not comment on donors. Senate Leadership Fund and Musk did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Thursday.

Musk also poured another $45 million of his own money into his super PAC, America PAC, this spring. That group spent primarily on Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race in April, which Musk was heavily involved in publicly.

Its expenses included $27 million for petition incentives, $12.7 million on campaigning related to the Wisconsin race and three controversial $1 million payments to spokespeople selected for signing Musk’s petition opposing “activist judges.” Musk’s preferred candidate in that Wisconsin race, conservative Brad Schimel, lost by 10 points in what was widely seen as a sign of Musk’s electoral drag on Republicans.

In July, Musk said he would create his own political party, the America Party. But Thursday’s FEC filings, which cover only through the end of June, provide no insight into what that effort might look like.

​Politics

President Donald Trump is raking in cash for his political operation, building up funds that could allow him to continue to be a political kingmaker even as he cannot seek reelection.

The president’s primary super PAC brought in a whopping nearly $177 million in the first half of the year, while his leadership PAC raised $28 million, according to filings submitted to the Federal Election Commission late Thursday.

Those two groups alone reported a combined $234 million cash on hand at the end of June, the filings show — a massive sum. And a separate joint fundraising committee had $12 million more in the bank, much of which will later be transferred to other groups in Trump’s political network.

The Trump-linked groups have largely not begun to deploy that cash, instead building up a war chest the president could use next year in primaries or to boost Republicans’ prospects in the midterms. Trump has already shown substantial interest in the 2026 elections, with the White House intervening to encourage some GOP incumbents to run again, pushing potential challengers out of primary fields and asking Texas Republicans to draw new districts with the hopes of gaining seats.

Having millions of dollars at Trump’s disposal — an unheard of amount for a sitting president who cannot run again — could allow him to become one of the biggest single players in next year’s midterms, alongside longstanding GOP stalwarts like the Congressional Leadership Fund and Senate Leadership Fund. Trump could boost his preferred candidates in GOP primaries, or flood the zone in competitive general election races in an effort to help Republicans keep control of Congress.

Trump has a smattering of political groups. His primary joint fundraising committee, Trump National Committee, spent $17 million on operating expenses while transferring just over $20 million each to the Republican National Committee and Never Surrender. A range of other political groups, including his former campaign committees from his 2016 and 2020 presidential bids, continue to spend relatively small amounts of money and get transfers from older joint fundraising committees, but largely are not involved in building up his cash.

Trump’s primary leadership PAC now is Never Surrender, which was converted from his 2024 campaign committee. It ended June with $38 million cash on hand, after spending $16.8 million, the majority of which was expenses lingering from Trump’s campaign last year.

MAGA Inc., the primary pro-Trump super PAC, reported a whopping $196 million cash on hand, after spending only a few million dollars.

The group, which does not face donation limits, benefited from fundraisers featuring Trump and Vice President JD Vance this spring. It raised money from a range of longtime GOP megadonors and cryptocurrency interests:

• Jeff Yass gave $16 million
• The pro-Trump dark money group Securing American Greatness gave $13.75 million 
• Energy Transfer Partners gave $12.5 million, as did its CEO, Kelcy Warren 
• Foris DAX, Inc., a cryptocurrency-linked entity, gave $10 million
• Blockchain.com, a cryptocurrency company, gave $5 million
• Elon Musk, who has publicly feuded with Trump in recent months, gave $5 million

The super PAC also received some donations made in bitcoin. Trump signed a landmark cryptocurrency bill favored by the industry in June, and his business empire has quickly expanded its crypto interests.

​Politics

Roy Cooper has an early, six-point lead in the North Carolina Senate race, according to the first public poll of the marquee contest.

The Emerson College poll, released Friday morning, found the Democratic former North Carolina governor with 47 percent support to Republican National Committee chair Michael Whatley’s 41 percent. Another 12 percent of voters are undecided.

The North Carolina Senate race — likely between Cooper and Whatley, who have each cleared their respective primary fields — is expected to be one of the most competitive and expensive in 2026. It’s the top offensive target for Democrats, who must net four seats to retake the Senate. In June, North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis declined to run for reelection after clashing with President Donald Trump over his domestic agenda and warning fellow Republicans about the Medicaid cuts in their spending package.

Cooper, who finished his second term in 2024, starts the open race to replace Tillis with stronger name recognition and favorability than Whatley, a first-time candidate. Most voters view Cooper positively, one-third perceive him negatively and just 13 percent are unsure, the poll found.

By contrast, nearly two-thirds of voters do not know or are unsure of Whatley and another 17 percent view him favorably — capturing his challenge to quickly define himself with an electorate that isn’t familiar with him.

Cooper also holds a 19-point edge among independent voters, a significant bloc that supported him during his gubernatorial campaigns. For now, these voters prefer Cooper to Whatley 47 percent to 28 percent.

