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Brian Kemp’s political strength was already going to be tested in Tuesday’s Georgia runoffs. Then President Donald Trump made his move.

Kemp had spent months throwing his full support and political network behind Derek Dooley, a political neophyte and former football coach, in a quest to unseat Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff — a seat Kemp himself passed on running for, to the disappointment of national Republicans who saw him as the best candidate to win.

It was a major political gambit, and one that relies on the governor’s popularity and ability to get Dooley over the finish line against a MAGA loyalist in Rep. Mike Collins and then against a strong Democratic incumbent. Early Sunday morning, Trump raised the stakes: He finally got off the sidelines and endorsed Collins, turning the Senate runoff into something of a proxy war between two of the most influential figures in Georgia politics.

Hours later, Kemp stepped into the other marquee contest in the state, endorsing Lt. Gov. Burt Jones — the Trump-backed Republican — to succeed him in the governor’s mansion.

Now, thanks to the late slate of endorsements, the governor finds himself both at odds with an increasingly influential president in the Senate race and aligned with him in the governor’s race — teeing up a complicated trial of his influence.

Tuesday’s runoff will determine the viability of Kemp’s brand of Republican politics, one willing to look beyond the conservative red meat of a MAGA Republican primary with an eye toward winning back independent and swing voters in the general election. Even when that means he’s at odds with Trump’s wishes.

The governor’s race is complicated further by billionaire Rick Jackson’s flood of spending, which quickly transformed him from a little-known candidate to one of the contest’s two leading contenders.

“Both [Jones and Dooley] face opponents with strong outside support or appeal, so the results will show how much pull Kemp still has in the Georgia GOP,” said one Georgia Republican unaffiliated with either race granted anonymity to speak candidly. “Demonstrating [his] pull will be key to any Kemp case for 2028, which would necessarily include proving he takes Georgia off the table for us as a battleground state.”

In a sign of his clout in the state, the candidates — with the exception of Collins — all featured the popular governor in campaign runoff ads, drawing him into the mix even before he officially endorsed.

“Everything I’m doing is to make sure we win in November. I’ve been very clear about that,” Kemp said at a Monday morning press conference with Dooley. “Making sure that we have the right people at the top of the ticket who can win.”

Republicans wanted Kemp to run. Instead, he put his political capital behind Dooley.

Tuesday’s runoffs come at a pivotal moment in which Kemp has largely sidestepped questions about his future, but is seen both in Georgia and nationally as a potential 2028 presidential contender as the Republican Party makes its first steps into a post-Trump future. Kemp’s approval rating hovers around 60 percent — roughly 20 points higher than Trump’s in a rapidly evolving battleground.

Many Georgia Republicans had hoped that Kemp, a popular figure, would run for the Senate seat himself — a nod to his unique strength in a finicky state, where candidates have to win with a broad coalition of voters to succeed in statewide races like he did during his reelection in 2022.

“If Kemp had jumped into this race, it would already be a seat that Republicans were counting as a flip,” said Ryan Mahoney, a Georgia-based Republican strategist and former aide to Kemp.

Instead, Republicans got a crowded field and a primary marked by bitter intraparty fighting as Ossoff kept his powder dry and amassed a significant war chest ahead of a competitive general election. The GOP’s original bullishness on flipping the blue seat turned into frustration and a feeling that Ossoff was proving more and more difficult to vanquish.

Before Trump’s last minute foray into the race, the Republican Senate contest had been marked by Kemp’s hands-on presence for Dooley, who the governor has repeatedly touted as an electable political outsider who could build the big-tent coalition needed to win. Kemp appeared at dozens of campaign stops across the state and activated his deep network of donors for his longtime friend and hand-picked candidate.

Dooley was still polling in a consistent third place for the majority of the primary — but Kemp continued to appear with him across the state, and Hardworking Americans Inc., a Kemp-aligned federal PAC, went on to spend $2 million on ads, including one featuring the governor giving a straight-to-camera pitch for Dooley. The candidate ended up finishing in a solid second place, besting Rep. Buddy Carter to make the runoff — a significant win for Kemp’s political machine.

And while Collins dominated in rural areas of the state, and Carter in his southwestern congressional district around Savannah, Dooley’s base of support emerged from the all-important metro Atlanta area.

“Dooley clearly had momentum, and that momentum showed up at the ballot box,” Mahoney said. “That momentum was fueled by Brian Kemp, and, more specifically, Brian Kemp to camera pushing people to vote for Derek.”

But there are looming questions over Kemp’s ability to pull Dooley across the finish line in the second round of voting.

Collins had already secured support from several MAGA-aligned groups before Trump left his mark on the contest, including the powerful Club for Growth and Turning Point Action.

Trump’s endorsement put the final stamp on that dynamic of MAGA vs. Kemp, solidifying the House Republican as the carrier of the populist right’s mantle in the race and putting the president in direct opposition to the governor.

“Mike is a special guy, a special congressman, a special person, and so I’d like to have everybody go out and get out and vote for this man. We love Georgia,” Trump said in a tele-rally with Collins late on Monday afternoon from France ahead of his appearance at the G7. “Mike is so important.”

But Trump’s late support for Collins comes with its own warning signs, harkening back to an embarrassing loss from earlier this month, when Rep. Randy Feenstra (R-Iowa) came up short in his run for governor after winning the president’s support just a handful of days prior.

Early voting had already closed by the time Trump endorsed Collins on Sunday, creating a narrow window for him to capitalize on the president’s coveted backing.

Trump and Kemp align in governor’s race — against an influx of cash

While the Senate contest pits the president against Kemp, the two will also be tested in the vastly different race for governor.

That contest will show whether the two leaders’ combined influence can outmatch the power of over $100 million in spending from Jackson, whose deluge of cash has upended the contest since his splashy entrance in February.

Kemp had loomed large over the contest, as both candidates tried to tie themselves to the popular governor. Shortly after the May primary, Jackson aired an ad that appeared to imply he had won the governor’s support. That ad backfired, contributing to Kemp’s decision on Sunday to back Jones, according to a person familiar with the governor’s thinking and granted anonymity to speak candidly about the endorsement.

A spokesperson for Kemp referred POLITICO to the governor’s press conference with Jones, during which he said lieutenant governor was the only pick “to make sure that Georgia remains the best place to live, work, and raise a family.” Jones had “been a trusted ally in that effort, being there every step of the way,” Kemp said.

Kemp’s decision to weigh in on the race came together in fairly quick succession. The lieutenant governor’s team was told around lunchtime on Sunday that Kemp was preparing to endorse Jones, according to a person familiar with the conversation between the two camps, granted anonymity to discuss campaign matters. Kemp’s backing was made public later that afternoon in a lengthy statement posted to social media.

Jones had already secured the president’s support almost as soon as he got into the race and has long touted his close relationship with the president. But it was Kemp’s backing that he said could cement his runoff win and propel him into the general election.

“I can’t say enough about how appreciative [Georgia Second Lady Jan Jones] and I are for this endorsement from the governor and the first lady. We think that this is exactly what’s going to put us over the top,” Jones said in a press conference Monday alongside the governor.

The candidate also released an ad on Monday featuring the governor and first lady Marty Kemp praising him as a “strong ally” and highlighting their partnership over the last several years.

“The real endorsement is tomorrow. It’s with the people of this state. And they’re going to decide who they want at the top of the ticket,” Kemp said at his morning appearance with Dooley.

​Politics