Reading Time: 4 minutes
Well, we’ve watched all the nominated movies and read all of those “anonymous Academy voter admits to not watching all the nominated movies” articles, and we’re now ready to deliver our annual Oscar predictions!
That’s the good news.
The bad news is, this is one of the most unpredictable races in recent memory, so we wouldn’t go betting the rent money on any of these picks.
With that said, here are our best guesses for tonight’s biggest categories.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
If there’s one acting category that seems close to settled, it’s this one.
Jessie Buckley’s performance in Hamnet has been generating raves for months, and many awards experts believe she’s headed straight for the Dolby Theatre podium tonight.
The Academy loves emotionally devastating performances.
And Buckley delivered one of the year’s best.
Best Actor: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
The Best Actor race has been described as “unpredictable” all season long, with Timothee Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio both looking like the favorites at various points.
But if momentum means anything in Hollywood, Michael B. Jordan appears to have it.
His performance in Sinners has been widely praised, and his upset win at the 2026 BAFTAs makes him the odds-on favorite in the category.
In fact, his win is starting to feel inevitable.
And as we previously discussed, Chalamet’s relentless award season campaign might have actually hurt him here.
Best Supporting Actress: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
If you had predicted a year ago that Teyana Taylor might end up holding an Oscar in 2026, some people probably would have raised an eyebrow.
Now? It seems not only plausible but downright probable.
Taylor’s performance in One Battle After Another has been widely praised throughout award season, with critics applauding the emotional depth she brought to the morally complex role of Perfidia Beverly Hills.
And while this category has been highly competitive, the momentum appears to be swinging in her direction at exactly the right moment.
The Academy loves a breakout performance.
And if the votes fall the way many observers expect, Taylor may be adding “Oscar winner” to her resume before the night is over.
Best Supporting Actor: Sean Penn
If there’s one thing the Academy has always loved, it’s a legendary actor delivering a performance that reminds everyone why he’s been famous for decades.
Enter Sean Penn.
Penn’s turn in One Battle After Another has been generating serious awards buzz for months now, and it feels like the kind of performance that Oscar voters simply can’t resist.
Yes, the category includes several strong contenders.
But Penn has the narrative advantage: a respected industry veteran, a high-profile film, and the sort of intense yet comedic performance that tends to play very well with Academy voters.
In other words?
Don’t be surprised if we see Penn walking onstage tonight with that familiar smirk … and yet another golden statue.
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
This is where things get interesting.
While Sinners might dominate several of the major categories, director Paul Thomas Anderson appears poised to take home Best Director for One Battle After Another.
And frankly, it would be a long-overdue moment.
Anderson has been nominated multiple times without winning — the kind of narrative that tends to motivate Academy voters.
Which means tonight might finally be his night.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another
Usually, by this point in award season, the Best Picture race has a clear frontrunner. That’s not really the case this year.
One Battle After Another got out to an early lead, but with just hours remaining until the big announcement, many prognosticators now have Sinners pulling out an upset win.
Honestly, it could go either way. And while it’s unlikely, there’s even a possibility that the two favorites will split the vote and enable a dark horse like Hamnet to steal the night’s top prize.
This is the Oscars, which means anything could happen. And we’ve seen some wild upsets in recent years.
That said, Best Picture will likely go to either Sinners or OBAA, and both films are certainly deserving.
But given the Academy’s historic disdain for genre fare, we’re giving the slight edge to PTA’s madcap comic masterpiece.
Of course, it’s sure to be a big evening for Sinners, as well. Both films are poised to earn an armload of statuettes on the most unpredictable Oscar night we’ve seen in years.
Oscar Predictions 2026: It’s ‘Sinners’ vs. ‘One Battle After … was originally published on The Hollywood Gossip.
The Hollywood Gossip
