Shortly after news got out that James Van Der Beek had passed away, many of his famous friends contributed to his GoFundMe page and encouraged their followers to do the same.
While it’s nice to see folks rallying behind such a worthy cause, many have been left wondering how James — who first gained fame in his early 20s — could wind up in such dire financial straits in his final years.
James Van Der Beek arrives at the premiere of Prime Video Series “Overcompensating” at Hollywood Palladium on May 14, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Kevin Winter/Getty Images)
Well, for starters, healthcare costs remain astronomical in the US, and James had been battling colorectal cancer since 2024.
But it seems that the Van Der Beeks’ financial situation may have been somewhat uncertain even before James behan his treatments.
In addition to being a father to six children, James says he signed a “bad contract” after being cast on Dawson’s Creek at the age of 20.
“There was no residual money,” he told Today.com in 2012. “It was a bad contract,” he explained. “I saw almost nothing from that.”
James went on to note that he signed on to costar in the short-lived ABC sitcom Don’t Trust the B—- in Apartment 23 in, “when the [Dawson’s Creek] money ran out.”
James Van Der Beek (R) and Kimberly Van Der Beek attend HFCâs Brain Health Dinner on September 30, 2023 in Austin, Texas. (Photo by Rick Kern/Getty Images for Hilarity for Charity)
On the show, James played a fictionalized version of himself who was desperate to revive his flagging acting career.
“It is very easy if you have all the money in the world to just sit back and coast,” he said in the 2012 interview.
“But if you realized that you are going to have to start providing for yourself and for your family, it really forces you to buckle down.”
Actress Rachel True elaborated on the financial realities of modern television in a recent Instagram post:
James Van Der Beek attends the “Overcompensating” Screening And After-Party at Hollywood Palladium on May 14, 2025 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Tommaso Boddi/Getty Images for Prime Video)
“TV shows not on ABC, CBS, or NBC are considered already ‘syndicated’ & all that means they don’t have to pay proper residuals to actors,” she wrote on Wednesday.
“It F’s actors like James out of their deserved financial security & proper legacy ~I did 2 eps of Dawson’s Creek He was a delight.”
Yes, stars of hit TV shows are initially paid well, but Dawson’s Creek wrapped its six-season run way back in 2003, and the days of endless residual checks for syndicated reruns are over.
James went on to wow critics with his work in acclaimed films like 2002’s The Rules of Attraction, but unfortunately, strong reviews don’t equal big paychecks.
Celebrity contributors to James’ GoFundMe include Steven Spielberg, Zoe Saldaña, Dancing With the Stars personality Derek Hough.
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Hoping to preserve his narrow majority, U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson campaigned alongside Matt Van Epps, who narrowly won a December 2025 special election in a strongly Republican district in Tennessee.AP Photo/John Amis
On Feb. 7, 2026, Chasity Verret Martinez won a special election to fill a vacant seat in the Louisiana House. That’s an outcome that might not mean very much to people outside of the state or even outside her Baton Rouge-area district.
Because fewer people turn out for special elections, they’re considered an early predictor of partisan enthusiasm heading into regularly scheduled elections. And with the 2026 midterm elections less than nine months away, analysts are already scrambling for indications of the likely outcome.
As a political scientist who studies congressional elections, I’m interested in the question of whether special elections can really tell us which way the political winds are currently blowing.
In the 2026 election cycle, as in previous ones, prognosticators and political professionals are looking to the outcomes of these intermittent races at various levels of government as a gauge of how voters are feeling about the two parties. And the results from the first 15 months of the second Trump administration appear to spell very bad news for the Republicans.
Setting a baseline
Since Election Day 2024, 88 special elections featuring candidates from both major parties have taken place for institutions including state legislatures and the U.S. House.
When analyzing the results of these races, it’s important to have figures to compare them to. After all, a Democrat just barely squeaking by in a state legislative race may not look very impressive on its face – but if that race took place in the rural heart of a red state, it could raise hackles among Republicans.
New York Democrat Hakeem Jeffries would likely become the first Black U.S. speaker of the House if Democrats win a majority in 2026. AP Photo/Rod Lamkey
Most political analysts agree that the best available comparison point for special elections are the results for the most recent presidential election in that same district. There are a few reasons for this.
Second, using presidential results creates the same baseline for all races. By comparing special election results to the prior election environment, all the special election results get compared to the same standard.
Finally, and perhaps most importantly, recent midterm elections have typically served as a referendum on the party in power, particularly the president. In trying to measure how voters are reacting to Trump’s second term, it makes sense to measure their behavior against the last time Trump was on the ballot.
Conversely, in 2018 – like this year, a midterm following a Trump election – Democrats bested Republicans by 8 percentage points in November, after overperforming Hillary Clinton’s 2016 margins in special elections throughout the previous two years by 9 percentage points on average.
The 2024 cycle is a clear exception to this pattern of regular elections closely following special election results: Prior to the presidential election, Democrats outperformed in special elections by an average of 4 percentage points but ended up losing nationally by 3 percentage points in November.
Like special elections, midterm contests tend to turn out fewer but more engaged voters than presidential years. Therefore, it may be that special elections are more predictive of midterm results than presidential cycles. At any rate, if previous midterm outcomes are any guide, the numbers being posted by Democrats in special elections so far in the 2026 cycle are impossible to ignore.