But in a preview of what will be a tight Senate race in a hyper-partisan environment, voters in purple North Carolina are evenly divided on whom they prefer on the generic congressional ballot: 41.5 percent support would back the Democrat and 41.3 percent would back the Republican.

In the 2028 presidential primary, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg leads among Democratic voters in North Carolina with 17 percent support. Former Vice President Kamala Harris, who opted against a gubernatorial run this week, receives 12 percent, followed by California Gov. Gavin Newsom with 10 percent and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders with 7 percent. Nearly a quarter of the Democratic voters are undecided.

Among Republicans, Vice President JD Vance dominates the GOP primary with 53 percent backing him, compared to 7 percent for Florida Gov. and failed 2024 presidential candidate Ron DeSantis and 5 percent for Secretary of State Marco Rubio.

Emerson College conducted the poll from July 28 through July 30, interviewing 1,000 registered North Carolina voters. It has a 3-point margin of error.

​Politics

Thousands of K-12 students in Detroit consistently miss days of school.

Chronic absenteeism is defined as missing at least 10% of school days – or 18 in a 180-day academic year. In Detroit, chronic absenteeism rose during the COVID-19 pandemic and remains a persistent challenge.

To encourage attendance, the Detroit Public Schools Community District is getting creative. This past year, Michigan’s largest school district awarded US$200 gift cards to nearly 5,000 high schoolers for attending all their classes during a two-week period, and Superintendent Nikolai Vitti also floated the idea of providing bikes to help students get to class. Some district students lack access to reliable transportation.

To understand the consequences of kids regularly missing school, The Conversation U.S. spoke with Sarah Lenhoff, associate professor of education at Wayne State University and director of the Detroit Partnership for Education Equity & Research, an education-focused research collaborative, and Jeremy Singer, an assistant professor of education at Wayne State University. Lenhoff and Singer wrote a book published in March about the socioeconomic drivers of chronic absenteeism in K-12 schools and how policymakers and communities, not just educators, can help.

Is chronic absenteeism the same as truancy?

No. Truancy is how schools have thought about and dealt with student attendance problems since the early days of public education in the United States in the 19th century and is still defined in state law across the country. It focuses on “unexcused” absences and compliance with mandatory school attendance laws. By contrast, chronic absenteeism includes any absence – whether “excused” or “unexcused” – because each absence can be consequential for student learning and development.

Chronic absenteeism is usually defined as missing 10% or more school days. The 10% threshold is somewhat arbitrary, since researchers know that the consequences of missing school accumulate with each day missed. But the specific definition of chronic absenteeism has been solidified in research and by policymakers. Most states now include a measure of chronic absenteeism in their education accountability systems.

How big of a problem is chronic absenteeism in Detroit’s K-12 public schools?

Detroit has among the highest chronic absenteeism rates in the country: more than 50% in recent school years. Prior to the pandemic, the average rate of chronic absenteeism nationwide was about 15%, and it was around 24% in 2024.

In one of our prior studies, we found Detroit’s chronic absenteeism rate was much higher than other major cities – even others with high absenteeism rates such as Milwaukee or Philadelphia.

This is related to the depth of social and economic inequalities that Detroit families face. Compared to other major cities, Detroit has higher rates of poverty, unemployment and crime. It has worse public health conditions. And even its winters are some of the coldest of major U.S. cities. All of these factors make it harder for kids to attend school.

Rates of chronic absenteeism spiked in Detroit during the COVID-19 pandemic, as they did statewide. The Detroit Public Schools Community District has come close to returning to its pre-pandemic levels of absenteeism. The rates were 66% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 62% in the school year right before the pandemic began, 2018-19.

Detroit’s charter schools have struggled more to bring down their chronic absenteeism rates post-pandemic, but the numbers are lower overall – 54% in the 2023-24 school year compared to 36% in 2018-19.

How does missing school affect students?

The connection between attendance and achievement is clear: Students who miss more school on average score worse on reading and math tests. As early as pre-K, being chronically absent is linked to lower levels of school readiness, both academically and behaviorally. By high school, students who miss more school tend to earn lower grades and GPAs and are less likely to graduate.

And it’s not just the absent students who are affected. When more kids in a class miss school regularly, that is associated with lower overall test scores and worse measures of skills such as executive functioning for other students in that class.

Does chronic absenteeism vary by family income or other factors?

Rates of chronic absenteeism are much higher among students from low-income families. In these cases, absenteeism is often driven by factors outside a student’s control such as unstable housing, unreliable transportation, health issues, lack of access to child care, or parents who work nontraditional hours. These challenges make it harder for students to get to school consistently, even when families are deeply committed to education.

School-based factors also influence attendance. Students are more likely to be chronically absent in schools with weaker relationships with families or a less positive school culture. However, even schools with strong practices may struggle if they serve communities facing deep socioeconomic hardship.

