ALBANY, New York — Gov. Kathy Hochul is trying to center her reelection campaign on the cost of living. Doing so is putting her at odds with both the populist left and a resurgent Republican right.
She faces left-flank pressure to raise taxes on rich people so that New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s expensive agenda comes to fruition. On the right, Republicans have pledged to exploit any effort to support Mamdani’s goals as a sign the moderate Democrat is beholden to the upstart democratic socialist.
Hochul holds wide leads over likely Republican nominee Bruce Blakeman and primary challenger Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, but the strength of her campaign will be vital for down-ballot Democratic candidates running in crucial House races. New York’s swing Congressional districts have the potential to determine control of the closely divided chamber and the future of Trump’s presidency.
Yet she must still work with both the untested mayor who vowed at his inauguration to govern unapologetically from the left and the volatile Republican president eager to shape the fate of Democratic-led states. Veteran politicians aren’t envious of the challenge she faces.
“I’m glad it’s Gov. Hochul and not me,” former Gov. David Paterson said. “You’re dealing with two very excitable people who are on opposite ends of the spectrum. My only suggestion to her is let them yell and criticize, but be the voice of reason. It’s putting yourself out there to your fellow New Yorkers.”
Yet the governor is showing signs that she’s willing to blend the policies of both the mercurial president and rookie mayor — making cost concerns a centerpiece for the coming year amid the expectation voters will reward her for sympathizing with their pocketbook problems.
Hochul plans to make a major push for free child care, a signature Mamdani proposal and an issue she’s supported during her time in office, with a multi-year plan to phase in a statewide program, she said in a recent radio interview — essentially backing a downpayment with the promise of future installments if she wins reelection. The governor also embraced a Trump-backed proposal to cap taxes on tips at the state level amid Republican pressure to do so, signaling plans to introduce legislation this year to the Democratic-dominated Legislature, which is set to reconvene Wednesday in Albany.
“As we welcome in the New Year, affordability remains my top priority and I am doubling down on my commitment to put money back in New Yorkers’ pockets,” Hochul said last week.
The governor, though, is facing opponents who will try to lay claim to the affordability mantle that Mamdani leveraged so effectively in his longshot bid for mayor. That will put pressure on Hochul to deliver on these populist themes — or potentially face the electoral consequences.
“Politicians are the original copycats,” said Democratic strategist Austin Shafran. “Zohran masterfully articulated an affordability agenda and was able to articulate concerns to a broader electorate. You’re going to see a lot of people try to thematically copy the message of his campaign and that may counteract a lot of the uncertainty.”
Hochul’s reelection will hinge on whether she can adroitly navigate a destabilizing populist tide that has consumed this political era — defined by voters fed up with rising costs and elections won by norm-shattering politicians like Trump and Mamdani. Hochul is drawing energetic challenges from Delgado, her own hand-picked lieutenant governor who is trying to channel Mamdani’s victory in his uphill bid, and Blakeman, a Trump-backed Republican who hails from a suburban bellwether county.
Impatient voters are increasingly willing to punish any candidate who fails to grasp their cost-of-living concerns. How Hochul adapts to this political moment will determine her electoral fate — and potentially provide a roadmap for fellow moderates struggling to make the center hold.
Mollifying voters’ affordability concerns is not an easy task and Trump’s low marks over his handling of the economy is a case in point. The president’s insistence that inflation is tamed, prices are down and the economy under his watch is on the rebound runs the risk of replicating voters’ complaints that Democrats were oblivious to how they felt about their financial plight.
Further complicating Hochul’s year is the unusual bind she finds herself in — essentially sandwiched between the two main characters of America’s political drama.
Mamdani’s free child care and bus service must be approved by Albany and will be difficult to deliver to voters in a deeply expensive city. Increasing taxes on wealthy New Yorkers and large corporations, while politically popular and drew enthusiastic cheers during Mamdani’s inaugural speech, opens Hochul up to Republican attacks as she runs for reelection. Trump may further meddle in his native state’s affairs by slashing federal spending to the Empire State. His administration shelved two offshore wind projects, including one near the Long Island coast, and Trump recently expressed frustration to Hochul with a controversial Manhattan toll known as congestion pricing.
Voters are willing to turn to Hochul-like moderates amid the Trump 2.0 era. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger decisively beat Republican Winsome Earle-Sears. Mikie Sherrill retained the New Jersey governor’s office for Democrats by a double-digit margin — bucking an historical trend in the process.
Hochul, who often references her family’s economic challenges growing up in the Buffalo area, was sensitive to affordability concerns before it was a buzzy political concern.
As a new governor, Hochul backed a temporary suspension of the state’s tax on gasoline. She’s touted rebate checks to taxpayers, framed as a way of combating inflation. Hochul scaled back green energy plans amid widespread concerns over spiking utility bills — drawing complaints from environmental activists. And she reduced a controversial Manhattan toll from $15 to $9 after delaying its implementation for six months ahead of the 2024 elections out of political concerns.
But the political environment is giving her less leeway to pick and choose her policy fights.
This year, the staid governor is contending with a celebrity New York City mayor whose ardent left-leaning base will pressure her to back policies she’s been hesitant to embrace, like raising taxes. Hochul has repeatedly ruled out boosting income tax rates on the richest New Yorkers, but has hedged over hiking levies on large corporations.
Republicans pressed Hochul to back Trump’s push to cap taxes on tips by instituting a similar policy on the state level. After the governor announced her support to end taxes on up to $25,000 in tipped income, Blakeman’s campaign accused her of flip flopping on the issue — though her campaign said she never outright opposed the measure.
“Kathy, if you want more of my ‘tips’ on how to govern, just continue to follow my lead,” Blakeman, the Nassau County executive, said in a statement.
Left-leaning advocates, meanwhile, are mounting a renewed push for another state-level minimum wage increase — a move that is opposed by the governor’s allies in the business community. Hochul approved a 2023 measure that will link future wage hikes to the rate of inflation.
Hochul’s political bet, in part, is on voters preferring a steady hand on the wheel in an age of political disruption that has benefited both Trump and Mamdani. At the same time, she has strived to counter the president, including a successful effort that got him to restore $187 million in Homeland Security funding.
“She doesn’t have to be the disruptive leader that follows this trend because that might seem inauthentic,” said Basil Smikle, a former executive director of the state Democratic Committee. “What she does need to do is find a way to create a strong relationship with Mamdani. He can be the disruptive politician and be a counterweight to that, but still give a pathway to bring a lot of policies to the forefront.”
The new mayor has forged a publicly steady relationship with the governor despite their differences on key issues like Israel. Hochul has also approved of Mamdani’s hires, most notably the retention of Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch — a favorite of the city’s business community.
Mamdani remains a lightning rod, though, especially among Jewish voters and suburbanites — constituencies the governor will need as she begins to campaign in earnest. The new mayor kicked off a firestorm on his first day in office when he revoked several executive orders meant to bolster Israel and deleted old tweets from his office’s X account about fighting antisemitism.
Blakeman, Hochul’s likely November opponent, is already blasting her for aligning herself with the 34-year-old democratic socialist. Hochul’s political standing is tied in large part to the incoming mayor’s success.
“It depends on how Mamdani does,” said longtime Democratic strategist Hank Sheinkopf. “If Mamdani fails in the first six months, then she’ll take a beating.”
Politics