On average, they’re running ahead of Harris’s 2024 margins by a whopping 13 percentage points. That’s better than they did in 2018, when they ultimately picked up 40 seats in the House and seven governorships across the country.
What’s different about specials?
Democrats, however, may not want to pop the champagne corks just yet. Many roadblocks remain in their quest to take back control of Congress. For one thing, the U.S. Senate map remains a difficult one for Democrats. Even if they end up creating a 2018-like election environment with an unpopular president, many Senate contests are taking place in solidly red states.
It’s also always worth bearing in mind that there’s no telling how the events of the next nine months might reshape public opinion.
U.S. Sen. Susan Collins of Maine has proved an elusive target for Democrats in a state they carry at the presidential level. AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite
And special elections, while useful metrics, are far from perfect barometers of public opinion. They take place at different times, and could be just as reflective of hyperlocal factors, such as flawed candidates, as they are of nationalized partisan conditions.
Special elections tend to have far lower turnout than regular midterm or presidential contests. It’s also difficult to tell whether overperformance is due to highly motivated partisans or persuasion of independents and voters from the other party.
Using all the tools available
Still, special elections do have key advantages over traditional polling. Although polls do their best to approximate voters’ political attitudes, elections reveal these attitudes through voters’ actual, observed behavior – exactly the type of behavior that analysts are trying to predict in November.
In the end, special elections are just one piece of the prediction puzzle. But the other puzzle pieces are also spelling out potential bad news for the GOP.
The generic ballot, a standard polling question that asks voters’ intent to vote for one party or the other in November without naming specific candidates, has the GOP about 6 percentage points behind the Democrats. Trump’s approval rating, meanwhile, continues to hover below 40%.
There’s no telling for sure whether these indicators will turn out to be truly predictive until November. But all of them should be sounding alarm bells for Republicans.
Charlie Hunt does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
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Every week political cartoonists throughout the country and across the political spectrum apply their ink-stained skills to capture the foibles, memes, hypocrisies and other head-slapping events in the world of politics. The fruits of these labors are hundreds of cartoons that entertain and enrage readers of all political stripes. Here’s an offering of the best of this week’s crop, picked fresh off the Toonosphere. Edited by Matt Wuerker.Politics
Rahm Emanuel is embarking on a three-day swing through the crucial swing-state of Michigan this weekend. But he’s not just dropping in to help boost down-ballot Democratic candidates — he’s also visiting some trade schools to unveil yet another policy proposal.
The moves raise the question: Is he presenting the planks of a larger platform that he can run on for president? Or is he headfaking a run to build buzz and draw interest to his ideas, redirecting the field to where he thinks the party’s intellectual center of gravity should be?
“I’m going to continue to lay out changes — reforms — that I think address the challenges Americans are facing today. And that is how to get an education that affords and ensures access to the American dream,” Emanuel said in an interview when asked about his motivations.
His latest plan is aimed at helping military service members transition back to civilian life through the skilled trades.
The proposal would give 20,000 departing service members a $10,000 tax-free sign-on bonus to enroll in a registered apprenticeship to become electricians, carpenters, plumbers and construction workers over a five-year period. The $200 million plan would be paid for by eliminating a tax “giveaway” from President Donald Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act for private colleges, Emanuel said.
“We do a signing bonus of $50,000 to go into ICE and become a lawless mob, yet we have people that have the potential to be a carpenter, electrician, a pipe fitter, an operating engineer, a laborer, and we don’t do anything,” said Emanuel.
His plan is his fourth policy rollout in almost as many months, and months before the midterm election that most Democrats are focused on, as well as years ahead of what could be a crowded 2028 presidential primary. His other proposals include banning children under 16 from social media; forcing public officials to retire at 75; and boosting literacy. And he has said he is ramping up his 2026travel outside of the coasts to the middle of the country.
Emanuel’s blizzard of white papers stands in contrast to his potential 2028 foes.
Many of Emanuel’s would-be rivals are still in office and can point to concrete governing or legislating proposals. Others eyeing a run who are back in private life have sought different paths, like former Democratic nominee Kamala Harris, who has been traveling and promoting her book, and former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigeig, who recently held a Wisconsin town hall and has been making the rounds on the podcast circuit.
But Emanuel, the former U.S. ambassador to Japan, Chicago mayor, White House chief of staff and congressman, doesn’t currently have an official day job to leverage to execute policy changes or get himself noticed. He’s instead spent more time on cable TV and podcasts while developing what amounts to an education policy vision.
“There are some people that want to emphasize the resistance to Donald Trump, and there’s a lot to resist. I am about fighting for America as much as about fighting Donald Trump,” Emanuel said.
He cited several recent moments that have shaped his thinking, including a warning from Michigan-based Ford CEO Jim Farley, who has issued a warning that the U.S. faces a one-million jobs shortage of skilled workers. He also mentioned a private dinner with Dario Amodei, the CEO of the fast-growing AI startup Anthropic. “No AI can destroy these jobs,” Emanuel told POLITICO.
At one point in explaining his belief in the “power of ideas” to shape politics, Emanuel seemed to suggest the idea of running before catching himself.
“If you’re going to r— think about public life,” he said, redirecting his sentence midstream, “you got to answer these challenges.”
