Month: May 2026

Louisiana Sen. Bill Cassidy is on the ropes.

The Republican is fighting for his political life as he fends off two primary challengers capitalizing on MAGA outrage over his 2021 impeachment vote against President Donald Trump. In Louisiana, there’s a growing belief that Cassidy wont be able to overcome strong headwinds to even nab a run-off spot in the primary election on Saturday, according to nearly a dozen interviews with GOP officials, lawmakers and strategists in the state.

Should Cassidy finish third and lose outright, it would mark a stunning defeat for the two-term incumbent and herald a significant win for Trump in his grudge match against Republicans who cross him.

“When it comes to stabbing Trump in the back with that vote to impeach, the memories are very long,” said Kevin Berken, the Jefferson Davis Parish GOP chair, who opposes Cassidy in the race and is leaning toward supporting Fleming.

Most polling puts Cassidy in third place, behind Trump-endorsed Rep. Julia Letlow and State Treasurer John Fleming, another MAGA candidate. Cassidy was ostracized by the state Republican Party following his impeachment vote. Trump has slammed him as “very disloyal,” urging Louisiana Republicans to vote him out.

The Louisiana GOP primary is the latest stop in Trump’s revenge tour this month, with a number of his biggest enemies fighting for reelection. It began in Indiana, where the president and his allies successfully ousted five state lawmakers as punishment for refusing to redraw congressional lines in favor of the GOP. After Cassidy’s race, Kentucky Rep. Thomas Massie is up next with his primary on May 19.

Still, in Louisiana, Trump hasn’t done much to boost his chosen candidate.

On Saturday, he reupped his support for Letlow, saying “she is a winner who will NEVER let you down” in a post on Truth Social. But beyond a few posts online, Trump has been largely silent, despite pushing her into the race in January with his endorsement. He continues to withhold his massive $300 million-plus MAGA Inc. war chest and did not make an appearance on her behalf during the campaign.

The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Trump, in his Saturday Truth Social post, took another swipe at Cassidy: “He turned around and voted to IMPEACH me for something that has now proven to be total ‘bullshit!'”

“That is not something I think about,” Cassidy told POLITICO in a brief interview Saturday. “That is a decision I made five years ago. What I think about is the present and the future of my state. If somebody wants to focus on that, if my opponent is focused on that, she’s thinking about five years ago. I’m thinking about five years from now.”

The Cassidy campaign has said it is well aware of the challenges confronting them, but they remain confident about the senator’s chances given his record in Congress. Cassidy campaign adviser Mark Harris said this week that their data shows the incumbent will likely not finish first but is in a good position to qualify for the run-off, thanks in part to a high number of non-party voters casting ballots in Louisiana’s closed primary.

“It’s sort of Julia’s to lose in the first round,” Harris said. “Our data indicates we have a very strong chance to put together a winning coalition, and then [win] in the run-off.”

But Cassidy’s history of frustrating MAGA goes beyond just the impeachment vote. He rankled the MAGA faithful — and the emerging Make America Healthy Again coalition — by sharply questioning Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on vaccines during his Senate confirmation. He further angered the MAHA movement by helping block the nomination of health influencer Casey Means to be U.S. Surgeon General.

His actions have pushed the Kennedy-aligned MAHA PAC to pledge spending $1 million on Letlow’s behalf as they seek to oust Cassidy — though the influence of its spending remains to be seen.

“MAHA issues are in fact central to this race and to races all around the country, where in many cases they poll higher than most other issues for voters, especially for the all-important undecided voters,” MAHA PAC leader Tony Lyons previously told POLITICO in a text. “It’s true that Big Pharma and big food would like to convince voters otherwise, but Julia Letlow is a strong insurgent candidate and she will win.”

Nonpartisan polling shows Cassidy trailing both Fleming and Letlow, with an Emerson College Survey from late April putting him at 21 percent support, behind Fleming at 28 percent and Letlow at 27 percent.

“What we’ve known all along is now becoming clear to everyone watching this race: Julia Letlow has the support, the momentum, and the trust of Louisiana Republicans,” said Katherine Thordahl, Letlow campaign spokesperson, in a statement. “Unfortunately for Bill Cassidy, Louisianans have never forgotten Bill Cassidy’s vote to convict President Trump, which remains the defining contrast in this race.”

Cassidy’s path to a run-off isn’t completely closed.

