Month: March 2026

Democrats watched with mouths agape this week as Latino voters, many of whom have sat out previous primary seasons, turned out in droves for James Talarico in Texas.

But the push to win back the elusive and swingy coalition that proved pivotal to President Donald Trump’s 2024 victory goes way beyond the closely watched Lone Star State. This is a story that kicked off last year as Democrats overperformed in Latino-dominant districts across Virginia and New Jersey. It’s one that multiple candidates and strategists told Playbook could make or break Dems’ ambitions to take the House — and there’s a handful of key districts across the country that will offer the next test cases.

From Colorado to Arizona to Nebraska, top candidates in Democratic primaries are watching the record turnout numbers from Latinos and making these voters a top target for their campaigns to flip their razor-edge districts now held by Republicans. It’s an early bet as they face primaries in the months ahead — but in seats that in the past have been won by less than a percentage point, these voters could make the difference.

“They vote for Trump, they vote for Mikie Sherrill, they just showed up [in Texas] in record numbers,” said Chuck Rocha, a strategist who advised Talarico’s campaign. “So what that tells you is you should start talking to them sooner with a persuadable message.”

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District, the state’s so-called blue dot which is represented by the retiring Republican Rep. Don Bacon, is a top target for Democrats to flip this year. So too is Colorado’s 8th District, held by incumbent Republican Rep. Gabe Evans. There’s also Arizona’s 6th District, which recently was added to the DCCC’s Red-to-Blue program as Democrats aim to edge out incumbent GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani. All of these districts have an influential minority of Latinos that local strategists say are crucial to any Democratic victory.

Enter this crop of Democratic candidates who watched Texas’ results roll in with an eye toward their own races: Denise Powell in Nebraska, Manny Rutinel in Colorado and JoAnna Mendoza in Arizona.

In each district, there’s a growing enthusiasm on the ground among Latinos that indicates they’ll be major players in this cycle. “Especially when you have a contested primary in a year like this, every vote matters,” Powell said in an interview. “And I know that’s something so cliche that we all say and whatever,” she said. But when it comes to Latinos, “we’re not taking anything for granted.”

Rutinel, one of the top Democrats running in Colorado’s 8th, told Playbook he’s buoyed by the surge in Latino voters that he’s seen. “This is Colorado’s most Latino district. It’s drawn for Latino representation,” he said. “And I think folks right now are feeling both scared on the one hand about what’s happening with ICE brutality in this district and beyond, and they’re also feeling energized to fight back.”

And he’s not the only one in the primary watching the Latino vote: former state legislator Shannon Bird has earned the endorsement of top labor unions with Latino membership. “We’ve already knocked on thousands of doors in heavily Hispanic neighborhoods and attended dozens of community and cultural events organized by local Hispanic institutions,” Bird’s campaign manager Eve Zhurbinskiy said in a statement.

Rutinel and his team are leaning into his background to persuade voters ahead of the June 30 election: “I’m the only Latino candidate in this race and bilingual, I have the ability to speak directly to these communities,” he said. Colorado’s 8th was one of the most expensive House races of the 2024 cycle, and it’s 39 percent Latino. Should Rutinel win, he’d face Evans for a Latino vs. Latino showdown.

Over in Arizona, even its lower Latino-dominant districts like the 6th are still heavily influenced by the coalition. “This is just a part of the world where one out of every three people is Latino,” a Democratic strategist working on Arizona races said. It’s a district that contains parts of Tucson, a major Air Force base and more rural on-the-border voters.

The path to victory there for a Democratic candidate like Mendoza is a bit closer: her primary isn’t nearly as contentious, but the district is a toss-up. Ciscomani, in the 2022 midterm season, carried the district by fewer than 6,000 votes. A Mendoza and Ciscomani matchup will make for another Latino vs. Latino showdown.

But of course, whether it be in Colorado, Arizona or Nebraska, the Democratic nominees will inevitably face a tough battle against Republicans, who’ve made significant inroads with Latinos over the past several years. Republicans are still pointing to those significant margins as they get deeper into the primary season and beyond, and they’re projecting confidence that the margins will stick.

“Democrats haven’t learned a thing from the historic realignment among Hispanic voters in recent elections,” RNC spokesperson Zach Kraft said in a statement. Trump’s agenda of “secure borders, safe communities, and a strong economy resonates with all hardworking Americans and is enabling Republicans to be on offense,” he said.

But with Texas delivering such a resounding early sign of Latino engagement for Democrats, the campaigns are growing more bullish that these voters may start trending back in their direction. “We don’t treat Latino voters like a turnout target. We treat them like they are a persuasion target,” the Arizona strategist said.

Latino voters have historically had abysmal turnout in midterm elections. Many report in polls having never interacted with any campaign. It’s making the recent trends all the more eye-popping, and reaffirming Powell’s campaign strategy to target them in a place like Nebraska’s 2nd, where Latinos in South Omaha make up about 10 percent of the district.

Powell is also facing fierce competition to win over the district’s Latinos ahead of the May 12 primary. John Cavanaugh, a state senator and one of the primary front-runners, said in a statement that he’s also pursuing an “aggressive Latino voter contact plan” building on “prominent Latino endorsements, my work with and for the Hispanic community in the Legislature, and my record of showing up in every part of this district.”

The throughline connecting all these campaigns is the significance of the Latino voter margins. Powell said Democratic campaigns like hers were “glued to Texas” to see if the turnout trend would continue to bear out. With all signs pointing to yes, expect the Latino outreach to grow in these must-watch races.

“We’re paying close attention to it,” a Democratic strategist working in Nebraska said. “We’re communicating to [Latino voters] in every way that we possibly can, and making sure they know we need to turn out in this primary.”

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