Ultimately, we don’t view chronic absenteeism as an issue of student motivation or family values. Rather, we see it as an issue related to the unequal conditions that shape students’ lives.

Does punishing absent kids or their parents work?

Many schools have suspended students for absences, or threatened their parents with fines or jail time. In some cases, families have lost social services due to their children’s chronic absenteeism.

Research shows these strategies are not only ineffective, they can make the problem worse.

For example, we found that when schools respond with punishment instead of support, they often alienate the very students and families who are already struggling to stay connected. Harsh responses can deepen mistrust between families and schools. When absences are treated as a personal failing caused by a lack of motivation or irresponsibility rather than symptoms of deeper challenges, students and parents may disengage further.

Instead, educators might ask: What’s getting in the way of consistent attendance, and how can we help? That shift from blame to understanding can help improve attendance.

What can policymakers, school districts and community organizations do to reduce chronic absenteeism?

Chronic absenteeism is a societal issue, not just a school problem. In other words, we need to recognize that chronic absenteeism is not a problem that schools can solve alone. While educators work to improve conditions within schools, policymakers and community leaders can take responsibility for the broader factors that influence attendance.

This could look like investing more resources and fostering collaboration across sectors such as health care, housing, transportation and social services to better support students and their families. Community organizations can play a role too, offering wraparound services such as mental health care, access to transportation, and after-school programming, all of which can support families. In the meantime, educators can focus on what they can control: strengthening communication with families, building supportive relationships and helping families connect with existing services that can remove attendance barriers.

Sarah Lenhoff receives funding from the Skillman Foundation, the Joyce Foundation, the Kresge Foundation, the William T. Grant Foundation, the American Institutes for Research, and the Urban Institute.

Jeremy Singer does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

​Politics + Society – The Conversation

With help from Amira McKee

‘OUT OF STEP:’ Zohran Mamdani distanced himself from “defund the police” posts he made in 2020, saying today they were made “amidst a frustration that many New Yorkers held at the murder of George Floyd.” He said multiple times that the posts were “clearly out of step” with his current view of policing and his campaign platform.

The Democratic nominee for mayor of New York City was speaking at a press conference held hours after he returned from an 11-day vacation to Uganda.

Mamdani has faced backlash over his past comments critical of the NYPD following the city’s deadliest mass shooting in 25 years, where four people, including an off-duty police officer, were killed in Midtown Manhattan.

“I am not defunding the police; I am not running to defund the police,” Mamdani told reporters today. “Over the course of this race, I’ve been very clear about my view of public safety and the critical role that the police have in creating that public safety.”

There was little the NYPD could have done to stop the shooter, who drove in from out of state and was in public only briefly before he began pulling the trigger. Still, the tragedy has resulted in an outpouring of support for the department and its members, and has raised questions about how Mamdani would lead the force as mayor, POLITICO reports. 

Mamdani is returning to a city where polling shows him as the clear favorite, and he’ll try to maintain that lead through the tumult of a crowded general election in an unpredictable city. His opponents have homed in on his relatively limited political and management experience, and the past few days have served as a test of how the democratic socialist frontrunner would respond to a crisis — and the pressure that entails.

During the news conference, Mamdani stood with the Bangladeshi American Police Association, of which slain NYPD officer Didarul Islam was a member, and building service workers union 32BJ, which represented Aland Etienne, an office security guard who died in the attack.

Like other Democrats, Mamdani placed blame for the shooting on easy access to firearms.

“No matter how strong our gun laws are in this state, they are only as strong as the weakest laws in our nation,” he said. “I echo the call from Governor Hochul for a nationwide ban on assault rifles.”

Mamdani also slammed his opponent Andrew Cuomo for criticizing his prior calls to defund the police in the aftermath of the shooting, saying it was a way for Cuomo to “score such cynical political points.”

“We want to honor the New Yorkers who have been taken from us far too soon,” Mamdani said. “And yet, here we have a former governor calling every reporter he can find to speak about tweets. What kind of leadership is that?”

Cuomo spokesperson Rich Azzopardi said it was fair game.

“I liken that to every time there is a mass shooting, Republicans say it’s not the time to talk gun control,” he said in a statement. “This is very much the time to talk about what our candidates for mayor said then vs. now.” — Jeff Coltin & Jason Beeferman

A LONG FIGHT AHEAD FOR REDISTRICTING AMENDMENT: On the same morning that Texas Republicans unveiled a potential gerrymander to create five new Republican-friendly congressional seats, New York Democrats officially introduced a constitutional amendment that would let them make mid-decade changes to the Empire State’s maps.

But don’t expect any imminent or drastic action in New York, POLITICO Pro reported today. Any amendment couldn’t be approved any earlier than November 2027. That means any new lines wouldn’t take effect until 2028, even if they can avoid legal hiccups and court-ordered stays that spring.