He’s benefitting from the anti-Cassidy MAGA vote being split between Letlow and Fleming, who has summoned strong grassroots support throughout his campaign. Fleming has declared himself the most conservative candidate in the race, pointing to his record as a member of the House Freedom Caucus. He also served as a White House aide during Trump’s first administration as deputy chief of staff.

“Neither one of them can claim a stronger conservative voting record,” Fleming said in an interview. “Between them, I stand alone so I think that’s the real driver of my lead on this.”

Berken said in an interview he was leaning toward supporting Fleming due to his conservative credentials. “I know what I get with John Fleming, and even though President Trump endorsed Julia, I think he did that at Governor Landry’s behest,” he said, referring to GOP Gov. Jeff Landry’s campaign to elect Letlow to the Senate.

Letlow and Fleming have spent the final days of the campaign attacking each other, a sign that they expect to face each other in the run-off — or that they believe Cassidy may end up pulling off a surprising rise if they continue to split the MAGA vote.

Cassidy, meanwhile, continues to train all of his fire on Letlow in the home stretch. The senator has attempted to cast her as insufficiently conservative, nicknaming her “Liberal Letlow” and hammering her for past comments she made in support of diversity initiatives in higher education. Letlow has since disavowed those programs, arguing they have been hijacked by the left.

By going so hard against Letlow, “Cassidy’s committing murder suicide,” said one Louisiana GOP strategist who’s unaffiliated in the race, granted anonymity to speak freely. The strategist predicted that Fleming would emerge with the most votes.

Letlow, in response to negative campaigning from both of her opponents, has made Trump’s endorsement the centerpiece of her campaign, offered up as proof she passes the MAGA litmus test.

“What I’m hearing is this actually looks pretty, pretty tight, with a lot of undecideds right now,” said Jamey Sandefur, chair of the Livingston Parish GOP. “I’m getting the sense that a lot of people are walking into the booth and deciding when they get there.”

“I’ve always thought that endorsements don’t really matter, but I have heard a lot of people tell me that the Trump endorsement of Congresswoman Letlow is going to be the deciding factor for them,” he said. “So that’s playing in the race a lot more than I had expected.”

Adam Wren contributed reporting.

​Politics

The Republican Party is starting to splinter over support for Israel — and President Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters are largely aligned with the embattled U.S. ally.

New results from The POLITICO Poll find that self-identified “MAGA” Trump voters are more supportive of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and its relationship with the U.S. than those who don’t identify as MAGA but still voted for the president.

Nearly half of MAGA Trump voters say they back Israel and approve of the actions of its current government, while just 29 percent of non-MAGA Trump voters say the same, according to the survey. A plurality of MAGA voters (41 percent) say Israel is justified in its military campaign in Gaza — compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters. And 24 percent of MAGA voters say the country was initially justified but has gone too far, compared with 31 percent of non-MAGA voters.

MAGA voters are moderately supportive of Israel, and the survey suggests they remain more willing to stick with the longtime U.S. ally even as divides inside the party deepen. The emerging fractures carry significant implications for the future of the U.S.-Israel alliance and GOP efforts to keep together the coalition that powered Trump back to the White House in an unfavorable midterm election.

Politics around the Middle East have rapidly changed in recent years. Support for Israel has long divided the Democratic Party, with some Democrats blaming the Biden administration’s approach to Gaza for costing them the White House in 2024. A 35 percent plurality of Americans who voted for Vice President Kamala Harris say Israel was initially justified in its actions in Gaza but has gone too far, while 27 percent say Israel’s military campaign in Gaza was never justified and 28 percent don’t know.

Only 10 percent of Harris voters believe that Israel is still justified in its conduct of the Gaza war. That figure underscores the near-total loss of support among Democrats for a military campaign that drew significant support from the Biden administration.

Republicans were powerfully unified in support of Israel in the immediate aftermath of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack. But amid the war with Iran and a growing unease about Trump’s foreign interventions, the country’s standing appears shaky among the non-MAGA wing of the GOP and among young conservatives. Non-MAGA voters are 10 points more likely than MAGA Trump voters to believe the Israeli government has too much influence over U.S. foreign policy, the survey conducted by Public First found.