And the new maps would still need to adhere to existing prohibitions on gerrymandering — so don’t expect districts combining Staten Island with Plattsburgh, as you might see in other states.

The amendment is sure to be at the center of an extremely expensive battle at the ballot box if it moves forward. A different proposal to change the redistricting process was defeated as a referendum in 2021 — a year with mayoral races that drove out more Democrats than can be expected in 2027.

“It’s the perfect type of legislation to beat at the ballot box,” state Conservative Party Chair Gerard Kassar said. “Frankly, it’s likely to turn out the vote and help us elect other officials.”

Democrats are hopeful they’ll be better prepared this time around, though.

“I would hope for a campaign from the national party, from the state party, from other interested parties,” Senate Deputy Leader Mike Gianaris said. “This is something with national implications, so I would hope there’d be a huge effort.” — Bill Mahoney

MAP FIGHT: Despite the severely limited menu of options for New York Democrats to redraw House lines before the 2026 midterm elections, Hochul today signaled she’s in ongoing talks over the issue.

In a statement to Playbook, Hochul blasted Texas GOP lawmakers for revising their House lines — a change that will add five additional seats Trump carried by double digits.

“We’re not going to sit by while Donald Trump and Texas Republicans try to steal this nation’s future,” she said. “I’ve been in active talks with local and national leaders, and in the coming days we’ll meet to align on our next move.”

Hochul has spoken with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffires about redistricting in New York, as red states — including Texas and Ohio — move forward with changing their maps this year.

Two state lawmakers have proposed a constitutional amendment that would allow New York to redistrict mid-decade, but such a change would not be in place soon enough to impact the high-stakes House races next year. — Nick Reisman 

CHILD HEALTH CARE ROLLBACK: A new federal policy slated to take effect in 2027 will jeopardize health insurance coverage for more than 750,000 children in New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul said today.

The Democratic governor bashed President Donald Trump’s administration in a statement, calling the rollback of programs that provide continuous Medicaid coverage a “misguided policy” that “threatens the progress we’ve made in keeping young children connected to care,” POLITICO Pro’s Katelyn Cordero reports. 

The federal government last year approved New York’s proposal for continuous Medicaid and Child Health Plus coverage for enrollees up to the age of 6. The state is now required to roll back that policy by 2027.

New York’s continuous coverage policy was implemented this year under a federal waiver. It requires continued access to health care for children regardless of changes to family income.

The waiver will not be revoked, but the Hochul administration received a letter from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services indicating that it will not be renewed in 2027.

“We will use every tool at our disposal to protect access to Medicaid and Child Health Plus for the more than 750,000 young children across New York State who depend on it for a healthy start in life,” Hochul said in her statement. — Katelyn Cordero

QUIT POLITICKIN’: Senate Republicans are decrying one of Hochul’s commissioners for using government resources to promote attacks against Republicans in D.C.

“We understand Governor Hochul is gearing up for a tough re-election, but the use of state resources to amplify partisan messaging must cease immediately,” the GOP state lawmakers wrote in a letter to Barbara Guinn, commissioner of the Office of Temporary and Disability Assistance.

Guinn, who was appointed by Hochul to lead the office in 2023, penned an op-ed with Democratic state Sen. Roxanne Persaud criticizing the GOP’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act.” Her agency — which is tasked with overseeing food, heat and cash assistance programs — then shared the opinion piece on its government website.

“If you are struggling to put enough food on the table and also struggling to find gainful employment, Republicans in Washington, including seven representing New York State, say you are on your own,” Guinn wrote in the piece, adding that the federal bill “cruelly slashes SNAP in ways that were previously unthinkable.”

In a separate letter sent to state lawmakers under government letterhead, she also decried how “actions by the federal GOP will likely lead to limited benefit access,” she wrote.

While Hochul freely uses her taxpayer-funded communications team to slam Republicans in Congress and the White House, many unelected commissioners in Albany steer clear of partisan attacks.

Senate Republicans are arguing that Guinn crossed a line: “These talking points are best left to the Democratic National Committee, not parroted by a state agency that performs vital public service,” they wrote in their letter.

Guinn’s office did not respond to a request for comment. — Jason Beeferman

— ALL AGAINST MAMDANI: Five separate groups have emerged, all planning to raise millions of dollars to defeat Mamdani. (The New York Times)

— OLD VS. NEW: 26-year-old Liam Elkind is launching a primary challenge to 78-year-old Rep. Jerry Nadler, saying he no longer has the energy nor mindset for the job. (CNN)

— BRONX CASINO BID IS ALIVE: The mayor vetoed a measure from the City Council that some thought permanently ended the chances of a Bronx casino. (POLITICO Pro)

Missed this morning’s New York Playbook? We forgive you. Read it here.

​Politics