Some of those cracks have spilled into public view, with high-profile Republicans like Tucker Carlson, former Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene and Steve Bannon all criticizing America’s close relationship with Israel, especially as the war in Iran escalates. Most Republican members of Congress, as well as conservative influencers like Laura Loomer and Ben Shapiro, have remained pro-Israel voices defending the president’s actions.

“There is a sentiment right now within the Republican Party of, ‘America First,’ let’s get out of all of the conflicts in the world, let’s not be committed to those conflicts,” said Amnon Cavari, an associate professor at Lauder School of Government, Diplomacy and Strategy at Reichman University in Israel.

The poll reflects that dynamic, with a notable share of Trump 2024 voters — 29 percent — saying that the president has spent too much time focusing on international affairs instead of domestic issues.

MAGA Trump voters are more tolerant of Trump’s global agenda, with just 19 percent complaining that he has spent too much time on international affairs. That figure doubles to 40 percent among non-MAGA Trump voters.

The Israel issue is a particularly urgent flash point within the GOP coalition, but POLITICO’s polling shows a consistent gap between Trump voters who identify as “MAGA” and those who do not. That divide has shown up on views of Trump’s deportation campaign,the war in Iran and even his handling of economic concerns.

Generational divides on Israel

The POLITICO Poll finds sharp generational divides among Republicans on issues related to Israel, with the youngest Trump voters more likely than the oldest to express uneasiness over America’s relationship with Israel.

Thirty-two percent of Trump voters below 35 say the U.S. is too closely aligned with Israel’s government, while 11 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

When asked whether the U.S. should distance itself from Israel — even when the two nations face common threats — or work closely with the longtime ally to fend against common threats, the generational divide holds. Nearly half of Trump voters ages 18 to 34 say there should be distance between the two countries, while just 13 percent of Trump voters over 55 say the same.

James Fishback, a far-right 31-year-old Republican gubernatorial candidate in Florida who is highly critical of Israel and has gained traction among younger online “America First” voices, said the GOP is poised for a “massive reckoning” on the Middle Eastern nation, “the first of which we’re going to see this November, and in the primaries right before that.”

“And then we’re set up for the ultimate proxy war on this Israel question in the [2028] Republican primary, and then in the general,” he said. “I just don’t see a staunchly pro-Israel candidate becoming the Republican nominee.”

The generational divide in the GOP in many ways mirrors breaks within the Democratic Party, whose younger voters also hold stronger views against Israel’s influence and actions, driven in large part by the rising death toll and ongoing humanitarian crisis in Gaza, polling shows.

“The fact that [Israel has] lost support among young Democrats is not surprising,” said Cavari. “The fact that they are losing rapidly among young Republicans is especially alarming, and the trend is very clear.”

The AIPAC factor

The involvement of pro-Israel groups in competitive primaries has become a flashpoint on both sides of the aisle.

The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, an influential advocacy group that aims to elect candidatesin both parties who strongly support Israel, has faced backlash for its involvement in Democratic primaries in New Jersey and Illinois. AIPAC is also involved in Republican primaries, and some GOP voters are uneasy about its role.

But AIPAC is also playing on the Republican side — and the GOP is beginning to split over it. The survey finds that MAGA Trump voters are 14 points more supportive of AIPAC’s political interventions than their counterparts in the coalition, while non-MAGA Trump voters are 11 points more likely to oppose AIPAC’s efforts.

Deryn Sousa, a spokesperson for AIPAC, said in a statement that “millions of Americans are members of AIPAC because they want to strengthen an alliance that advances America’s interests and values, and we will stay focused on building the largest possible bipartisan pro-Israel coalition in Congress.”

AIPAC has bundled for several GOP incumbents, including Sens. John Cornyn in Texas and Bill Cassidy in Louisiana, who are both at risk of losing their seats. The group, along with the Republican Jewish Coalition Victory Fund, has also poured millions into attempting to oust GOP Rep. Thomas Massie in Kentucky, in part for opposing aid to Israel and attempting to rein in Trump’s war powers in Iran and elsewhere.

Even as AIPAC has become a dividing line among highly engaged voters in both parties, a 30 percent plurality of Americans have never heard of the organization or don’t know enough to share an opinion.

“Polls will go up and down,” said Patrick Dorton, the spokesperson for AIPAC’s super PAC, United Democracy Project. “Obviously we’re in a post-Gaza, Iran war environment.”

AIPAC’s electoral arm, Dorton said, will continue to be “substantive in making the case for the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

​Politics